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Prediction of coal mine risk based on BN-ELM: Gas risk early warning including human factors
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105295

Addressing the challenge of integrating quantitative risk data with qualitative behavioral risk information in coal mine safety production, this study, taking gas risk as an example, proposes a BN-ELM (Bayesian Network-Extreme Learning Machine) prediction and early warning method that incorporates behavioral information. By uniformly quantifying behavioral risks and gas data, optimizing model parameters, and integrating control chart technology, this method constructs a coal mine safety situation awareness model. Experimental results demonstrate that this approach significantly reduces prediction errors in gas data (by 0.007), risk values (by 0.01), and safety situation values (by 0.03). This study innovatively considers behavioral risk factors, providing coal mine enterprises with efficient risk management methods and practical tools.

针对煤矿安全生产中定量风险数据与定性行为风险信息相结合的难题,本研究以瓦斯风险为例,提出了一种结合行为信息的 BN-ELM(贝叶斯网络-极端学习机)预测预警方法。该方法通过统一量化行为风险和瓦斯数据,优化模型参数,并结合控制图技术,构建了煤矿安全态势感知模型。实验结果表明,该方法显著降低了瓦斯数据预测误差(0.007)、风险值预测误差(0.01)和安全状况值预测误差(0.03)。该研究创新性地考虑了行为风险因素,为煤矿企业提供了高效的风险管理方法和实用工具。
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引用次数: 0
Decomposition of factors affecting copper consumption in major countries in light of green economy and its trend characteristics
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105313

Our study focused on analyzing copper resource consumption and its decoupling from economic development in the top 25 consuming countries, using LMDI and Tapio methods. Results revealed a shift among developed nations towards strong decoupling, whereas most developing countries exhibited weak decoupling. Income effects counteracted decoupling, while intensity effects played a significant role, particularly in driving strong decoupling in developed nations. These findings underscore the importance of sustainable national environmental policies, especially for developing countries, where attention to structural effects on economic development and green growth is crucial. Developed nations should prioritize monitoring intensity effects, supporting technological advancements, and improving resource efficiency. Developing countries should pay more attention to structural effects, formulate diversified development strategies, and give full play to the role of natural resource utilization in economic structural transformation.

我们的研究采用 LMDI 和 Tapio 方法,重点分析了铜资源消费量最高的 25 个国家的铜资源消费量及其与经济发展的脱钩情况。研究结果表明,发达国家向强脱附转变,而大多数发展中国家表现出弱脱附。收入效应抵消了脱钩效应,而强度效应则发挥了重要作用,尤其是在推动发达国家强脱钩方面。这些发现强调了可持续国家环境政策的重要性,特别是对发展中国家而言,关注对经济发展和绿色增长的结构性影响至关重要。发达国家应优先监测强度效应,支持技术进步,提高资源效率。发展中国家应更加重视结构效应,制定多元化发展战略,充分发挥自然资源利用在经济结构转型中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Blessings or curses? Exploring the impact of digital technology innovation on natural resource utilization efficiency in China
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105319

With the increasing resource and environmental constraints and pollution, China urgently needs to improve the condition of resource utilization. Digital technology innovation is a powerful tool for resource optimization. Therefore, this paper explores the impact of digital technology innovation on natural resource utilization efficiency (NRUE) in China from 2006 to 2019 with the system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM). Besides, we investigate the mechanism and heterogeneity. The main conclusions show that: (1) Digital technology innovation can significantly improve NRUE. Every 1% rise in digital technology innovation causes a 0.024% increase in NRUE; (2) digital technology innovation can indirectly improve NRUE by promoting industrial structure optimization, strengthening pollution control, and promoting green credit; and (3) heterogeneity exists in the digital technology innovation-NRUE nexus, and the effects are more obvious in digital product manufacturing and northern China. The findings enrich the existing literature and provide enlightenment for the use of digital technology to improve NRUE in China.

