{"title":"Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region","authors":"Ernesto Tejedor, Gerardo Benito, Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Fidel González-Rouco, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00771-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The 2022 and 2023 western Mediterranean summer temperatures exceeded millennial natural variability, reaching unprecedented anomalies of +3.6 °C and +2.9 °C respectively. We show that anthropogenic climate change may turn extreme heatwaves from a rarity of 1 in 10,000 years into events occurring every 4–75 years, depending on future scenarios. This shift underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies as extreme climate events manifest sooner and more intensely than expected.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00771-6.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00771-6","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The 2022 and 2023 western Mediterranean summer temperatures exceeded millennial natural variability, reaching unprecedented anomalies of +3.6 °C and +2.9 °C respectively. We show that anthropogenic climate change may turn extreme heatwaves from a rarity of 1 in 10,000 years into events occurring every 4–75 years, depending on future scenarios. This shift underscores the urgency of implementing adaptive strategies as extreme climate events manifest sooner and more intensely than expected.
期刊介绍：
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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