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The impact of water rights reform on economic development: Evidence from city-level panel data in China. 水权改革对经济发展的影响:来自中国城市面板数据的证据。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124082
Hang Xu, Rui Yang

The water rights reform (WRR) is an important way to achieve market-oriented allocation of water resources. This article uses city-level panel data to analyze the economic effects of WRR in China. The results show that the WRR can increase overall value added by 4.40%. However, the average impact of WRR on agricultural value added is not significant, but it can significantly increase non-agricultural value added by 3.83%. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the WRR in cities with water rights conversion experience or in provincial capital or sub-provincial cities will have a smaller promotion effect on the overall economy than in other cities; in places with lower total water resources, the WRR will have a greater promoting effect on the overall economy. In areas where the total amount of water resources or sown area is small, the WRR can also promote the added value of agriculture. Cities participating in water rights conversion will achieve lower non-agricultural economic effects after the WRR, but in areas with higher population density, the non-agricultural economic effects the WRR can achieve will be greater. Further analysis shows that the WRR can promote the increase in the proportion of non-agricultural value added, and the increase in non-agricultural value added mainly comes from the industrial sector. Furthermore, the WRR does not threaten food security.

水权改革是实现水资源市场化配置的重要途径。本文采用城市层面的面板数据,分析了水资源回收在中国的经济效应。结果表明,水资源利用率可使总增加值提高4.40%。而WRR对农业增加值的平均影响不显著,但能显著提高非农增加值3.83%。异质性分析表明,具有水权转换经验的城市、省会城市和副省会城市的水资源效率对整体经济的促进作用小于其他城市;在水资源总量较低的地区,水资源资源量对整体经济的促进作用更大。在水资源总量或播种面积较小的地区,水资源资源量还可以促进农业的附加值。参与水权转换的城市在水资源还原后的非农经济效应较低,但在人口密度较高的地区,水资源还原可实现的非农经济效应较大。进一步分析表明,WRR能够促进非农增加值比重的提升,且非农增加值的提升主要来自于工业部门。此外,水资源储备不会威胁粮食安全。
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引用次数: 0
A paradigm shift for evaluating natural attenuation of radioactive iodine in soils and sediments: Species-specific mechanisms and pathways. 评估土壤和沉积物中放射性碘自然衰减的范式转变:物种特异性机制和途径。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124101
Hilary P Emerson, Nikolla P Qafoku, Christian D Johnson, James E Szecsody, Mariah S Doughman, Rob D Mackley, Daniel I Kaplan

The primary approach to assessing monitored natural attenuation (MNA) is currently based on a conceptual model utilizing the total contaminant concentrations, assuming a single aqueous species. However, many contaminants, such as metals and radionuclide - including iodine, can exist in multiple species that behave chemically differently in the environment and can exist simultaneously. For example, radioiodine often occurs concurrently as three major aqueous species: iodide (I-), iodate (IO3-), and organo-I, which undergo distinct attenuation pathways and exhibit markedly different mobility and geochemical behavior. Here, current literature is reviewed with the objective to: 1) demonstrate differences in iodine species' geochemical behavior and natural attenuation mechanisms; 2) show that a species-specific (or multi-species) approach provides greater details on contaminant migration and attenuation; and (3) discuss the logistics of a species-specific approach to developing conceptual models for assessing overall contaminant mobility. The species-specific approach results in a more accurate assessment of mass flux and maximum groundwater concentrations; and, therefore, a more defensible risk evaluation to support short- or long-term remediation and/or natural attenuation strategies. Although iodine is the focus of this paper, this methodology could be applied to other risk-driving contaminants such as mercury and uranium, which have even more complex aqueous speciation than iodine, or technetium and chromium, which have complex solid phase speciation and natural attenuation reaction networks. Accounting for species-specific geochemical behavior, while implementing MNA strategies can greatly reduce uncertainty, and, therefore, remedial costs required to ultimately achieve remediation regulatory objectives.

目前,评估监测自然衰减(MNA)的主要方法是基于一个概念模型,该模型利用污染物的总浓度,假设存在单一的含水物种。然而,许多污染物,如金属和放射性核素——包括碘——可以存在于多种物种中,这些物种在环境中的化学行为不同,可以同时存在。例如,放射性碘通常以碘化物(I-)、碘酸盐(IO3-)和有机碘(IO3-)这三种主要水相同时存在,它们经历不同的衰减途径,表现出明显不同的迁移率和地球化学行为。本文对国内外相关文献进行了综述,目的是:1)揭示不同碘种的地球化学行为和自然衰减机制的差异;2)表明物种特异性(或多物种)方法提供了更多关于污染物迁移和衰减的细节;(3)讨论开发用于评估整体污染物流动性的概念模型的特定物种方法的逻辑。针对特定物种的方法可以更准确地评估质量通量和最大地下水浓度;因此,需要一个更有说服力的风险评估来支持短期或长期的修复和/或自然衰减策略。虽然碘是本文的重点,但这种方法可以应用于其他风险驱动污染物,如汞和铀,它们具有比碘更复杂的水相形态,或具有复杂固相形态和自然衰减反应网络的锝和铬。考虑到物种特有的地球化学行为,同时实施MNA策略可以大大减少不确定性,因此,最终实现补救监管目标所需的补救成本。
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引用次数: 0
Synergistic effects of clays and cyanobacteria on the accumulation dynamics of soil organic carbon in artificial biocrusts. 粘土和蓝藻对人工生物结皮土壤有机碳积累动态的协同效应
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124110
Cui Zhang, Xiaoran Chen, Keqiang Zhou, Jianbo Li, J Viridiana García Meza, Shaoxian Song, María Luciana Montes, Nasriddinov Zamoniddin, Ling Xia

Biocrusts are the primary organic carbon reservoirs in desert areas, in which inorganic clays potentially playing significant roles; however, the specific details of these roles remain largely unclear. In this study, typical 1:1 type (kaolin) and 2:1 type (montmorillonite, MMT) clay minerals were added to artificial biocrusts to investigate their effect on the acquisition performance of soil organic carbon (SOC). After 84 days of cultivation, the enhancement effects of kaolin and MMT were significant, resulting in SOC increments that were 5.03 times and 4.08 times higher than those of the Algae group (without clay). Notably, the two types of clay exhibited different advantages in SOC accumulation. Due to its larger external specific surface area and higher cation exchange capacity, MMT contributes more effectively to SOC stability. Specifically, the mineralization quotient (qM), hot-water extractable organic carbon (HWEOC), and molecular structural stability of SOC in the MMT group were 0.3, 0.34, and 1.31 times those of the Algae group, respectively. In contrast, kaolin was more favorable for microbial growth and SOC formation due to its higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content. Microbial biomass carbon (MBC), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), photosynthetic performance index (PIABS), and Shannon index in the kaolin group were 5.67, 2.44, 11.95, and 1.82 times those of the Algae group, respectively. These findings highlighted the synergistic effect for SOC accumulation of clay and cyanobacteria in artificial biocrust systems, clarified the specific roles of two typical clay minerals, and offered new insights for accelerating the restoration of nutrient-limited areas such as deserts.

生物结壳是荒漠地区主要的有机碳储集层,其中无机粘土可能发挥重要作用;然而,这些角色的具体细节在很大程度上仍不清楚。在人工生物结皮中添加典型的1:1型(高岭土)和2:1型(蒙脱土)粘土矿物,研究其对土壤有机碳(SOC)获取性能的影响。培养84 d后,高岭土和MMT的强化效果显著,土壤有机碳增量分别比不添加粘土的藻类组高5.03倍和4.08倍。值得注意的是,两种类型的粘土在有机碳积累方面表现出不同的优势。由于其更大的外比表面积和更高的阳离子交换能力,MMT更有效地促进了SOC的稳定性。其中,MMT组的矿化商(qM)、热水可萃取有机碳(HWEOC)和有机碳分子结构稳定性分别是藻类组的0.3倍、0.34倍和1.31倍。而高岭土由于其较高的溶解有机碳(DOC)含量,更有利于微生物生长和有机碳的形成。高岭土组微生物生物量碳(MBC)、叶绿素a (Chl-a)、光合性能指数(PIABS)和Shannon指数分别是藻类组的5.67倍、2.44倍、11.95倍和1.82倍。这些发现突出了人工生物结壳系统中黏土矿物和蓝藻对有机碳积累的协同效应,明确了两种典型黏土矿物的具体作用,为加快沙漠等营养受限地区的恢复提供了新的思路。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic classification and attention mechanism-based bidirectional long short-term memory network for daily runoff prediction in Aksu River basin, Northwest China. 基于动态分类和注意机制的阿克苏河流域径流日预报双向长短期记忆网络
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124121
Qing Wei, Ju Yang, Fangbing Fu, Lianqing Xue

