Evaluation of ecosystem quality and stability based on key indicators and ideal reference frame: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

China has explicitly prioritized the enhancement of ecosystem quality and stability(EQS) as a governmental objective. However, our understanding of systematic and comprehensive assessment methods for EQS remains limited. The development and investigation of corresponding evaluation frameworks and their underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently explored. This study employs the concept of an "ideal reference system and key indicators,” integrating diverse ecosystem and human activity characteristics from perspectives such as ecosystem structure, function, and landscape vulnerability, to determine indicator weights using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and entropy weight method, thereby constructing an evaluation framework for assessing the quality and stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) ecosystem. The spatiotemporal variations in EQS from 2000 to 2018 were examined, and the key driving factors were identified using the optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results indicate that the EQS of the QTP exhibit a spatial distribution pattern characterized by higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. From 2000 to 2018, there has been a consistent improvement in the overall ecosystem quality and stability across the QTP. The EQS exhibit a significant synergistic effect, with high-high(26.59 ± 1.26%) and low-low(32.61 ± 1.45%) matching combinations becoming the predominant regional patterns. However, in climatic transition zones and glacial areas, the relationship between these factors is particularly distinctive, indicating ecosystem response mechanisms specific to certain natural environmental conditions. Vegetation cover(>0.697), evapotranspiration(>0.620), and precipitation(>0.688) are the primary natural factors influencing EQS, while the impact of human activities has become increasingly significant. Furthermore, the research findings underscore the positive effects of the variable climatic conditions of the QTP on ecosystems within the context of global climate warming, while the stringent implementation of ecological protection measures has collectively contributed to the enhancement of EQS. The proposed evaluation framework not only facilitates a comprehensive and precise assessment of regional EQS, but also provides a scientific basis for understanding and managing the adaptive responses of plateau ecosystems under the complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors.