Resources Policy最新文献

Limits to base metals recycling: A meta-analysis of the literature from 2013 to 2023 贱金属回收的限制：2013 - 2023年文献荟萃分析

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105850

François Guy, Florian Fizaine

Recycling is the most frequent lever cited in public and scientific debate to help reach a circular economy. However, end-of-life recycling rate (EOL-RR) of metals seems to be stagnating for decades. In order to understand why, this article takes a look at the literature on limits to base metals recycling, through bibliometric and textual analysis. The goal is two-fold: identifying limits affecting base metals recycling and understanding how the literature about it is structured. We include publications having limits to base metal recycling on end-of-life wastes written in the text, between 2013 and 2023. Our sample comprised of 372 publications, both from scientific and gray literature, illustrate a growing interest in this topic over the years, mostly carried by peer-reviewed articles and reports from various institutions.

The results indicate that most limits to recycling are technical or economical by nature, and affect mostly either the recovery step or the overall process at once. The literature itself is focused on OECD countries and overlooks recycling chains in developing countries. Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, we observe an underlying structure around specific topics, with a focus on batteries, steel recycling and electronic wastes as three notably distinct clusters. Our findings can help policymakers define public policies in order to increase recycling at a global level while reducing side-effects between metals recycling chains, and scholars to close the identified research gaps.

在公共和科学辩论中，回收利用是帮助实现循环经济的最常用手段。然而，金属的报废回收率（EOL-RR）似乎已经停滞了几十年。为了理解其中的原因，本文通过文献计量学和文本分析，研究了有关贱金属回收限制的文献。目标有两个：确定影响贱金属回收的限制，并了解有关它的文献是如何结构的。我们包括了在2013年至2023年期间对报废废物回收贱金属进行限制的出版物。我们的样本包括372份出版物，既有科学文献，也有灰色文献，这些都表明，多年来，人们对这一主题的兴趣日益浓厚，其中大部分是同行评议的文章和来自不同机构的报告。结果表明，大多数回收限制都是技术性的或经济性的，并且主要影响回收步骤或整个过程。文献本身侧重于经合组织国家，而忽视了发展中国家的回收链。使用潜在狄利克雷分配，我们观察到围绕特定主题的潜在结构，重点关注电池，钢铁回收和电子废物作为三个明显不同的集群。我们的研究结果可以帮助决策者制定公共政策，以便在全球范围内增加回收，同时减少金属回收链之间的副作用，并帮助学者缩小已确定的研究差距。

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引用次数: 0

Timber-Support Risk Mitigation Framework (TRF) in underground mining: A mechanistic, cost-benefit and risk assessment approach for artisanal and small-scale mining of critical minerals 地下采矿中的木材-支撑风险缓解框架：关键矿物手工和小规模采矿的机械、成本效益和风险评估方法

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105853

Carol Mgiba, Oladoyin Kolawole

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) plays a critical role in supplying critical minerals essential for clean energy, yet underground rock collapse remains a major safety and sustainability challenge. This study proposes the Timber-Support Risk Mitigation Framework (TRF), a cost–benefit and risk assessment approach integrating rock mechanistic principles and eco-friendly materials to enhance excavation stability under resource constraints in ASM. Using compression tests and probabilistic analysis, eight timber-based support configurations were evaluated for rock strength improvement, probability of failure (P_failure), and installation costs. Additionally, the standard deviation (SD) and variance (

σ^{2}

) were incorporated to quantify the uncertainty of rock strength improvement and utilized to calculate the probability of failure. Results show that a staggered support pattern (SSP) with small-sized soft timber delivers the highest rock mass stability, improving rock strength (UCS) by +82 % and reducing P_failure to 0.2, at the lowest cost range of $100–$150 per 1.2 m advance. Conversely, large-sized soft timber in SSP yields minimal strength enhancement (+34 %) and incurs the highest costs ($700–$750) with the highest P_failure of 0.7. Uncertainty analysis also highlights the importance of consistent UCS performance by prioritizing ground support systems for reliable tunnel stability predictions. Practical implementation pathways were also provided, which include local cooperative-led training, micro-grants, standardized permits and timber specifications, and policy integration to institutionalize ground-control practices in ASM. The proposed innovative rock mechanics-based cost-benefit framework, TRF, offers a simple, low-cost decision-making tool for ASM operators, enabling safer, more sustainable extraction of critical minerals.

手工和小规模采矿（ASM）在提供清洁能源所需的关键矿物方面发挥着关键作用，但地下岩石坍塌仍然是一个主要的安全和可持续性挑战。本研究提出了木材-支护风险缓解框架（TRF），这是一种综合岩石力学原理和生态材料的成本效益和风险评估方法，以提高资源约束下ASM的开挖稳定性。通过压缩试验和概率分析，评估了8种基于木材的支撑结构对岩石强度的改善、破坏概率（Pfailure）和安装成本的影响。采用标准差（SD）和方差（σ2）来量化岩石强度提高的不确定性，并计算破坏概率。结果表明，采用小尺寸软木材的交错支护模式（SSP）可提供最高的岩体稳定性，将岩石强度（UCS）提高82%，将Pfailure降至0.2，每推进1.2 m的最低成本为100 - 150美元。相反，SSP中大尺寸软材的强度增强最小（+ 34%），Pfailure最高为0.7，成本最高（700 - 750美元）。不确定性分析还强调了通过优先考虑地面支持系统来进行可靠的隧道稳定性预测的一致性UCS性能的重要性。还提供了实际的实施途径，其中包括当地合作社主导的培训、小额赠款、标准化许可证和木材规格，以及将ASM的地面控制实践制度化的政策整合。提出的基于岩石力学的创新成本效益框架TRF，为ASM运营商提供了一个简单、低成本的决策工具，实现了更安全、更可持续的关键矿物开采。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping the difficulties in implementing resource efficiency measures of European Companies 绘制欧洲公司在执行资源效率措施方面的困难

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105858

Sofia Gomes , João M. Lopes , Elisabete Nogueira

Resource efficiency is a key pillar of the European Union's strategy to address climate change, the energy transition, and sustainable economic growth. This study examines how firm-specific characteristics influence the difficulties EU companies face in implementing resource efficiency strategies. Using multilevel latent class analysis, the study identified four firm-level clusters, ranging from minimal to severe implementation barriers, and five country-level classes reflecting varying degrees of national-level challenges. Findings show that smaller and older firms with lower turnover and limited investment tend to face moderate to severe difficulties, highlighting the critical importance of financial capacity and organizational agility. At the country level, pronounced geographic variation emerges: firms in Northern and Central Europe generally face fewer obstacles, whereas those in Southern and Eastern Europe encounter greater challenges. The results emphasize the need for differentiated policy and managerial interventions, including targeted financial support, capacity-building programs, and cross-regional knowledge exchange, to promote strategic resource allocation and broader adoption of sustainable practices. Overall, the study advances theoretical understanding by linking firm heterogeneity with multilevel contextual factors and provides actionable insights for enhancing resource efficiency across the EU.

资源效率是欧盟应对气候变化、能源转型和可持续经济增长战略的关键支柱。本研究探讨了企业特征如何影响欧盟公司在实施资源效率战略时所面临的困难。利用多层次潜在类别分析，该研究确定了四个公司层面的集群，从最小到严重的实施障碍，以及五个国家层面的类别，反映了不同程度的国家层面的挑战。研究结果表明，较小和较老的公司，低流动率和有限的投资往往面临中度到严重的困难，突出了财务能力和组织敏捷性的关键重要性。在国家一级，出现了明显的地理差异：北欧和中欧的公司通常面临较少的障碍，而南欧和东欧的公司则面临更大的挑战。研究结果强调需要采取差别化的政策和管理干预措施，包括有针对性的资金支持、能力建设项目和跨区域知识交流，以促进战略性资源配置和更广泛地采用可持续实践。总体而言，该研究通过将企业异质性与多层次背景因素联系起来，推进了理论理解，并为提高整个欧盟的资源效率提供了可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of digital transformation on corporate carbon information disclosure: evidence from China's resource-based listed companies 数字化转型对企业碳信息披露的影响：来自中国资源型上市公司的证据

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105860

Xiao Tan , Nanxin Li , Xiaoxuan Wu , Antong Li , Daxing Xu , Zhongkui Han

As major energy consumers and carbon emitters, resource-based enterprises play a critical role in supporting low-carbon social development. The rapid advancement of digital transformation has created new opportunities for enhancing carbon information disclosure within this sector. Drawing on empirical data from 2010 to 2023 for listed resource-based firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in China, this study employs a combination of an OLS model and a causal forest model to systematically examine the impact of digital transformation on carbon information disclosure. The findings suggest that digital transformation has a significant impact on enhancing the quality of carbon information disclosure among resource-based enterprises. A multidimensional examination of digital transformation effects indicates that artificial intelligence and big data technologies serve as key drivers for advancing carbon information disclosure in resource-based enterprises, whereas blockchain currently lacks evidence demonstrating such effective functionality. Mechanism testing reveals that this effect operates primarily through three pathways: improving information transparency, alleviating financing constraint, and upgrading the talent structure. We estimated the conditional average treatment effect for each observation using the causal forest model and conducted a heterogeneity analysis based on this estimate. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the treatment effects of firm asset size and R&D intensity on digital transformation exhibit a roughly nonlinear U-shaped relationship, while firm age shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with treatment effects. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to promote digital transformation and enhance the carbon disclosure practices of resource-based enterprises.

资源型企业作为能源消耗大户和碳排放大户，在支持低碳社会发展中发挥着重要作用。数字化转型的快速发展为加强该行业的碳信息披露创造了新的机遇。本文利用2010 - 2023年沪深两市资源型上市公司的实证数据，采用OLS模型和因果森林模型相结合的方法，系统考察了数字化转型对碳信息披露的影响。研究结果表明，数字化转型对资源型企业碳信息披露质量的提升有显著影响。对数字化转型效应的多维考察表明，人工智能和大数据技术是推动资源型企业碳信息披露的关键驱动因素，而区块链目前缺乏证明其有效功能的证据。机制检验表明，这种效应主要通过提高信息透明度、缓解融资约束和优化人才结构三个途径发挥作用。我们使用因果森林模型估计了每次观测的条件平均处理效果，并在此基础上进行了异质性分析。异质性分析表明，企业资产规模和研发强度对数字化转型的处理效果大致呈非线性u型关系，而企业年龄与处理效果呈倒u型关系。本研究为寻求促进资源型企业数字化转型和加强碳信息披露实践的政策制定者和实践者提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Economic sustainability in the critical materials-supply chains-renewable energy nexus for a low carbon future 低碳未来的关键材料-供应链-可再生能源关系的经济可持续性

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105862

Homayoun Fathollahzadeh , Gavin M. Mudd , Simon M. Jowitt

The global transition toward renewable energy has triggered an unprecedented demand for critical minerals, yet conventional mining models often struggle to balance long-term profitability with environmental and social safeguards. This paper provides a unique conceptual integration by embedding risk-management hierarchies directly into financial cost frameworks, thereby bridging the gap between firm-level operational viability and system-level supply chain resilience. By synthesizing the All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) metric with a structured Hierarchy of Control (HOC), we propose an integrated framework for economic sustainability. We apply this framework to the 'by-product paradox’ using tellurium in solar PV as a case study, to facilitate actionable strategies such as biomining and renewable energy integration. Ultimately, this framework provides a pathway for developing the agile and sustainable supply chains necessary to meet global decarbonization targets. Failure to address these challenges could disconnect mining from climate goals, hindering the clean energy transition.

全球向可再生能源的转型引发了对关键矿产前所未有的需求，但传统的采矿模式往往难以平衡长期盈利与环境和社会保障。本文提供了一个独特的概念整合，将风险管理层次直接嵌入到财务成本框架中，从而弥合了公司层面的运营可行性和系统层面的供应链弹性之间的差距。通过综合全投入持续成本（AISC）指标和一个结构化的控制层次（HOC），我们提出了一个经济可持续性的综合框架。我们将这一框架应用于“副产品悖论”，以太阳能光伏中的碲作为案例研究，以促进可操作的策略，如生物采矿和可再生能源整合。最终，该框架为开发实现全球脱碳目标所必需的敏捷和可持续供应链提供了一条途径。如果不能解决这些挑战，采矿业可能会与气候目标脱节，阻碍清洁能源转型。

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引用次数: 0

The ‘past’ in the present (and futures) of a colliery basti: Case study of a resettled coal community in Eastern India 煤矿基地的现在（和未来）的“过去”：印度东部一个重新安置的煤炭社区的案例研究

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105856

Pooja Narnoli, Deepak K. Mishra

A resettled colony is visualised as a living space which provides agency to individuals, groups, and institutions to reconstruct the lives and livelihoods of the displaced. Through individual and collective memories of the resettled, meanings are infused into the lived space by real and symbolic acts of reconnecting. The collective and individual memories of the pasts are critical to the daily reproduction of livelihoods, meaning and identities of the resettled. Hence, resource communities that move away from coal spaces navigate their livelihoods through space and time, wherein multiple linkages to their overlapping social identities of indigeneity, class, caste and gender, mining identity and the resettled identity are reinstated, rediscovered and/or reimagined in the process of remembering or forgetting the past relative to the present while seeking for alternative livelihood futures. Through an ethnographic study of the displaced colliery bastis in the Jharia coalfields of Jharkhand who are resettled away from coal, we discuss the role of memories in multiple interrelated spheres: the relational living space that intersects with the neighbourhoods, the public spaces and ‘social’ infrastructure, the livelihoods space, and the institutionalised spaces of governance, and thereafter, relate these experiences to the future pathways for the resource community. The authors find that resettled livelihoods, in the multiplicity of identities, are intertwined with immediate and distant memories, hence migration or local history provides alternative pathways to the young and the older generations, respectively while many of them remain entangled in the circuits of mining capital by moving back to coal.

重新安置的殖民地被视为一个生活空间，为个人、团体和机构提供代理，以重建流离失所者的生活和生计。通过重新安置的个人和集体记忆，通过重新连接的真实和象征性行为将意义注入生活空间。过去的集体和个人记忆对于重新安置的生计、意义和身份的日常再现至关重要。因此，远离煤炭空间的资源社区通过空间和时间来导航他们的生计，其中与其重叠的社会身份，土著，阶级，种姓和性别，采矿身份和重新安置身份的多重联系在记忆或忘记过去相对于现在的过程中被恢复，重新发现和/或重新想象，同时寻求替代生计的未来。通过对贾坎德邦贾哈里亚煤田煤矿工人的民族志研究，我们讨论了记忆在多个相互关联的领域中的作用：与社区相交的关系生活空间、公共空间和“社会”基础设施、生计空间和治理的制度化空间，然后将这些经验与资源社区的未来道路联系起来。作者发现，在身份的多样性中，重新安置的生计与眼前和遥远的记忆交织在一起，因此移民或当地历史分别为年轻人和老年人提供了另一种途径，而他们中的许多人仍然通过回到煤炭行业而纠缠在矿业资本的循环中。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic and causal effects of oil price uncertainty on U.S. energy production: A Fourier and wavelet-based analysis 石油价格不确定性对美国能源生产的动态和因果影响：基于傅里叶和小波的分析

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105851

Ahmet Tayfur Akcan , Hasan Kazak , Semanur Soyyigit , Cuneyt Kilic

This study examines the dynamic and causal effects of oil price uncertainty (OPU) on different energy production indicators in the United States. FFF-ADF unit root tests, the FTY causality test, and wavelet coherence analysis are employed on monthly data for the period 1990–2024. The findings show that OPU has a unidirectional, significant causal effect on coal production, total fossil fuel production, and total primary energy production. For renewable energy, both positive and negative time-dependent relationships are identified. Wavelet analysis reveals that the link between OPU and energy production varies periodically: price uncertainty encouraging renewable energy investment in some periods but creating volatility in conventional energy output in other periods. These results confirm the role of price uncertainty as a key determinant of energy market dynamics, consistent with the international literature. The study highlights that increasing the diversity of the energy portfolio, supporting investment in renewables, and developing flexible policy instruments are critical to the security and sustainability of the energy supply. Overall, the findings provide an updated and policy-relevant perspective that contributes to ongoing debates in energy economics and resource policy.

