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On the dynamic interdependence between risk factors and clean energy stock prices 风险因素与清洁能源股票价格的动态相互依存关系研究
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105595
Walid M.A. Ahmed , Mohamed A.E. Sleem
The growing challenges posed by climate change have made the shift to clean energy an urgent necessity for sustainable development. However, the clean energy sector is deeply intertwined with broader risk factors that can significantly impact its growth and stability. In this study, we investigate the complex dynamics between clean energy stock markets and five key US risk factors: climate policy uncertainty, economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, geopolitical risk, and oil price volatility. Our analysis uses the novel quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach, which enables a deeper exploration of the interdependencies between variables not only within the same quantiles but also across various quantiles of their respective distributions. We find substantial inverse connectedness, particularly under extreme market circumstances, underscoring the vulnerability of clean energy stocks to changes in policy uncertainty, financial stress, and oil prices. Geopolitical risk, meanwhile, exhibits a strong direct relationship with clean energy markets, especially in times of heightened geopolitical tension. Additionally, the pairwise connectedness structure tends to intensify throughout paramount political, economic, and climate events or crises. Our findings have practical implications for both investors and policymakers.
气候变化带来的日益严峻的挑战使得向清洁能源的转变成为可持续发展的迫切需要。然而,清洁能源行业与更广泛的风险因素密切相关,这些风险因素可能对其增长和稳定产生重大影响。在本研究中,我们研究了清洁能源股票市场与美国五个关键风险因素之间的复杂动态关系:气候政策不确定性、经济政策不确定性、金融压力、地缘政治风险和油价波动。我们的分析使用了新颖的分位数上分位数连通性方法,该方法不仅可以在相同的分位数内,而且可以在各自分布的各个分位数之间更深入地探索变量之间的相互依赖性。我们发现,特别是在极端的市场环境下,清洁能源股存在大量的反向关联,这凸显了清洁能源股对政策不确定性、金融压力和油价变化的脆弱性。与此同时,地缘政治风险与清洁能源市场有着密切的直接关系,尤其是在地缘政治紧张加剧的时期。此外,在重要的政治、经济和气候事件或危机中,两两连通性结构往往会加强。我们的研究结果对投资者和政策制定者都有实际意义。
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引用次数: 0
Evolutionary dynamics in common oil resource management for enhancing long-term strategic interactions 促进长期战略互动的共同石油资源管理的进化动力学
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105597
Seyed Pendar Toufighi , Iman Ghasemian Sahebi , Zahra Soltani
This study explores the application of evolutionary game theory to optimize long-term extraction strategies for common oil fields, focusing on the North Pars field shared by Iran and Qatar. The research aims to identify optimal management policies for shared resources by modeling the strategic interactions between these countries. The analysis incorporates key factors such as recovery rates, and information asymmetry, providing a realistic framework for decision-making. The study reveals that full cooperation between Iran and Qatar yields the highest long-term payoffs, emphasizing the benefits of strategic alignment. However, the game-theoretic model also indicates an equilibrium where Iran cooperates, and Qatar does not, resulting in higher payoffs for Qatar. This highlights the challenges in achieving mutual cooperation and underscores the need for robust legal frameworks and negotiation strategies. Using real data from the North Pars field, the mathematical model optimizes extraction values and payoffs, demonstrating the potential of technological advancements and strategic planning. The optimized extraction rates are 147,865 barrels per day for Iran and 265,748 barrels per day for Qatar. The study shows that increasing a country's potential payoff accelerates the convergence towards a stable, cooperative strategy. The findings suggest that evolutionary strategies, informed by dynamic geopolitical and economic conditions, enhance the management of shared oil resources.
