Resources Policy最新文献

Social change and social conflict in Zambian Copperbelt mine communities 赞比亚铜带矿区社区的社会变革和社会冲突

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105815

Lisa Kwaleyela , Miles Larmer

Social conflict has risen in Zambia's Copperbelt region in the past decade, as new private mine owners confront mine communities unwilling to accept the unequal and (from their perspective) unjust distribution of mining wealth. The historically low level of social provision by these mine companies is, this article argues, a significant generator of community grievances and broader social conflict. Company-community relations and social provision – mainly in the form of Corporate Social Responsibility programmes - are however particularly problematic because they are based on an outdated construction of community identity that foregrounds (mainly male) employees and their families. This fails to recognize the transformation in mine community composition, governance, and representation that has taken place since privatisation in the late 1990s/early 2000s, creating more diverse communities that are however profoundly affected by mining activity. This article, drawing on research conducted in Zambia between 2022 and 2023, argues that the marginalization of actually existing mine communities – both in representational terms and in recognition of their specific grievances – has contributed to rising social conflict in the region. Our research further demonstrates a complex interplay of the legacy of earlier company social provision for, and problematic representation of, mine communities and community identity and claim-making based on their collective memory of this earlier period.

在过去的十年里，赞比亚铜带地区的社会冲突有所上升，因为新的私人矿主面临着不愿意接受不平等和（从他们的角度来看）不公正的矿业财富分配的矿区社区。这篇文章认为，这些矿业公司的社会供给水平处于历史低位，是社区不满和更广泛的社会冲突的重要根源。然而，公司-社区关系和社会服务——主要以企业社会责任计划的形式——问题尤其严重，因为它们是基于一种过时的社区认同结构，即优先考虑（主要是男性）员工及其家庭。这没有认识到自20世纪90年代末至21世纪初私有化以来，矿业社区的组成、治理和代表性发生了转变，创造了更加多样化的社区，尽管这些社区受到矿业活动的深刻影响。本文根据2022年至2023年在赞比亚进行的研究，认为实际存在的矿山社区的边缘化——无论是在代表性方面还是在承认他们的具体不满方面——都导致了该地区社会冲突的加剧。我们的研究进一步证明了早期公司社会提供的遗产和有问题的代表之间的复杂相互作用，以及基于他们对早期的集体记忆的社区身份和索赔。

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引用次数: 0

The long-run price versus the price in the long term for mineral and energy commodities 长期价格相对于矿物和能源商品的长期价格

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105822

Juan Ignacio Guzmán

Long-term price assumptions for mineral and energy commodities underpin multi-billion-dollar investment decisions and resource policies, yet the industry's standard metric – the long-run price – is often misused as a forecast rather than what it truly represents: a static equilibrium benchmark. This paper clarifies the crucial distinction between the long-run price (a cost-based competitive equilibrium level) and the price in the long term (an expected, stochastic path of future market prices), showing how conflating the two can lead to systematic planning errors. Through a historical review and a detailed copper case study, we document persistent multi-year deviations of actual prices from cost-derived incentive price levels, driven by investment lags, boom–bust cycles, policy shocks, and technological change. We then propose a more robust conceptual framework for long-term price estimation under uncertainty. The framework retains the supply-cost “incentive price” as an anchor but embeds it within a dynamic model that incorporates: (1) probabilistic price trajectories (reflecting volatility and cyclical mean reversion), (2) real-options-based investment triggers that exceed simple breakeven levels, and (3) a second anchor – a very long-run price (VLRP) – to capture evolving structural forces like resource depletion, innovation, and substitution. By linking the mid-horizon long-run price to this distant-horizon VLRP, we generate internally consistent price scenarios rather than a single-point forecast. This risk-aware approach yields actionable guidelines for both firms and policymakers. Mining companies can make better investment timing and hedging decisions, while governments can design more adaptive policies (e.g., sliding-scale royalties, strategic reserves) to avoid procyclical pitfalls. Overall, the paper's contribution is conceptual although practical recommendations are made for its application. The paper bridges the gap between static equilibrium theory and real-world price dynamics, introduces the VLRP concept as a moving long-term anchor, and demonstrates how incorporating uncertainty and flexibility can improve long-term commodity price planning for both industry and policy.