随着资源环境约束和污染的加剧,中国迫切需要改善资源利用条件。数字技术创新是资源优化利用的有力工具。因此,本文采用系统广义矩方法(SYS-GMM),探讨了 2006 年至 2019 年数字技术创新对中国自然资源利用效率(NRUE)的影响。此外,我们还对其机理和异质性进行了研究。主要结论如下(1) 数字技术创新能显著提高 NRUE。数字技术创新每提高 1%,NRUE 就会提高 0.024%;(2)数字技术创新可以通过促进产业结构优化、加强污染治理、推广绿色信贷等方式间接提高 NRUE;(3)数字技术创新与 NRUE 之间存在异质性,在数字产品制造业和中国北方地区的效果更为明显。研究结果丰富了现有文献,为中国利用数字技术提高国民经济效益提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Mining industry development, enforcement intensity of security policy and intra-city development disparity
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105307
<div><p>China, the world's largest developing country, is rich in mineral resources, albeit unevenly distributed geographically. Some cities with a surplus of mineral resources may form path dependence on these natural resource industries, leading to imbalanced urban development and widening development disparities within cities. However, in the event of safety incidents in the mining industry, local governments are compelled to regulate the excessive development of the mining sector and enhance the enforcement intensity of safety production policies. This study, based on the measurement of the Gini coefficient using nighttime light data for 281 prefecture-level cities in China, manually compiled the locations and death tolls of mining industry production safety incidents from 2001 to 2020, established an empirical analysis framework based on the instrumental variable two-stage least squares method. The research findings indicate: (1) Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's mining industry has experienced significant growth propelled by market-oriented reforms. However, it has also played a notable role in widening development disparities within cities. Robust results were obtained through instrumental variable estimation using the standard deviation of urban ground slope as a geographical indicator. (2) The occurrence of safety incidents in the mining industry will immediately escalate the enforcement intensity of regional safety policies, creating a significant inhibitory impact on alleviating the widening development disparities within cities caused by the expansion of the mining industry. In the case of larger safety incidents with a death toll of 3 or more, this impact will become even more pronounced. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the outlined mechanism is prominently present in the middle area, where the mining industry is relatively developed. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the occurrence of safety accidents and the escalation of safety policy implementation intensity in the economically developed eastern region and the western region with lower levels of infrastructure development. However, in cities with a higher proportion of the mining industry, the aforementioned relationships remain stable. (4) Once a mining accident involving fatalities occurs in a prefecture-level city, local governments generally strengthen the enforcement of safety policies, comprehensively eliminate hidden dangers in production safety. This shift leads to a reversal in the impact of the mining industry on the development disparity within the city, changing from an expansion to a reduction effect. Moreover, this reduction effect persists for five years. In the case of a serious safety production incident resulting in 10 or more deaths, the impact of increased implementation of safety policies also extends for a prolonged period of five years. This article makes a clear marginal contribution to enrich the study on the
中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,矿产资源丰富,但地理分布不均。一些矿产资源过剩的城市可能会形成对这些自然资源产业的路径依赖,导致城市发展不平衡,城市内部发展差距扩大。然而,一旦矿业发生安全事故,地方政府不得不调控矿业的过度发展,加大安全生产政策的执行力度。本研究在利用中国 281 个地级市夜间灯光数据测算基尼系数的基础上,手工整理了 2001 年至 2020 年矿业生产安全事故发生地点和死亡人数,建立了基于工具变量两阶段最小二乘法的实证分析框架。研究结果表明:(1)进入 21 世纪以来,中国矿业在市场化改革的推动下取得了长足发展。然而,它在扩大城市内部发展差距方面也发挥了显著作用。以城市地面坡度标准差作为地理指标,通过工具变量估计获得了稳健的结果。(2)矿业安全事故的发生会立即升级区域安全政策的执行力度,对缓解矿业扩张导致的城市内部发展差距扩大产生显著的抑制作用。如果发生死亡人数在 3 人以上的较大安全事故,这种影响将更加明显。(3)异质性分析表明,在矿业相对发达的中部地区,概括机制表现突出。相比之下,在经济发达的东部地区和基础设施发展水平较低的西部地区,安全事故的发生与安全政策执行力度的升级没有明显的相关性。但在矿业比重较高的城市,上述关系保持稳定。(4)地级市一旦发生矿山亡人事故,地方政府一般会加强安全政策的执行力度,全面消除安全生产隐患。这种转变导致矿业对城市内部发展差距的影响发生逆转,由扩大效应变为缩小效应。而且,这种缩小效应持续了五年。在发生造成 10 人以上死亡的严重安全生产事故的情况下,安全政策执行力度加大的影响也会延长 5 年。本文为丰富中国矿业安全政策效应研究做出了明显的边际贡献。
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引用次数: 0
A sustainable integration of mining activity in a tourist mountain territory: The case of Germanasca Valley
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105312