本研究以伊朗和卡塔尔共有的北帕尔斯油田为研究对象,探讨了进化博弈论在共同油田长期开采策略优化中的应用。本研究旨在通过模拟这些国家之间的战略互动,确定共享资源的最佳管理政策。该分析结合了采收率和信息不对称等关键因素,为决策提供了一个现实的框架。该研究表明,伊朗和卡塔尔之间的全面合作产生了最高的长期回报,强调了战略结盟的好处。然而,博弈论模型也指出了一种平衡,即伊朗合作而卡塔尔不合作,从而导致卡塔尔获得更高的回报。这突出了实现相互合作方面的挑战,并强调需要强有力的法律框架和谈判战略。利用来自North Pars油田的真实数据,该数学模型优化了开采价值和收益,展示了技术进步和战略规划的潜力。优化萃取率147865桶为伊朗和卡塔尔的265748桶。研究表明,增加一个国家的潜在收益加速了向稳定合作战略的趋同。研究结果表明,受动态地缘政治和经济条件影响的进化策略可以增强对共享石油资源的管理。
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引用次数: 0
Garimpo and public policies in Brazil: Proposal for a responsible activity 巴西的Garimpo和公共政策:负责任活动的建议
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105591
Alex dos Santos Macedo , Dione Macedo , Hassan Sohn , Luís Mauro Gomes Ferreira
Garimpo, or artisanal and small-scale mineral extraction, is a centuries-old activity in Brazil that has been largely neglected by the government, society, academia, and other stakeholders since the seventeenth century. This article proposes a public policy framework aimed at revitalizing and regulating this overlooked sector by promoting new mining standards with a focus on sustainability. The research utilized documentary and bibliographic methods to develop the proposed policy. A problem tree was created to identify the central issues, their causes, and their consequences, and a logical model was developed based on established public policy modeling references. The findings emphasize the need for the policy to address several critical components: mineral mapping and regularization, inspection and monitoring, training and education, appropriate technology, environmental management, responsible trade and supply chains, economic incentives, and community participation. The study also highlights key challenges for the policy's success, including the lack of political will, limited state capacity of mining agencies, discontinuity of interventions, and the lack of government presence in mining territories. Recommendations are provided to outline a preliminary model for intervention.
Garimpo,即手工和小规模的矿物开采,是巴西一项有着数百年历史的活动,自17世纪以来,它在很大程度上被政府、社会、学术界和其他利益相关者所忽视。本文提出了一个公共政策框架,旨在通过促进以可持续性为重点的新采矿标准来振兴和管理这个被忽视的部门。本研究采用文献和书目方法来制定建议的政策。创建了一个问题树来识别中心问题、它们的原因和结果,并基于已建立的公共政策建模参考开发了一个逻辑模型。调查结果强调,该政策需要处理几个关键组成部分:矿产测绘和规范化、检查和监测、培训和教育、适当技术、环境管理、负责任的贸易和供应链、经济奖励和社区参与。该研究还强调了该政策成功面临的主要挑战,包括缺乏政治意愿、采矿机构的国家能力有限、干预措施的不连续性以及采矿地区缺乏政府存在。提出了一些建议,概述了初步的干预模式。
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引用次数: 0
ESG mapping of the Australian mining sector – The state of play on mobilising spatial datasets for decision making 澳大利亚采矿业的ESG制图——为决策调动空间数据集的现状
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105592
Eléonore Lèbre , Karol Czarnota , Stuart D.C. Walsh , Marcus Haynes , Natasha Ufer , Laura J. Sonter , Rachakonda Sreekar , Pascal Bolz , Nevenka Bulovic , Claire Côte , Nadja C. Kunz , Steven Micklethwaite , Stephen A. Northey , Louisa M. Rochford , Richard Schodde , Benjamin Seligmann , Kathryn Sturman
The global energy transition will drive increased demand for a broad range of mined minerals. Australia is well positioned to support the global energy transition, given its mature mining sector and rich and diverse mineral resources. The potential growth in the mining sector represents an economic opportunity, however, navigating the associated environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks remains a challenge. A step towards improved ESG credentials across the Australian mining sector is for mine developers, regulators, communities, investors and other industry stakeholders to be capable of integrating diverse types of ESG data into decision-making processes. This paper establishes the foundations for applying ESG mapping, a research technique that mobilises spatial data to analyse and compare extractive locations in terms of factors relevant to mining and exploration, at the scale of Australia. To do so, the paper first critically reviews 33 spatial ESG datasets available at national scale across six main themes: people, land uses, water resources, extreme events, nature conservation, and governance. The paper then provides two proof-of-concept applications of ESG mapping to the Australian mining context and draws on these preliminary applications to propose a program of research aiming to fully utilise this technique to inform decision makers.