矿产和能源大宗商品的长期价格假设支撑着数十亿美元的投资决策和资源政策，但该行业的标准指标——长期价格——经常被误用为一种预测，而不是它真正代表的：一个静态平衡基准。本文阐明了长期价格（基于成本的竞争均衡水平）和长期价格（未来市场价格的预期随机路径）之间的关键区别，展示了将两者混为一谈是如何导致系统性规划错误的。通过历史回顾和详细的铜案例研究，我们记录了在投资滞后、盛衰周期、政策冲击和技术变革的驱动下，实际价格与成本衍生的激励价格水平之间持续多年的偏差。然后，我们提出了一个更稳健的概念框架，用于不确定性下的长期价格估计。该框架保留了供给成本“激励价格”作为锚，但将其嵌入到一个动态模型中，该模型包含：(1)概率价格轨迹（反映波动性和周期性均值回归），(2)基于实物期权的超过简单盈亏平衡水平的投资触发因素，以及(3)第二个锚——非常长期价格（VLRP）——以捕捉不断变化的结构性力量，如资源枯竭、创新和替代。通过将中期长期价格与远期VLRP联系起来，我们产生了内部一致的价格情景，而不是单点预测。这种风险意识的方法为公司和决策者提供了可操作的指导方针。矿业公司可以做出更好的投资时机和对冲决策，而政府可以设计更具适应性的政策（例如，滑动比例特许权使用费、战略储备），以避免顺周期陷阱。总的来说，本文的贡献是概念性的，尽管对其应用提出了实际的建议。本文弥合了静态均衡理论和现实世界价格动态之间的差距，介绍了VLRP概念作为一个移动的长期锚，并展示了如何将不确定性和灵活性结合起来，可以改善行业和政策的长期商品价格规划。

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引用次数: 0

Are some minerals more governable? Copper mining materialities and formalization of artisanal and small-scale mining in Peru 有些矿产更容易治理吗？秘鲁的铜矿开采材料和手工和小规模采矿的正规化

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105813

Luis Meléndez , Sandra McKay

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is one of the main non-agricultural activities in the developing world, despite its often informal or illegal status. The formalization of ASM has been central in efforts to address the sector's challenges and enhance its potential for rural livelihoods. However, in Latin America, much of the academic and policy focus on ASM has been on gold mining, with standardized approaches to resource governance that overlook the sector's diversity. Such perspectives fail to address the distinct possibilities and constraints of formalization, which often vary depending on the mineral type and geological conditions. Based on extensive ethnographic and qualitative research in northern Peru, this article examines how the materiality of copper-rich mineral extraction has facilitated artisanal miners' progress in the formalization process. Without falling into geological reductionism, we argue that the material and geological properties of copper-rich deposits in some ASM mine sites can catalyze socio-political arrangements and technical transitions aligned with the goals of Peru's formalization policy. In line with this argument, we first show how copper's geological characteristics discourage the use of cyanide and mercury, thereby promoting more environmentally acceptable mining practices. Secondly, we explore how the necessity for deep mining in copper extraction encourages capitalization, technological innovation, and professionalization of mining activities. Finally, we discuss how security and logistical challenges involved in the transportation of large volumes of copper-rich raw minerals incentivize formalization. By focusing on non-gold ASM, this research contributes to a growing body of literature on the factors that influence formalization efforts, underscoring the pivotal role of resource materiality.