Inland river runoff variability is pivotal for maintaining regional ecological stability. Daily flow forecasting in arid regions is crucial in understanding water body ecological processes and promoting healthy river ecology. Precise daily runoff forecasting serves as a cornerstone for ecological evaluation, management, and decision-making. With the advancement of artificial intelligence technology, data-driven models have exhibited promising capabilities in runoff prediction. Nevertheless, the arbitrary selection of boundaries between different flow patterns without considering temporal changes across seasons limits the accuracy of runoff simulation. This paper proposed an integrated modeling approach encompassing a dynamic classification method, an attention mechanism, and a bidirectional long short-term memory network (CA-BiLSTM) to enhance flow prediction performance while accommodating diverse flow patterns. The classification boundary was determined by the dynamic change interval value of relevant hydrological variables, facilitating a more comprehensive exploration of the relationships and information within hydrological data. The performance of the CA-BiLSTM model was compared against a traditional machine learning model lacking data classification, utilizing data from the West Bridge station of the Aksu River Basin (ARB). The results indicate that the CA-BiLSTM model outperforms traditional LSTM and BiLSTM models across all seasons. The CA-BiLSTM model demonstrates superior performance in arid zones. Compared to the single LSTM model, CA-BiLSTM exhibits reductions of 42.99%, 36.89%, and 49.73% in MAE, RMSE, and MAPE, respectively, while enhancing R2 and KGE by 10.47% and 11.76%. The proposed hybrid model effectively reduces runoff prediction uncertainty, offering valuable insights for water resource management in arid zones.

内陆河径流变化是维持区域生态稳定的关键。干旱区日流量预报是了解干旱区水体生态过程,促进河流生态健康发展的重要手段。精确的日径流预报是生态评价、管理和决策的基础。随着人工智能技术的进步,数据驱动模型在径流预测中显示出了良好的能力。然而,在不考虑季节间时间变化的情况下,任意选择不同流型之间的边界限制了径流模拟的准确性。本文提出了一种包含动态分类方法、注意机制和双向长短期记忆网络(CA-BiLSTM)的综合建模方法,以提高流预测能力,同时适应不同的流模式。分类边界由相关水文变量的动态变化区间值确定,便于更全面地探索水文数据内部的关系和信息。利用阿克苏河流域西桥站(ARB)的数据,将CA-BiLSTM模型与缺乏数据分类的传统机器学习模型进行性能比较。结果表明,CA-BiLSTM模型在所有季节都优于传统的LSTM和BiLSTM模型。CA-BiLSTM模型在干旱区具有较好的应用效果。与单一LSTM模型相比,CA-BiLSTM模型的MAE、RMSE和MAPE分别降低了42.99%、36.89%和49.73%,R2和KGE分别提高了10.47%和11.76%。该混合模型有效地降低了径流预测的不确定性,为干旱区水资源管理提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Long-term diverse straw management influences arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal community structure and plant growth in a rice-rotated wheat cropping system. 长期不同秸秆管理对稻麦轮作系统丛枝菌根真菌群落结构和植株生长的影响。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124227
Jie Zhou, Peixin Guo, Shupeng Huang, Chunyan Liu, Yuekai Wang, Fengmin Li, Weiping Chen, Qian Zhang, Lingling Shi, Haishui Yang

Communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) in soil are influenced by various agricultural managements, which in turn affects crop productivity. However, the impacts of straw returning on AMF communities are sparsely understood. Here, a 7-year field experiment including three sets of straw managements - returning methods (CK: no-tillage without straw; RT-SR: rotary tillage with straw; DB-SR: ditch-buried tillage with straw), burial amount, burial depth - were applied to evaluate the influences of straw managements on AMF composition. With full amounts of straw return, AMF diversity was similar between DB-SR and CK at a depth of 20 cm, whilst it was 13% higher than that under RT-SR. This could be explained by the increased rhizodeposition under DB-SR may counterbalance the negative effect of tillage under RT-SR on AMF hyphal growth. DB-SR changed AMF composition and enhanced the abundance of Glomeraceae, as well as the amount of glomalin-related protein, as a consequence increased plant P uptake by 68% than RT-SR. DB-SR remained stable plant P uptake and wheat biomass at a burial depth of 40 cm, but it decreased AMF diversity and the abundance of Glomeraceae as compared to DB-SR at a burial of 20 cm. This indicated DB-SR at a burial depth of 40 cm may be not beneficial to crop growth. Our results suggest that ditch-buried straw return with a depth of 20 cm and full amounts of straws is promising to improve soil health (via regulating AMF community diversity and composition) and promote crop production (via increasing plant P uptake).

土壤中丛枝菌根真菌(AMF)的群落受各种农业管理方式的影响,进而影响作物的生产力。然而,秸秆还田对AMF群落的影响尚不清楚。本研究采用3套秸秆还田管理方法(CK:免耕免秸秆;RT-SR:秸秆轮作;采用秸秆沟埋法(DB-SR)、秸秆掩埋量、秸秆掩埋深度评价不同秸秆管理方式对土壤AMF组成的影响。在秸秆全还田条件下,20 cm深度下,DB-SR与CK的AMF多样性基本一致,比RT-SR高13%。这可能是因为DB-SR下增加的根沉积可以抵消RT-SR下耕作对AMF菌丝生长的负面影响。与RT-SR相比,DB-SR改变了AMF组成,提高了肾小球科植物的丰度和肾小球素相关蛋白的数量,使植物对P的吸收增加了68%。埋深为40 cm时,DB-SR保持了稳定的植物磷吸收和小麦生物量,但与埋深为20 cm时相比,DB-SR降低了AMF多样性和Glomeraceae丰度。说明埋深为40 cm的DB-SR可能不利于作物生长。我们的研究结果表明,沟埋秸秆还田深度为20 cm且秸秆数量充足有望改善土壤健康(通过调节AMF群落多样性和组成)和促进作物生产(通过增加植物磷素吸收)。
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引用次数: 0
Major global ports alter light regimes for marine biofouling communities. 全球主要港口改变了海洋生物污染群落的光照制度。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124119
Nina Schaefer, Melanie J Bishop, Brett Herbert, Andrew S Hoey, Mariana Mayer-Pinto, Craig D H Sherman, Cian Foster-Thorpe, Maria L Vozzo, Katherine A Dafforn

Globally, there are more than 17,000 cargo-handling ports that are expected to double in capacity by 2030. Overwater structures are common in ports and create permanently shaded environments that can produce ecological shifts from primary-producer to consumer dominated communities. Yet, the extent of these structures across ports and their impact on light conditions and associated communities in different areas beneath has not been quantified. Here we quantified the spatial extent of overwater structures in 17 major global ports and found a total estimated area of >13.96 km2 of seabed to be shaded. We then surveyed in situ overwater structures in Sydney Harbour, Australia, to directly measure the impacts of these structures on light intensity and marine communities. We show that overwater structures can reduce light levels between 37 and 83% and shift ecological communities from mixed algal-invertebrate communities towards invertebrate dominance. This study provides critical evidence of the impacts of port structures on natural light regimes and ecological communities, and highlights the need for sustainable solutions (e.g. light penetrating surfaces, artificial light) to restore natural light regimes to global ports to maintain algal communities and associated ecosystem services in areas that are shaded by overwater structures.