本研究探讨石油价格不确定性（OPU）对美国不同能源生产指标的动态和因果效应。采用FFF-ADF单位根检验、FTY因果检验和小波相干性分析对1990-2024年的月度数据进行了分析。结果表明，OPU对煤炭产量、化石燃料总产量和一次能源总产量具有单向、显著的因果关系。对于可再生能源，确定了正负时间依赖关系。小波分析表明，OPU与能源生产之间的联系是周期性变化的：价格的不确定性在某些时期鼓励可再生能源投资，但在其他时期造成常规能源产出的波动。这些结果证实了价格不确定性作为能源市场动态的关键决定因素的作用，与国际文献一致。该研究强调，增加能源组合的多样性、支持可再生能源投资以及制定灵活的政策工具对能源供应的安全和可持续性至关重要。总的来说，研究结果提供了一个与政策相关的最新视角，有助于能源经济学和资源政策的持续辩论。

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引用次数: 0

Uncovering the whys behind the prevalence of galamsey despite regulatory efforts; A principal-agent model analysis 尽管监管努力，但揭示galamsey流行背后的原因；委托代理模型分析

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105854

Mercedes Asamani

Illegal mineral resource mining remains a troubling issue in the Global South. In Ghana, illegal small-scale gold mining commonly known as “galamsey”- a term coined from “gather and sell” has become a major environmental, health, and economic challenge in Ghana. While the current literature is useful in establishing motivating factors for illegal small-scale mining activities, they fail to account for the relationship dynamics between principals and agents, rational choices or incentives, and the misalignment of interests that could be accounting for the proliferation of ‘galamsey’ activities in Ghana. Using the Principal-Agent theory as an analytical framework for the prevalence of galamsey in Ghana, the paper uncovers and provides deeper insights into the prevalence of illegal small-scale mining in Ghana despite regulatory efforts and policy interventions. The paper argues that galamsey persists not because of the absence of policy interventions or regulatory efforts but as a result of misaligned interests and incentives structures, and weak accountability in delegated governance relationships. The paper offers key policy takeaways in realigning incentives to curb illegal mining activities through multilateralization, investment in monitoring and technologies, licensing reforms, refocusing livelihood policies, environmental education campaigns, and stiffer sanctions.

非法开采矿产资源仍然是全球南方一个令人不安的问题。在加纳，非法的小规模金矿开采通常被称为“galamsey”——一个由“收集和销售”创造的术语，已经成为加纳环境、健康和经济方面的主要挑战。虽然目前的文献在建立非法小规模采矿活动的激励因素方面很有用，但它们未能解释委托人和代理人之间的关系动态，理性选择或激励，以及可能导致加纳“galamsey”活动扩散的利益错位。使用委托代理理论作为加纳galamsey流行的分析框架，本文揭示了尽管有监管努力和政策干预，但加纳非法小规模采矿的流行情况，并提供了更深入的见解。这篇论文认为，galamsey之所以持续存在，不是因为缺乏政策干预或监管努力，而是因为利益和激励结构不一致，以及委托治理关系中的问责不力。本文提出了通过多边化、监测和技术投资、许可改革、重新调整生计政策重点、环境教育运动和更严厉的制裁措施来重新调整遏制非法采矿活动的激励措施的关键政策要点。

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引用次数: 0

Nature-positive rare earth governance: Japan's strategy in a China-dominated system 自然积极的稀土治理：中国主导体系下的日本战略

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2026.105852

Qinxue Wang

Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical to decarbonization and digital infrastructure, yet their supply chains exhibit pronounced structural asymmetry and highly uneven environmental footprints, with China controlling roughly 69 % of global mine output and around 85–90 % of refining capacity. This article reviews Japan's rare earth security strategy as a resource-poor but technology-intensive economy along three axes: (1) the geological potential, environmental trade-offs, and realistic development role of deep-sea REY-rich mud within Japan's exclusive economic zone, especially deposits around Minamitorishima Island; (2) the structural divergence between China's integrated, volume-oriented “mine-to-magnet” system and Japan's specialization in high-purity, high-value segments; and (3) portfolio diversification through Australian and Southeast Asian partnerships, domestic recycling, and governance tools oriented toward ESG and nature-positive outcomes. Methodologically, the paper employs an exploratory three-scenario framework for 2030–2035 (conservative, central, ambitious). Rather than a formal quantitative model, these scenarios serve as heuristic tools, informed by recent USGS and IEA projections, to examine how non-Chinese capacity expansion and policy interventions could reshape Japan's supply security. The analysis shows that, although Minamitorishima Island's deep-sea deposits hold significant resource potential regarding heavy REEs such as Dy and Tb, substantial techno-economic hurdles (costs >50 USD/kg) mean they function primarily as a high-cost strategic reserve for extreme contingencies rather than a commercially competitive substitute. Japan's comparative advantage instead lies in high-purity separation, heavy-rare-earth-lean magnet design, and advanced circularity. In the central scenario, China's share of global mining moderates to around 50–55 % by 2035, allowing Japan to move towards a diversified supply matrix. The findings suggest that resilience for resource-poor economies is achieved not by replicating China's scale, but by combining diversification with reduced environmental intensity, and by embedding nature-positive principles—contingent upon aggressive policy support for circularity and traceability—into supply-chain governance.

