A robust decision-making approach in climate policy design for possible net zero futures

IF 4.9 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Environmental Science & Policy Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI:10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103886
Mark Workman , Geoff Darch , Bastien Denisart , Diarmid Roberts , Mat Wilkes , Sol Brown , Lucas Kruitwagen
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Abstract

The energy modelling community’s analysis of net zero often relies on approaches that hide the extent of uncertainty. Meanwhile the extent of uncertainty involved in the realisation of net zero is proliferating. Conventional consolidative modelling approaches lack of transparency is distorting decision making and policy design around net zero. This contribution uses the UK’s Committee on Climate Changes 6th Carbon Budget as a case study. An exploratory, Robust Decision-Making approach is used to highlight the fragility of conventional UK modelling approaches in shaping national climate policy. A new suite of tools, orientation of analysis and mixed approaches are needed to address the extent of complexity, uncertainty and emergence in possible net zero futures. Only then will robust, inclusive and realisable climate policy be designed.

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针对可能的净零未来设计气候政策的稳健决策方法
能源模型界对净零值的分析往往依赖于掩盖不确定性程度的方法。与此同时,零净能源实现过程中的不确定性也在不断增加。传统的综合建模方法缺乏透明度,扭曲了围绕净零的决策和政策设计。本文以英国气候变化委员会第六次碳预算为案例进行研究。采用探索性的稳健决策方法,强调英国传统建模方法在制定国家气候政策方面的脆弱性。需要一套新的工具、分析方向和混合方法来解决可能的净零未来的复杂性、不确定性和新出现的问题。只有这样,才能设计出稳健、包容和可实现的气候政策。
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来源期刊
Environmental Science & Policy
Environmental Science & Policy 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
10.90
自引率
8.30%
发文量
332
审稿时长
68 days
期刊介绍: Environmental Science & Policy promotes communication among government, business and industry, academia, and non-governmental organisations who are instrumental in the solution of environmental problems. It also seeks to advance interdisciplinary research of policy relevance on environmental issues such as climate change, biodiversity, environmental pollution and wastes, renewable and non-renewable natural resources, sustainability, and the interactions among these issues. The journal emphasises the linkages between these environmental issues and social and economic issues such as production, transport, consumption, growth, demographic changes, well-being, and health. However, the subject coverage will not be restricted to these issues and the introduction of new dimensions will be encouraged.
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