全球能源转型将推动对各种矿产的需求增加。澳大利亚拥有成熟的采矿业和丰富多样的矿产资源,完全有能力支持全球能源转型。矿业的潜在增长代表着一个经济机遇,然而,应对相关的环境、社会和治理(ESG)风险仍然是一个挑战。提高澳大利亚采矿业ESG资质的一个步骤是,矿山开发商、监管机构、社区、投资者和其他行业利益相关者能够将各种类型的ESG数据整合到决策过程中。本文为应用ESG制图奠定了基础,ESG制图是一种研究技术,它利用空间数据来分析和比较澳大利亚规模的采矿和勘探相关因素的采掘地点。为此,本文首先对全国范围内可用的33个空间ESG数据集进行了批判性审查,涉及六大主题:人、土地利用、水资源、极端事件、自然保护和治理。然后,本文提供了两个ESG制图在澳大利亚矿业背景下的概念验证应用,并借鉴这些初步应用,提出了一个旨在充分利用这一技术为决策者提供信息的研究计划。
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引用次数: 0
Venezuela's economic merry-go-round in the 21st century: a study through the prism of the political management of the oil rent 委内瑞拉在21世纪的经济旋转木马:通过石油租金政治管理的棱镜研究
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105587
Juan Barredo, Daniel Feliciano
The political management of oil revenues, combined with more conjunctural factors, constitutes the central reference from which to understand, with a long term perspective, the heterogeneous phases of the volatile macroeconomic evolution and its close relationship with the accelerated deterioration of the state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
Based on a combined study of PDVSA's operative and financial condition and its relationship with the Venezuelan central bank (BCV), this article identifies two stages in the political management of oil revenue that have shaped all these economic phases of the country in the last two decades as well as the dramatic crisis of the oil company. In a first stage, until 2017–2018, national access to international wealth was subsidized at the expense of PDVSA's viability. Since then, through monetized credit from the Central Bank and the reorientation of the exchange rate policy, an attempt is being made to save the oil company at the cost of an abrupt internal adjustment. The temporary combination of the subsidized access to foreign currency and the attempt to save PDVSA explains the hyperinflation period of 2017–2020.
This long-term view allows us to relativize the assertion that Venezuela was a typical case of the ‘Dutch disease’ during the expansion and crisis phases. On the other hand, we show that hyperinflation has a para-fiscal origin rather than a fiscal one. The strong nominal devaluation since 2018 marked the beginning of the incomplete contemporary recovery, in terms of growth, price moderation and financial relief for PDVSA.
石油收入的政治管理与更多的时变因素相结合,构成了从长期角度理解不稳定的宏观经济演变的不同阶段及其与国有石油公司Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA)加速恶化的密切关系的中心参考。基于对PDVSA的运营和财务状况及其与委内瑞拉中央银行(BCV)关系的综合研究,本文确定了石油收入政治管理的两个阶段,这两个阶段在过去二十年中塑造了该国所有这些经济阶段,以及石油公司的戏剧性危机。在第一阶段,直到2017-2018年,国家获得国际财富的补贴以牺牲PDVSA的生存能力为代价。从那时起,通过中央银行的货币化信贷和汇率政策的重新定位,人们试图以突然的内部调整为代价拯救这家石油公司。获得外汇补贴和试图拯救PDVSA的临时组合解释了2017-2020年的恶性通货膨胀期。这种长期观点使我们能够相对地断言委内瑞拉是扩张和危机阶段的典型“荷兰病”。另一方面,我们证明了恶性通货膨胀具有准财政根源,而不是财政根源。自2018年以来的强劲名义贬值标志着委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)在增长、价格放缓和财政缓解方面开始了不完整的当代复苏。
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引用次数: 0
The curse or blessing of natural resources: impact on entrepreneurship and gender dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa 自然资源的诅咒或祝福:对撒哈拉以南非洲创业和性别动态的影响
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105588
Charles Bertin Pilag Kakeu , John William Seugue Nietcho , Christelle Moko Fodop , Metchouani Jasmine Patience
The study examined the effect of natural resource abundance on entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a particular focus on gender dynamics. Empirical analyses were conducted using econometric methods such as ordinary least squares; generalized moments, Driscoll and Kraay; and quantile regression for a panel of 47 African economies between 1990 and 2023. The results show that the abundance of natural resources has a positive effect on entrepreneurship for both men and women, although this effect is more pronounced for women. However, when natural resource is disaggregated into different type of resources, the impact become greater on male entrepreneurship than on female entrepreneurship. Furthermore, the results indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between the abundance of natural resources and entrepreneurship. The study also highlights the crucial role of institutions in modulating the effect of natural resources on entrepreneurship and gender dynamic. Countries with better quality institutions, particularly those that fight corruption and ensure political stability; who put in place targeted policies to reduce inequalities in access to natural resources; who put in place programs to encourage female entrepreneurship in the natural resources sector; are better able to take advantage of natural resources to stimulate entrepreneurship. This study contributes to the stream of research that attempts to challenge the natural resource curse hypothesis by clarifying the conditions that enable African countries to evolve into more sustainable economies.