Every mining activity shows a footprint on the territory. The signs left by mining operations are physical, such as tunnels, extractive waste facilities, dressing plants, but also economic and social, due to job placement, income and knowledge connected to mining activity sensu lato. In the extraordinary context of the Germanasca Valley, mining has coexisted for hundreds of years with the mountain environment of the Alps and with the local population, and has become a fundamental part of local development, intimately connected with the territory and the local economic and social fabrics.

The progressive migration of mining crops at lower altitudes has left behind old mining structures that here, more than elsewhere, guaranteed new forms of industrial and geo-tourism. Similarly, the technological advance and the evolution of mining production, towards a higher quality product, with a consequent reduction in the quantities exploited, led over time to a progressive reduction in the number of employed miners. The resilience of the local population, however, balanced the contraction of work in the mine, transforming former miners in tourist guides and increasing the induced activities, passing from the previous “in house” model to an “outsourcing” model, characterized by external management of mine-related activities. The transformation of old mines into museums has certainly contributed to the development of the area, particularly considering a slow tourism that shows scarce attitude to a “fast and junk” tourism. The challenge is to understand if and how geotourism influence, in specific mining areas (such as Germanasca Valley), the attractiveness of a place.

每项采矿活动都会在当地留下足迹。采矿活动留下的痕迹既有物质方面的,如隧道、采掘废料设施、选矿厂,也有经济和社会方面的,如与采矿活动相关的就业、收入和知识。在格尔曼纳斯卡山谷的特殊环境中,采矿与阿尔卑斯山的山区环境和当地居民共存了数百年,并已成为当地发展的一个基本组成部分,与当地领土和当地的经济和社会结构密切相关。同样,随着技术的进步和矿业生产的发展,矿产品的质量不断提高,开采量随之减少,导致矿工人数逐渐减少。然而,当地居民的坚韧不拔精神平衡了矿山工作的缩减,使以前的矿工转变为导游,并增加了诱导性活动,从以前的 "内部 "模式转变为 "外包 "模式,其特点是与矿山有关的活动由外部管理。将老矿井改造成博物馆无疑促进了该地区的发展,特别是考虑到缓慢的旅游业对 "快速和垃圾 "旅游业的稀缺态度。我们面临的挑战是了解地质旅游是否以及如何影响特定矿区(如日耳曼纳斯卡山谷)的吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Energy structure and green productivity dynamics: Investigation from OECD Countries
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105309

Aiming to provide insights for nations improving their natural resources management and facilitate smooth energy transition, this study investigates green productivity across 38 OECD countries by employing by-production technology, directional distance functions, data envelopment analysis, and the Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen (LHM) productivity indicator. The analysis includes a comparative examination of the LHM productivity indicator and its components, along with an exploration of the relationship between LHM indicator and the structure of renewable energy consumption. The main discoveries can be succinctly summarized as follows: Firstly, the LHM productivity indicator highlights growth driven primarily by technical progress (TP), despite impediments posed by changes in technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC). Secondly, many countries have demonstrated successful attainment of positive green growth, with outstanding performances observed in Ireland and Latvia. Conversely, Turkey, Costa Rica, and Iceland exhibit relative shortcomings in terms of sustainability. Over time, there is a discernible widening gap in green productivity among countries, with improvements in TP being a major contributing factor to the growth of the LHM indicator in most nations. Thirdly, the study reveals that the consumption structure of renewable energy has a positive impact on the LHM indicator. Lastly, the transition towards sustainable energy yields a significant positive effect on smaller nations and those with lower per capita carbon dioxide emissions. This nuanced comprehension of the link between green productivity and the structures of renewable energy consumption provides valuable insights to the discourse on sustainable development and resource reallocation.