稀土元素（ree）对脱碳和数字基础设施至关重要，但其供应链表现出明显的结构不对称和高度不均匀的环境足迹，中国控制着全球约69%的矿山产量和约85 - 90%的炼油能力。本文从三个方面综述了资源贫乏但技术密集型的日本稀土安全战略：(1)日本专属经济区内，特别是南岛附近的深海富稀土泥的地质潜力、环境权衡和现实开发作用；(2)中国以体量为导向的一体化“矿转磁”体系与日本在高纯度、高价值细分领域的专业化体系存在结构性差异；(3)通过澳大利亚和东南亚伙伴关系、国内回收以及面向ESG和自然积极成果的治理工具实现投资组合多元化。在方法上，本文采用了一个探索性的2030-2035年三情景框架（保守、中心、雄心）。这些情景不是一个正式的定量模型，而是作为启发式工具，根据美国地质勘探局和国际能源署最近的预测，来研究非中国的产能扩张和政策干预如何重塑日本的供应安全。分析表明，尽管南岛的深海矿床在镝和铽等重稀土元素方面具有巨大的资源潜力，但巨大的技术经济障碍（成本50美元/公斤）意味着它们主要是作为极端突发事件的高成本战略储备，而不是具有商业竞争力的替代品。相反，日本的比较优势在于高纯度分离、重稀土贫磁铁设计和先进的循环。在中心情景中，到2035年，中国在全球矿业中的份额将放缓至50 - 55%左右，使日本能够走向多元化的供应矩阵。研究结果表明，资源匮乏经济体的弹性不是通过复制中国的规模来实现的，而是通过将多样化与降低环境强度相结合，并将自然积极原则（取决于对循环和可追溯性的积极政策支持）纳入供应链治理。

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引用次数: 0

Strategic competition in lithium mining and refining: A multi-stage game theoretic model 锂矿开采与精炼的战略竞争：一个多阶段博弈论模型

IF 10.2 2区经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Resources Policy

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105823

Maxwell Brown, Mirali Seyedrezaei

In this work, we develop and apply a model of global lithium production that captures strategic behavior across mining and refining stages. We integrate multiple types of game formulations into a bi-level framework and calibrate the resulting system using a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC); in doing so, the model aligns closely with observed data despite sparse information, while enforcing game-theoretic equilibrium conditions. First, we show that the strategic game setup (e.g., Cournot vs. Stackelberg) can impact the ability of the MPEC to match observed data, particularly for fringe and follower actors. Next, we estimate the deadweight loss from market power across upstream and downstream stages. Results show that market structure significantly influences production levels, pricing, and the allocation of surplus, with the most pronounced effects observed in the relatively more concentrated downstream refining markets. Finally, we simulate the effects of exogenous entry to highlight how new supply at mining and refining stages could affect incumbent producers’ profits and demonstrate differences in each actor’s market exposure.

在这项工作中，我们开发并应用了一个全球锂生产模型，该模型捕捉了采矿和精炼阶段的战略行为。我们将多种类型的游戏公式整合到一个双层框架中，并使用带有平衡约束（MPEC）的数学程序校准结果系统；在这样做的过程中，尽管信息稀疏，但该模型与观测数据密切一致，同时强制执行博弈论的平衡条件。首先，我们展示了战略博弈设置（例如，Cournot vs. Stackelberg）可以影响MPEC匹配观察数据的能力，特别是对于边缘和追随者参与者。接下来，我们估计了市场力量在上游和下游阶段的载重损失。结果表明，市场结构显著影响生产水平、定价和剩余配置，在相对集中度较高的下游炼油市场影响最为显著。最后，我们模拟了外生进入的影响，以突出采矿和炼油阶段的新供应如何影响现有生产商的利润，并展示了每个参与者的市场敞口的差异。

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引用次数: 0