全球有超过1.7万个货物处理港口,预计到2030年吞吐量将翻一番。水上结构在港口中很常见,并创造了永久的阴影环境,可以产生从初级生产者到消费者主导的社区的生态转变。然而,这些横跨港口的结构的范围及其对不同地区的光照条件和相关社区的影响尚未被量化。在这里,我们量化了全球17个主要港口的水上结构的空间范围,发现海底被遮蔽的估计总面积为bb1013.96 km2。然后,我们调查了澳大利亚悉尼港的原位水上结构,以直接测量这些结构对光强度和海洋群落的影响。我们发现,水上结构可以减少37%至83%的光照水平,并将生态群落从藻类-无脊椎动物混合群落转变为无脊椎动物优势群落。本研究提供了港口结构对自然光和生态群落影响的关键证据,并强调需要可持续的解决方案(如透光面、人造光)来恢复全球港口的自然光,以维持被水上结构遮蔽的地区的藻类群落和相关生态系统服务。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing foraging landscape quality in Quebec's commercial beekeeping through remote sensing, machine learning, and survival analysis. 通过遥感、机器学习和生存分析评估魁北克商业养蜂的觅食景观质量。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124157
Julien Vadnais, Liliana Perez, Nico Coallier

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) play an important role in our agricultural systems. In recent years, beekeepers have reported high colony mortality rates in several parts of the world. Inadequate foraging landscapes are often cited as a major factor deterring honey bee colony health. Few studies, if any, have yet used large-scale datasets to assess the quality of landscapes encountered in commercial pollination activities. Here, we coupled a unique dataset comprising georeferenced reports on 17,743 colonies in the province of Quebec, Canada, with data derived from satellite remote sensing, to compute landscape metrics at each visited location. We ran a Cox and a random survival forests (RSF) model with time-weighted features to predict the lifespan of colonies in various landscape scenarios. Survival estimates from our RSF model indicate that colonies foraging primarily in forested areas exhibit higher survival rates, whereas those in cranberry- and maize-dominated landscapes may face lower survival probabilities. Our findings suggest that vegetation abundance could play a significant role in shaping outcomes. Additionally, landscape diversity within a 1 km radius seems to have a positive effect, with potentially greater benefits in areas where vegetation is sparse. While topography contributes valuable predictive insights, its effects are complex and challenging to fully interpret.

蜜蜂(Apis mellifera)在我们的农业系统中发挥着重要作用。近年来,养蜂人报告说,世界上一些地方的蜂群死亡率很高。不适当的觅食环境通常被认为是阻碍蜂群健康的主要因素。很少有研究(如果有的话)使用大规模数据集来评估商业授粉活动中遇到的景观质量。在这里,我们结合了一个独特的数据集,包括加拿大魁北克省17,743个殖民地的地理参考报告,以及来自卫星遥感的数据,以计算每个访问地点的景观指标。我们运行了Cox和随机生存森林(RSF)模型,并结合时间加权特征来预测不同景观情景下蜂群的寿命。RSF模型的生存估计表明,主要在森林地区觅食的蚁群存活率较高,而在蔓越莓和玉米为主的景观中觅食的蚁群存活率较低。我们的研究结果表明,植被丰富度可能在形成结果方面发挥重要作用。此外,1公里半径内的景观多样性似乎有积极的影响,在植被稀疏的地区可能有更大的好处。虽然地形有助于提供有价值的预测见解,但其影响是复杂的,很难完全解释。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative study on lake ice phenology changes and driving factors in large lakes of mid-latitude Xinjiang, China. 新疆中纬度大湖泊湖泊冰物候变化及驱动因素比较研究
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123880
Yimuran Kuluwan, Yusufujiang Rusuli, Mireguli Ainiwaer, Wu Haizhi, Kadierye Maolan