该研究审查了自然资源丰富对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)创业的影响,特别侧重于性别动态。采用普通最小二乘等计量经济学方法进行实证分析;广义矩,Driscoll和Kraay;以及对1990年至2023年间47个非洲经济体的分位数回归。结果表明,丰富的自然资源对男性和女性的创业都有积极影响,尽管这种影响对女性更为明显。然而,当自然资源被分解成不同类型的资源时,对男性企业家精神的影响大于对女性企业家精神的影响。此外,研究结果还表明,自然资源丰富程度与企业家精神之间存在倒u型关系。这项研究还强调了机构在调节自然资源对企业家精神和性别动态的影响方面的关键作用。拥有更高质量制度的国家,特别是那些打击腐败和确保政治稳定的国家;世卫组织制定了有针对性的政策,以减少获取自然资源方面的不平等现象;实施鼓励女性在自然资源领域创业的项目;能够更好地利用自然资源来激发创业精神。这项研究有助于通过澄清使非洲国家能够发展成为更可持续的经济体的条件来挑战自然资源诅咒假说的研究流。
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引用次数: 0
Rehabilitation costs paid by mining enterprises in Turkey: Comparison of rehabilitation costs with their shares in mining operation costs and other environmental costs 土耳其矿业企业支付的恢复成本:恢复成本与其在采矿作业成本和其他环境成本中所占份额的比较
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105593
Taşkın Deniz Yıldız
<div><div>Environmentally sustainable mining operations are becoming more and more important today. In this respect, the shares of different environmental costs paid by mining enterprises in mine operating costs are of interest. In Turkey, mining administrations collect environmental costs such as forestry costs and environmental compliance fees from mining enterprises using different calculation methods. Mining waste management costs and rehabilitation costs, on the other hand, are the costs that mining enterprises spend independently from mining administrations during the mining operating period to ensure compliance with the legislation. Among these, rehabilitation activities, which are considered at the center of the study, are evidence that mining enterprises are mining in harmony with the environment in a sustainable framework with their specific activity stages. Rehabilitation costs spent for rehabilitation activities are costs made at different stages of mining operations. In Turkey, rehabilitation costs are spent by mining enterprises on their initiative, but ignored by the administrations and the public. Because these costs are not paid to the administrations, the public can't have information about how much money is spent. The calculation of the ratio of this cost to the operating cost by considering the duration of mining operations may help the administrations to determine the optimum calculation methods of environmental costs in the presence of other environmental costs and to consider these costs in total. In this study, it is aimed to see environmental costs as a whole by emphasizing the rehabilitation costs of mining enterprises. It is also aimed to contribute to the post-mining sustainable land use process and forestland use. Accordingly, the ratio of rehabilitation costs contributing to used and returned forest areas to operating costs was considered and compared to each other in order for the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to reconsider the calculation methods of different types of forest costs charged from mining enterprises. In this way, this study also aims to raise awareness about the costs charged by the administrations from the enterprises and how much these costs constitute a total cost in the eyes of different ministries & administrations in terms of the annual costs of the enterprises. To this end, rehabilitation costs, waste management costs, environmental compliance fees, and forestry fees were compared together with their ratios to operating costs, and their changes according to mineral groups were analyzed. This study provides recommendations to policymakers on the nature and management of different environmental costs of mining enterprises that spend on environmentally compatible mining. This study also calculates rehabilitation costs per 1 ha of mining permit area and ton of mineral production. The study also analyzed whether rehabilitation costs are related to the area of forest used and returned, fore