本研究采用分产技术、定向距离函数、数据包络分析和伦伯格-希克斯-莫尔斯坦(Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen,LHM)生产率指标,对 38 个经合组织国家的绿色生产率进行了调查,旨在为各国改善自然资源管理和促进能源平稳过渡提供启示。分析包括对 LHM 生产率指标及其组成部分的比较研究,以及 LHM 指标与可再生能源消费结构之间关系的探讨。主要发现可简要概括如下:首先,尽管技术效率变化(TEC)和规模效率变化(SEC)的变化造成了阻碍,但 LHM 生产率指标突出了主要由技术进步(TP)驱动的增长。其次,许多国家成功实现了绿色正增长,爱尔兰和拉脱维亚表现突出。相反,土耳其、哥斯达黎加和冰岛在可持续性方面则表现出相对不足。随着时间的推移,各国在绿色生产力方面的差距明显扩大,而贸易点的改善是大多数国家 LHM 指标增长的主要因素。第三,研究显示,可再生能源的消费结构对 LHM 指标有积极影响。最后,向可持续能源过渡对小国和人均二氧化碳排放量较低的国家产生了显著的积极影响。对绿色生产力与可再生能源消费结构之间联系的这种细致入微的理解,为可持续发展和资源重新分配的讨论提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Economic effects of shocks in the coal industry: An analysis based on DSGE model
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105315

This paper examines the impact of the coal sector on the economy from the perspective of industry shocks. Existing research primarily focuses on the relationship between coal consumption and the economy. An 8-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is constructed, based on China's input-output tables from 2005 to 2020, to depict the economic effects of coal sector shocks. The research findings are: (1) The DSGE model reveals a close connection between the coal industry and the macroeconomy. (2) The coal sector shocks have the largest impact on the electricity sector. (3) Coal sector shocks primarily affect the macroeconomy through non-energy manufacturing sectors. (4) As the economic development level increases, the influence of coal sector shocks on the macroeconomy gradually diminishes. The econometric analysis indicates that the role of coal is no longer significant in the high stage of economic development. The results of the panel quantile regression model also show the same result. Based on these conclusions, this paper suggests that as China gradually enters a new stage of development, it can gradually reduce coal consumption.

本文从行业冲击的角度研究煤炭行业对经济的影响。现有研究主要关注煤炭消费与经济之间的关系。本文基于中国 2005 至 2020 年的投入产出表,构建了一个 8 行业动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,以描述煤炭行业冲击对经济的影响。研究结果如下(1) DSGE 模型揭示了煤炭行业与宏观经济之间的密切联系。(2)煤炭行业的冲击对电力行业的影响最大。(3) 煤炭行业的冲击主要通过非能源制造业部门影响宏观经济。(4) 随着经济发展水平的提高,煤炭行业冲击对宏观经济的影响逐渐减弱。计量分析表明,在经济发展的高阶段,煤炭的作用不再显著。面板量化回归模型的结果也显示了同样的结果。基于这些结论,本文认为,随着中国逐步进入新的发展阶段,可以逐步减少煤炭消费。
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引用次数: 0
Green finance, fossil fuel efficiency, and sustainable development in OECD 经合组织的绿色金融、化石燃料效率和可持续发展
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105306

This study investigates the effects of eco-friendly finance and fossil fuel efficiency on sustainability in 15 OECD countries from 2005 to 2021. A 1% increase in the Fossil Fuels Efficiency Index improves sustainability by 0.32% in the short term and 0.45% in the long term. Similarly, a 1% rise in green finance enhances sustainability by 0.16% short-term and 0.40% long-term. Negative impacts on sustainability were found from the Energy Security Risk Index, Carbon Footprint, and Economic Growth, while higher Income Levels boost sustainability. Fossil fuel efficiency has a greater effect on sustainability than green finance, highlighting the need to prioritize fossil fuel efficiency. Recommendations include promoting renewable energy, digitizing green finance, customizing marketing strategies, importing energy efficiency technologies, and implementing efficient green tax rates.