The changes in lake ice phenology (LIP) can intuitively reflect the climate evolution in the regions where lakes are located, serving as an important indicator of climate change. The Tianshan Mountains, situated at the southern edge of freezing lakes in the Northern Hemisphere, are a crucial water resource base in Xinjiang and support significant ecosystems closely related to human activities. In the context of intensified climate change, this study focuses on the geographical location, altitude, and water quality differences among large lake groups in the mid-latitude region of Xinjiang, aiming to explore the characteristics of LIP changes in these lakes and their responses to driving factors, thereby providing a basis for effective environmental management and protection. This research conducts a comparative analysis of the LIP changes and driving factors of three large lakes-Sayram Lake (SL), Bosten Lake (BL), and Ebnur Lake (EL)-using multi-source remote sensing data to reveal the response and adaptation mechanisms of lakes under global warming. It effectively captures the time series variations of ice formation and melting, as well as the common responses to environmental and climatic factors. The results indicate that SL has experienced significant climate change effects, with earlier freezing times and accelerated melting speeds; In contrast, EL and BL have shown relatively minor changes, suggesting that geographical and hydrological factors may buffer the impacts of climate. The study finds that all three lakes are jointly influenced by environmental factors such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation; however, due to differences in altitude, lake surface area, and water transparency, their responses to these climatic factors vary significantly. For instance, SL's high altitude gives water transparency a dominant role in LIP, while BL's larger surface area enhances the impact of precipitation and thermal capacity on the melting process. This indicates that, despite facing similar climate pressures, local environmental conditions can lead to different trends in ice phenology changes. This study offers a novel and efficient monitoring method for LIP, providing valuable insights for future LIP research and water resource management.

湖冰物候(LIP)的变化可以直观地反映湖泊所在地区的气候演变,是气候变化的重要指标。天山山脉位于北半球冰湖南缘,是新疆重要的水资源基地,支撑着与人类活动密切相关的重要生态系统。在气候变化加剧的背景下,以新疆中纬度地区大型湖泊群的地理位置、海拔高度和水质差异为研究对象,探讨中纬度地区大型湖泊群的LIP变化特征及其对驱动因素的响应,为有效的环境管理和保护提供依据。本研究利用多源遥感数据,对赛拉姆湖(SL)、博斯腾湖(BL)和艾布努尔湖(EL) 3个大型湖泊的LIP变化及其驱动因素进行了对比分析,揭示了全球变暖下湖泊的响应与适应机制。它有效地捕获了冰形成和融化的时间序列变化,以及对环境和气候因素的共同反应。结果表明:冻土带受气候变化影响显著,冻结时间提前,融化速度加快;相反,EL和BL的变化相对较小,说明地理和水文因素可能会缓冲气候的影响。研究发现,三个湖泊都受到温度、风速、降水等环境因素的共同影响;然而,由于海拔高度、湖面面积和水体透明度的差异,它们对这些气候因子的响应差异很大。例如,SL的高海拔使水的透明度在LIP中占主导地位,而BL较大的表面积增强了降水和热容量对融化过程的影响。这表明,尽管面临相似的气候压力,但当地环境条件可能导致不同的冰物候变化趋势。本研究提供了一种新颖高效的LIP监测方法,为今后的LIP研究和水资源管理提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Regional green economies and Bitcoin's electricity consumption: Paving the way for global sustainability. 区域绿色经济和比特币的电力消耗:为全球可持续发展铺平道路。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123997
Samet Gunay, Destan Kirimhan, Sercan Demiralay

In the context of global sustainability goals, it is imperative to examine the interplay between emerging financial technologies and environmental objectives, which in turn offers insights into the implications of such technologies on sustainable investments and environmental policy decisions. Accordingly, this study investigates the influence of Bitcoin's energy consumption (BEC), as a representative of the cryptocurrency market, on the regional green economy indices of the United States, Europe, and Asia. Utilizing both unfiltered and filtered data, we conduct empirical analyses from both static and dynamic perspectives to account for the causal relationships that emerged during critical market developments, employing novel algorithms including forward recursive, rolling windows, and recursive rolling. The results reveal that energy-related developments play a dominant role in shaping the causal link between BEC and the green economy performance. More specifically, events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and China's ban on cryptocurrency mining appear to significantly drive casual effects. After filtering out the impacts of global equity markets and information technology developments, we observe even more pronounced impacts on these causal relationships. Our findings highlight the need for coordinated global actions to address the energy consumption of the cryptocurrency market, facilitating the transition to global sustainability.