手工和小规模采矿是发展中国家的主要非农业活动之一，尽管其往往是非正式或非法的。ASM的正规化一直是解决该部门挑战和提高其对农村生计潜力的努力的核心。然而，在拉丁美洲，ASM的学术和政策重点大多集中在金矿开采上，其资源治理的标准化方法忽视了该行业的多样性。这种观点没有考虑到形式化的独特可能性和限制因素，这些因素往往因矿物类型和地质条件而异。基于对秘鲁北部广泛的人种学和定性研究，本文考察了富含铜的矿物开采的重要性如何促进了手工矿工在正规化过程中的进步。在不陷入地质还原论的情况下，我们认为，一些ASM矿区的富铜矿的物质和地质性质可以催化社会政治安排和技术转型，与秘鲁正规化政策的目标一致。根据这一论点，我们首先展示了铜的地质特征如何阻止氰化物和汞的使用，从而促进更环保的采矿实践。其次，我们探讨了铜开采中深部开采的必要性如何鼓励采矿活动的资本化、技术创新和专业化。最后，我们讨论了大量富含铜的原料矿物运输中涉及的安全和后勤挑战如何激励正规化。通过关注非黄金的ASM，本研究为影响形式化努力的因素提供了越来越多的文献，强调了资源物质性的关键作用。

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引用次数: 0

Examination of the impacts of systemic financial stress on precious metal prices 考察系统性金融压力对贵金属价格的影响

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105809

Oguzhan Ozcelebi , Jose A. Pérez-Montiel , Carles Manera

This study investigates the causal effects of systemic financial stress indicators on gold and silver price returns. We use time-varying causality and quantile-based techniques with weekly data for the period September 28, 2012, to January 27, 2023. The results of the time-varying causality test indicate that systemic financial stress has a persistent causal impact on gold and silver prices in certain dates, which suggests the relevant role of the COVID-19 on the relationship between the variables. On the other hand, the results of the multi-scale quantile Granger causality tests indicate that large negative/positive variations in the systemic financial stress indicators significantly affect gold and silver prices, which can influence the safe-haven asset role of precious metals. Finally, within the framework of an asymmetric quantile regression model, we reveal the regimes under which increases in the financial stress indicators affect gold prices in the short, medium, and long run. We find that increases in systemic financial stress reinforce the role of gold as a safe-haven asset, while the fading of the conditions leading to financial stress leads to the fall of silver prices in the short run.

本研究探讨了系统性金融压力指标对金银价格收益的因果关系。我们对2012年9月28日至2023年1月27日期间的每周数据使用时变因果关系和基于分位数的技术。时变因果检验结果表明，系统性金融压力对金银价格在一定时间内存在持续的因果影响，这表明新冠肺炎疫情对变量之间的关系具有相关作用。另一方面，多尺度分位数格兰杰因果检验结果表明，系统性金融压力指标的较大负/正变化显著影响黄金和白银价格，从而影响贵金属的避险资产作用。最后，在非对称分位数回归模型的框架内，我们揭示了金融压力指标的增加在短期、中期和长期影响黄金价格的机制。我们发现，系统性金融压力的增加强化了黄金作为避险资产的作用，而导致金融压力的条件的消退导致白银价格在短期内下跌。

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引用次数: 0

The EV transition: The impact of the EU battery directive on critical material supply, recycling and battery costs 电动汽车转型：欧盟电池指令对关键材料供应、回收和电池成本的影响

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105787

Malene Fumany , Viet Nguyen-Tien , Nanxi Li , Robert J.R. Elliott , Laura Lander

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are central to the European Union's (EU) Net Zero strategies. Yet, rising regulatory pressures and geopolitical tensions have increased the risk of supply chain bottlenecks for strategic and critical materials such as nickel and cobalt, posing threats not only to the EU's decarbonisation agenda but also to global Net Zero ambitions. In response, EU policymakers have accelerated efforts to develop local battery ecosystems including the recycling of end-of-life LIBs. However, the potential impact of these interventions on material dependencies and battery economics is not well understood. This paper introduces a novel policy-economic framework to assess the prospective evolution of the LIB recycling sector in response to policy changes introduced by the EU Battery Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1542). In particular, drawing on an industry-led survey, the framework evaluates the impact of the mandated minimum recycled content on material flow and battery costs. The results reveal that the Battery Regulation may increase battery cell costs by up to 15 %. While this study is EU-specific, its findings carry broader relevance for international battery policy and market dynamics and provides new evidence on how international policies may impact the future of the battery sector.