本研究调查了 2005 年至 2021 年期间生态友好型金融和化石燃料效率对 15 个经合组织国家可持续发展的影响。化石燃料效率指数每提高 1%,可持续发展的短期改善率为 0.32%,长期改善率为 0.45%。同样,绿色金融每增加 1%,短期可持续发展性就会提高 0.16%,长期提高 0.40%。能源安全风险指数、碳足迹和经济增长对可持续发展产生了负面影响,而收入水平的提高则促进了可持续发展。化石燃料效率对可持续发展的影响大于绿色金融,这凸显了优先考虑化石燃料效率的必要性。建议包括推广可再生能源、实现绿色金融数字化、定制营销策略、进口能效技术以及实施高效的绿色税率。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing environmental sustainability through fintech, green finance natural resource, and economic growth in Asian economies - A Cup-FM and Cup-BC study 通过亚洲经济体的金融科技、绿色金融自然资源和经济增长平衡环境可持续性 - Cup-FM 和 Cup-BC 研究
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105294

Financial technology is now playing a significant part in supporting the advancement of the economy. Moreover, there exists an escalating awareness concerning the safeguarding of resources. The ongoing research illuminates the reliability of the resource curse assumption concerning selected Asian nations. Moreover, it analyses the consequences of two major economic indicators on COE, notably green finance and fintech. The analysis took place over a time frame of 20 years (2000–2020) to attain its goal. The analysis incorporates an extensive approach, Cup-FM and Cup-BC for the empirical perusal. The analysis outcomes illustrate the prevalence of the resource curse hypothesis in selected Asian nations. Fintech has been proven to be an essential tool for minimizing COE. Additionally, green finance acts as an essential tool for minimizing COE. In addition to this, GDP has proven to be a pertinent driver of COE. The analysis provides a variety of particular strategies intended for strengthening the circumstances of observed nations. It is essential to concentrate on the ecologically sound utilization of natural resources at present. Additionally, financial technologies must receive more of the spotlight in the general policymaking field. It is mandatory now for developing nations, to invest in green finances to boost ecological quality.

目前,金融技术在支持经济发展方面发挥着重要作用。此外,人们对资源保护的认识也在不断提高。正在进行的研究揭示了有关选定亚洲国家的资源诅咒假设的可靠性。此外,研究还分析了两个主要经济指标对 COE 的影响,特别是绿色金融和金融科技。为实现其目标,分析时间跨度为 20 年(2000-2020 年)。分析采用了一种广泛的方法--Cup-FM 和 Cup-BC,以进行实证分析。分析结果表明,资源诅咒假说在选定的亚洲国家普遍存在。事实证明,金融科技是最大限度降低 COE 的重要工具。此外,绿色金融也是最大限度降低 COE 的重要工具。除此之外,GDP 也被证明是 COE 的相关驱动因素。分析提供了各种旨在改善被观察国家环境的特殊战略。目前,必须专注于自然资源的生态合理利用。此外,在总体决策领域,金融技术必须受到更多关注。现在,发展中国家必须投资绿色金融,以提高生态质量。
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引用次数: 0
Digitalization of the economy and sustainability of metallic mineral production 经济数字化与金属矿物生产的可持续性
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105305

Due to the adverse impacts of climate change on the environment and biodiversity, sustainability has become a critical issue. This paper investigates the impact of digitalization on the sustainability of metallic mineral production, particularly CO2 emissions, within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Using data from 1998 to 2020 and the cross-sectional FMOLS technique, the study finds that a 1% increase in ICT investment reduces CO2 emissions by 0.32%, and a 1% rise in Internet access decreases emissions by 0.28%. However, electrification increases emissions due to higher energy demand and fossil fuel reliance. Economic growth and metallic resource trade volume also elevate emissions. Policy recommendations include smart urban development, sustainable rural electrification, fostering internet access, and implementing green logistics in metallic production trade to enhance sustainability in RCEP countries.

由于气候变化对环境和生物多样性的不利影响,可持续性已成为一个关键问题。本文研究了区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)中数字化对金属矿产生产可持续性的影响,特别是二氧化碳排放。利用 1998 年至 2020 年的数据和横截面 FMOLS 技术,研究发现信息和通信技术投资每增加 1%,二氧化碳排放量就会减少 0.32%,互联网接入每增加 1%,排放量就会减少 0.28%。然而,由于能源需求增加和对化石燃料的依赖,电气化增加了排放量。经济增长和金属资源贸易量也会增加排放量。政策建议包括智能城市发展、可持续农村电气化、促进互联网接入以及在金属生产贸易中实施绿色物流,以提高 RCEP 国家的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
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