环境可持续的采矿作业在今天变得越来越重要。在这方面,矿山企业所支付的不同环境成本在矿山经营成本中所占的份额是值得关注的。在土耳其,矿业管理部门使用不同的计算方法向矿业企业收取环境成本,如林业成本和环境合规费。另一方面,采矿废物管理费用和恢复费用是采矿企业在采矿作业期间独立于采矿行政当局支出的费用,以确保遵守立法。在这些活动中,被认为是研究中心的恢复活动证明,采矿企业在可持续的框架内,在其具体的活动阶段,与环境和谐地进行采矿。用于恢复活动的恢复费用是在采矿作业的不同阶段支付的费用。在土耳其,恢复费用由采矿企业主动支付,但被行政当局和公众忽视。由于这些费用没有支付给行政部门,公众无法知道花了多少钱。通过考虑采矿作业的持续时间来计算这一费用与作业费用的比率,可能有助于行政当局在存在其他环境费用的情况下确定环境费用的最佳计算方法,并从总体上考虑这些费用。在本研究中,通过强调矿山企业的修复成本,旨在将环境成本作为一个整体来看待。它还旨在促进采矿后的可持续土地利用进程和林地利用。因此,考虑并比较使用和归还森林面积的恢复费用占经营费用的比例,以便农林部重新考虑向矿山企业收取不同类型森林费用的计算方法。通过这种方式,本研究也旨在提高人们对行政部门向企业收取的成本的认识,以及这些成本在不同部委眼中占总成本的多少。根据企业的年度成本管理。为此,比较了恢复费用、废物管理费用、环境遵守费用和林业费用及其与业务费用的比率,并分析了它们按矿物类别的变化情况。本研究就环境相容采矿企业的不同环境成本的性质和管理向决策者提供建议。本研究还计算了每一公顷采矿许可面积和每吨矿物生产的恢复费用。该研究还分析了恢复成本是否与森林使用和归还的面积、森林质量以及城市休闲森林利用的重要性有关。此外,还评估了随着这些地区的增加,康复费用是否也会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Exploration of socio-environmental solutions in the mining industry in comparison to other industries: A data-driven unveiling perceptions 与其他行业相比,采矿业社会环境解决方案的探索:数据驱动的揭示观念
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105594
Shahryar Sorooshian
Through a data-driven approach, this research aims to uncover perceptions related to the industry's role in sustainable development. Correspondingly, this study explores socio-economic and environmental solutions within the mining industry and compares them to other industries. The analysis relies on archived data from the Thomson Reuters Asset4 (Asset4) database to examine and compare these perceptions across various industries. Utilizing a multiple criteria comparison, with the mean of analytical geometry concept, the collected database information offers insights into stakeholder perspectives. By contrasting the mining industry with nine other sectors including Banking, Automotive, and Construction, common patterns and discrepancies in perceptions are compared. From the analysis, the mining industry ranks lowest in socio-environmental performance compared to other sectors. The research findings enhanced our understanding of the mining industry's socio-environmental impacts and its potential for sustainable solutions. By addressing perceptions surrounding the mining industry, this study contributes to the ongoing discourse on sustainable practices and responsible resource extraction. Bridging the gap between industry practices and societal expectations, it facilitates evidence-based policies for sustainable development.
通过数据驱动的方法,本研究旨在揭示与该行业在可持续发展中的作用相关的认知。相应地,本研究探讨了采矿业内部的社会经济和环境解决方案,并将其与其他行业进行了比较。该分析依赖于汤森路透资产数据库(Asset4)的存档数据,以检查和比较不同行业的这些看法。利用多标准比较,与分析几何概念的平均值,收集的数据库信息提供了洞察利益相关者的观点。通过将采矿业与包括银行、汽车和建筑在内的其他9个行业进行对比,比较了常见的模式和观念上的差异。从分析来看,与其他部门相比,采矿业在社会环境绩效方面排名最低。研究结果增强了我们对采矿业的社会环境影响及其可持续解决方案潜力的理解。通过解决围绕采矿业的看法,本研究有助于正在进行的可持续实践和负责任的资源开采的论述。它弥合了行业实践与社会期望之间的差距,促进了以证据为基础的可持续发展政策。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the determinants of load capacity factor in Nigeria: An asymmetric quantile approach on urbanization, economic growth, FDI, and resource dependency 调查尼日利亚负荷能力因素的决定因素:城市化、经济增长、外国直接投资和资源依赖的非对称分位数方法
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105586
Seyi Saint Akadiri , Oktay Ozkan , Andrew Adewale Alola
Nigeria's pursuit of economic growth has raised concerns about its environmental sustainability, particularly regarding the effects of resource dependency, urbanization, and foreign direct investment (FDI). This study employs wavelet quantile regression (WQR) to examine how these factors influence Nigeria's load capacity factor from 1970 to 2022. Findings reveal that economic growth consistently degrades environmental quality across all quantiles, with worsening effects over time. FDI and urbanization similarly exert negative ecological impacts, particularly at medium and high quantiles. Resource dependency harms environmental quality at lower and higher quantiles but shows no effect at mid-levels. Wavelet quantile Granger causality (WQGC) confirms strong short- and medium-term causal relationships. These insights highlight the environmental costs of economic expansion and guide policymakers striving to balance development with sustainability.