在全球可持续发展目标的背景下,必须研究新兴金融技术与环境目标之间的相互作用,这反过来又为这些技术对可持续投资和环境政策决策的影响提供了见解。因此,本研究考察了作为加密货币市场代表的比特币的能源消耗(BEC)对美国、欧洲和亚洲区域绿色经济指数的影响。利用未经过滤和过滤的数据,我们从静态和动态两个角度进行实证分析,以解释关键市场发展期间出现的因果关系,采用新颖的算法,包括前向递归、滚动窗口和递归滚动。结果表明,能源相关的发展在塑造BEC与绿色经济绩效之间的因果关系中起着主导作用。更具体地说,诸如COVID-19大流行、俄罗斯-乌克兰战争以及中国禁止加密货币挖矿等事件似乎显著地推动了偶然影响。在过滤掉全球股票市场和信息技术发展的影响后,我们观察到对这些因果关系的影响更为明显。我们的研究结果强调,需要采取协调一致的全球行动来解决加密货币市场的能源消耗问题,促进向全球可持续性过渡。
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引用次数: 0
High-resolution assessment of climate change impacts on the surface energy and water balance in the glaciated Naryn River basin, Central Asia. 气候变化对中亚纳林河冰川流域地表能量和水分平衡影响的高分辨率评估。
IF 8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.124021
Sanjar Sadyrov, Erkin Isaev, Kenji Tanaka, Akihiko Murata, Roy C Sidle

Mountain regions of Central Asia are experiencing strong influences from climate change, with significant reductions in snow cover and glacial reserves. A comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences under the worst-case climate scenario is vital for adaptation measures throughout the region. Water balance analysis in the Naryn River basin was conducted for the baseline period of 1981-2000 including potential changes under the worst-case SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2077-2096 by combining high-resolution (5 km) regional climate projections with fully distributed glacio-hydrological (1 km) modeling. Results showed that with the complete degradation of glaciers and increase in evapotranspiration, the overall runoff will decrease by 16%, and in the upper basins, the reduction will exceed 40%. The maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decrease by 17%, and the seasonal peak of SWE will occur one month earlier. The transition from snow to rain will significantly affect lower regions, increasing extremes in peak runoff and causing 10-year recurrence interval events to occur every 3-4 years. Moreover, extreme runoff in high mountainous areas will increase due to intensified snowmelt and increased rainfall extremes. Additionally, a gradient of surface soil temperature change of 0.1 °C per 100 m elevation gain was observed, suggesting a potential snow-albedo feedback effect that could further amplify the warming, especially at higher altitudes. This study provides a robust analytical framework to assess the complex responses of mountain ecosystems to the impacts of climate change, with the potential of widespread application for addressing the challenges facing these critical regions.

中亚山区正受到气候变化的强烈影响,积雪和冰川储量显著减少。全面评估最坏气候情景下的潜在后果对于整个地区的适应措施至关重要。采用高分辨率(5 km)区域气候预估和全分布式(1 km)冰川-水文模拟相结合的方法,对Naryn河流域1981-2000年基线期的水平衡进行了分析,包括2077-2096年SSP5-8.5最坏情景下的潜在变化。结果表明:随着冰川完全退化和蒸散量的增加,流域总径流量将减少16%,上游流域减少幅度超过40%;最大雪水当量(SWE)预计将减少17%,季节高峰将提前一个月出现。从雪到雨的转变将显著影响较低的地区,增加峰值径流的极端事件,并导致每3-4年发生一次10年复发间隔事件。此外,由于融雪加剧和极端降雨增加,高山区的极端径流将增加。此外,观测到每100 m海拔增加0.1°C的地表土壤温度梯度变化,表明潜在的雪反照率反馈效应可能进一步放大变暖,特别是在高海拔地区。该研究为评估山区生态系统对气候变化影响的复杂响应提供了一个强有力的分析框架,具有广泛应用于解决这些关键地区面临的挑战的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Environmental Management
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