Internal Variability Dominated the Extreme Cold Wave Over North America in December 2022

Abstract

In December 2022, North America experienced an unprecedented extreme cold event. However, the underlying physical mechanisms of this cold wave, and the extent to which it is driven by internal variability or external forcing, are not fully understood. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution simulations, we identified internal variability as the main cause, contributing −5.14 K to surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in North America. External forcing slightly mitigated the cold by 0.42 K. An internally generated wave train from the North Pacific, influenced in combination by Pacific-North American (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) teleconnection patterns, initiated this intense cyclonic event, contributing −2.18 K and −2.12 K to SAT anomalies, respectively. La Niña-like sea surface temperature anomalies amplified this wave train and resultant cold wave. Additionally, excessive snow cover in the previous November also intensified the December cold anomalies by enhancing surface albedo and reducing solar radiation.