尼日利亚对经济增长的追求引起了人们对其环境可持续性的关注,特别是在资源依赖、城市化和外国直接投资(FDI)的影响方面。本研究采用小波分位数回归(WQR)来研究这些因素如何影响尼日利亚1970年至2022年的负荷能力因子。研究结果显示,经济增长持续降低所有分位数的环境质量,随着时间的推移,影响会越来越严重。外国直接投资和城市化同样对生态产生负面影响,特别是在中位数和高位数。资源依赖在低、高分位数对环境质量有损害,在中分位数对环境质量无影响。小波分位数格兰杰因果关系(WQGC)证实了较强的中短期因果关系。这些见解突出了经济扩张的环境成本,并指导政策制定者努力平衡发展与可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating public-private partnerships in mining: An evolutionary game theory approach to strategic dynamics and regulatory impacts 评估矿业中的公私伙伴关系:战略动态和监管影响的进化博弈论方法
IF 10.2 2区 经济学 0 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105575
Amir Fazli Allah Abadi, Majid Ataee-pour
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the mining industry face challenges such as conflicts of interest, lack of transparency, and uncertain stakeholder cooperation, which reduce the effectiveness of these collaborations. This study employs evolutionary game theory to examine the strategic dynamics between the government (as a supervisor) and contractors (as executors) in mining PPPs. The proposed model utilizes replicator dynamics and numerical simulations to analyze the impact of regulatory mechanisms, including incentives, penalties, government oversight effectiveness, and contractor cooperation incentives. Data from the Angoran lead-zinc mine are used to validate the model. The results indicate that increasing penalties and incentives within the range of 3 %–12 % of total investment accelerates contractors’ transition toward cooperation, leading to a stable equilibrium with the strategy of “government negotiation and contractor cooperation.' Furthermore, strengthening supervision and cooperation incentives by 5–15 % accelerates the stabilization of equilibrium, and cooperation is in an optimal state at 10 %, where the interests of both parties are effectively aligned. This study introduces a novel framework for modeling stakeholder behavior in mining PPPs and provides insights into achieving equilibria in the game between players, where strategic interactions stabilize through balanced regulatory influence, offering policy recommendations for effective regulatory design.
采矿业的公私伙伴关系(ppp)面临着利益冲突、缺乏透明度和利益相关者合作不确定等挑战,这些挑战降低了这些合作的有效性。本研究运用演化博弈论,考察矿业公私合作项目中政府(作为监管方)与承包商(作为执行方)之间的战略动态。该模型利用复制因子动力学和数值模拟来分析监管机制的影响,包括激励、惩罚、政府监督有效性和承包商合作激励。利用安哥拉铅锌矿的数据对模型进行了验证。结果表明,在总投资的3% ~ 12%范围内增加惩罚和激励,可加速承包商向合作的过渡,最终达到“政府谈判-承包商合作”的稳定均衡。此外,将监管和合作激励力度提高5 - 15%,可以加速平衡的稳定,在10%时合作处于最优状态,此时双方的利益有效一致。本研究引入了一种新颖的框架来模拟采矿ppp中的利益相关者行为,并提供了在参与者之间的博弈中实现平衡的见解,其中战略互动通过平衡的监管影响稳定,为有效的监管设计提供了政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
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