锂离子电池（lib）是欧盟（EU）净零排放战略的核心。然而，不断上升的监管压力和地缘政治紧张局势增加了镍和钴等战略和关键材料出现供应链瓶颈的风险，这不仅对欧盟的脱碳议程构成威胁，也对全球净零排放的雄心构成威胁。作为回应，欧盟政策制定者加快了发展当地电池生态系统的努力，包括回收废旧锂电池。然而，这些干预措施对材料依赖性和电池经济性的潜在影响尚未得到很好的理解。本文介绍了一个新的政策经济框架来评估LIB回收部门的未来发展，以响应欧盟电池法规（法规（EU） 2023/1542）引入的政策变化。特别是，根据一项行业主导的调查，该框架评估了规定的最低回收含量对物料流和电池成本的影响。结果显示，电池法规可能会使电池成本增加15%。虽然这项研究是针对欧盟的，但其研究结果对国际电池政策和市场动态具有更广泛的相关性，并为国际政策如何影响电池行业的未来提供了新的证据。

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引用次数: 0

From path dependency to path renewal? The reinvention of local economies in rural resource communities in Newfoundland and Labrador through partnerships 从路径依赖到路径更新？通过伙伴关系重塑纽芬兰和拉布拉多农村资源社区的地方经济

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105816

Joshua Barrett

Rural areas are predisposed with rich natural assets which are attractive to resource-based sectors, ranging from renewables, such as fishery to forestry, to non-renewables, including mining and oil and gas. Despite the potential benefit of these sectors to the local economy, rural communities often entrench themselves in a path dependent relationship with these commodities, creating barriers to facilitate economic diversification opportunities, paired with the cyclic nature of the boom-bust cycle. Using Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, as a case study, this paper highlights ways that rural communities can reinvent their local economies by redefining their path dependency arrangements and experience path renewal. The Towns of Fogo Island, Bonavista, Grand Falls-Windsor, and the Great Northern Peninsula have been effective in utilizing economic development partnerships to help transform governance in their communities that has helped break path dependency. These findings have potential to assist resource-dependent communities in their rural economic development activities.

农村地区拥有丰富的自然资产，对资源型部门具有吸引力，从渔业、林业等可再生能源到包括采矿、石油和天然气在内的非可再生能源。尽管这些部门对当地经济有潜在的好处，但农村社区往往与这些商品建立一种路径依赖关系，为促进经济多样化机会制造障碍，再加上繁荣-萧条周期的周期性。本文以加拿大纽芬兰和拉布拉多为例，强调了农村社区可以通过重新定义路径依赖安排和经历路径更新来重塑当地经济的方式。福戈岛镇、博纳维斯塔镇、大瀑布-温莎镇和大北方半岛镇有效地利用经济发展伙伴关系，帮助改变社区的治理方式，从而打破了对道路的依赖。这些发现有可能帮助依赖资源的社区开展农村经济发展活动。

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引用次数: 0

Financing circularity strategies in critical raw materials supply chains: Toward a novel blended framework 关键原材料供应链中的融资循环策略：走向一种新的混合框架

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105811

Kaiyu Xie , Marcos R. Machado , Laura Spierdijk , Devrim Murat Yazan

The transition to a circular economy (CE) has gained significant attention as a strategy to enhance sustainability across resource-intensive industries. However, its application within critical raw materials (CRMs) supply chains — and its potential to mitigate upstream supply risks — remains insufficiently explored. A key gap concerns how CRMs-dependent businesses can access the financial resources required to implement circularity strategies effectively. This study addresses that gap by synthesizing existing literature and proposing a Novel Blended Framework comprising two complementary components. First, we introduce a Circular Strategy–Risk Diagnostic Cube that enables firms to map specific categories of supply disruption to context-appropriate circularity strategies. Second, we develop an Integrated Financing Architecture that identifies how public, private, and hybrid financing instruments can be combined to support these strategies, given the diverse risk profiles and capital needs of CE initiatives. Drawing on the perspectives of three key stakeholder groups — CRMs-dependent businesses, private financial entities, and the public sector — we identify critical funding challenges, outline actionable pathways to improve access to finance and capital, and formulate a research agenda to strengthen the financial underpinnings of circular transitions. Our findings offer both theoretical advancements and practical recommendations, emphasizing the need for collective action across sectors to achieve sustainable and financially viable CRMs supply chains.

向循环经济过渡作为一种提高资源密集型产业可持续性的战略，已经引起了广泛关注。然而，它在关键原材料（crm）供应链中的应用及其减轻上游供应风险的潜力仍未得到充分探索。一个关键的差距涉及依赖crm的企业如何获得有效实施循环战略所需的财务资源。本研究通过综合现有文献并提出一个由两个互补部分组成的新型混合框架来解决这一差距。首先，我们引入了一个循环策略-风险诊断立方体，使公司能够将特定类别的供应中断映射到适合上下文的循环策略。其次，我们开发了一个综合融资架构，以确定如何结合公共、私人和混合融资工具来支持这些战略，考虑到不同的风险概况和资本需求的环保项目。根据依赖crm的企业、私营金融实体和公共部门这三个关键利益相关者群体的观点，我们确定了关键的融资挑战，概述了改善融资和资本获取的可行途径，并制定了一项研究议程，以加强循环转型的金融基础。我们的研究结果提供了理论进步和实践建议，强调需要跨部门采取集体行动，以实现可持续和财务上可行的crm供应链。

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引用次数: 0

Environmental governance and resource policy in Iran's oil and gas sector: A game-theoretic approach 伊朗油气行业的环境治理和资源政策：博弈论方法

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105814

Mohammad Hossein Jahangiri , Yadollah Bahramian

This paper examines why environmental non-compliance persists in Iran's oil and gas sector despite the existence of formal regulations and expanding regulatory budgets. We develop a non-cooperative, simultaneous-move game between oil contractors and NIOC supervisors under imperfect detection by the regulator. The model demonstrates that compliance depends on two critical deterrence mechanisms: (i) contractor deterrence, where the expected environmental fine exceeds the total gain from non-compliance (

δ F \geq S + C_{e}

), and (ii) supervisory incentive alignment, where the expected penalty for negligence outweighs collusion incentives (

b S \leq β + (1 - δ) γ

).

The equilibrium analysis shows that low detection probability, weak enforcement sanctions, production-biased incentive structures, and high collusion risk drive the system toward a stable non-compliance equilibrium. Using empirical illustrations from Iran's major oil and gas fields—such as gas flaring, air pollution, and regulatory budget trends—we identify a persistent “enforcement gap”, where increasing environmental expenditures fail to translate into effective compliance.

This study contributes to the environmental governance literature by linking institutional incentives to environmental outcomes through a formalized game-theoretic framework. The findings highlight the central role of strengthening detection capacity, enhancing penalty credibility, reducing collusion risks, and redesigning supervisory incentives in shifting the system toward a self-enforcing compliance equilibrium.

本文探讨了尽管存在正式法规和不断扩大的监管预算，但伊朗石油和天然气部门的环境违规行为仍然存在的原因。我们在监管机构不完全检测的情况下，开发了石油承包商和NIOC监管机构之间的非合作、同步博弈。该模型表明，合规取决于两个关键的威慑机制：(i)承包商威慑，其中预期的环境罚款超过不合规的总收益（δ f≥S+Ce）；（ii）监管激励一致性，其中疏忽的预期惩罚超过共谋激励（bS≤β+(1−δ)γ）。均衡分析表明，低发现概率、弱执行制裁、偏向生产的激励结构和高共谋风险驱动系统向稳定的不合规均衡发展。通过对伊朗主要油气田（如天然气燃烧、空气污染和监管预算趋势）的实证分析，我们发现了一个持续存在的“执法缺口”，即不断增加的环境支出未能转化为有效的合规。本研究通过正式的博弈论框架将制度激励与环境结果联系起来，为环境治理文献做出了贡献。研究结果强调了加强检测能力、提高处罚可信度、降低共谋风险和重新设计监管激励机制在将系统转向自我执行合规平衡方面的核心作用。

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引用次数: 0

Mining Is Dead. Long Live Geopolitical Mining: Why critical minerals and strategic power will define the next global order, 2025 矿业已死。《地缘政治矿业万岁：为什么关键矿产和战略力量将决定下一个全球秩序》，2025年

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105800

Hugo Morão

引用次数: 0

Scandium extraction from Malaysian industrial waste: Challenges and opportunities for a sustainable energy future 从马来西亚工业废料中提取钪：可持续能源未来的挑战和机遇

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105810

Eli Syafiqah Aziman , Aznan Fazli Ismail , Mohd Syukri Yahya , Batari Toja Iskandar

The power generation sector in Malaysia is under considerable pressure to achieve the nation's commitment to carbon neutrality, primarily due to its substantial dependence on coal. To address these issues, Malaysia has prioritised the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy (RE) sources for electricity generation. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are a promising renewable technology under consideration by the government to address consumer energy demand in Malaysia. The element Scandium (Sc) is primarily utilized in the third generation of SOFC, which consequently increases the demand for scandium oxide in the global market. The increased demand coupled with restricted supply, leading to higher prices of scandium oxide, could significantly impact Malaysia's renewable energy policy regarding the implementation of SOFC in its energy sector. The review examines methods for extracting scandium from a potential industrial waste in Malaysia. To effectively explore the potential and sustainability of SOFC energy in Malaysia, the government must focus on three key parameters: resource mapping and policy reform, lab-to-pilot scale technology development (TRL3–6), industry-government R&D partnerships and commercialization, full integration into the circular economy through sustainable scandium recovery from residues, strengthening environmental and social governance and enhancing ASEAN level cooperation to support regional critical mineral resilience. A framework addressing these six parameters is proposed to facilitate the integration of potential scandium sources from industrial waste into Malaysia's energy system.

由于对煤炭的严重依赖，马来西亚的发电部门在实现国家对碳中和的承诺方面面临着相当大的压力。为了解决这些问题，马来西亚优先考虑从化石燃料转向可再生能源（RE）发电。固体氧化物燃料电池（sofc）是马来西亚政府正在考虑的一项有前途的可再生技术，以满足消费者的能源需求。钪（Sc）元素主要用于第三代SOFC，因此增加了全球市场对氧化钪的需求。需求增加加上供应受限，导致氧化钪价格上涨，可能会严重影响马来西亚在能源部门实施SOFC的可再生能源政策。该审查审查了从马来西亚潜在的工业废物中提取钪的方法。为了有效探索马来西亚SOFC能源的潜力和可持续性，政府必须关注三个关键参数：资源测绘和政策改革、实验室到试点规模的技术开发（TRL3-6）、产业-政府研发伙伴关系和商业化、通过可持续的钪残留物回收充分融入循环经济、加强环境和社会治理、加强东盟层面的合作，以支持区域关键矿产的恢复能力。提出了一个解决这六个参数的框架，以促进将工业废物中的潜在钪源整合到马来西亚的能源系统中。

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引用次数: 0