{"title":"Construction and validation of a novel forecasting nomogram to the risk of colorectal adenomas: preventing colorectal cancer at its origin","authors":"Mao Li, Mingyu Cui, Xiaobin Zhou, Ying Song","doi":"10.1158/1940-6207.capr-24-0066","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Colorectal adenomas are responsible for the origin of most colorectal cancers (CRC). Early detection together with active intervention of colorectal adenomas plays a crucial role in the prevention of colorectal cancer. This study aimed to construct and validate a new nomogram for the forecasting of the risk of colorectal adenomas based on lifestyle risk factors that could offer potential benefits for CRC prevention. Colonoscopy reports, pathology reports, physical factors, family history, personal history of disease, diet, and lifestyle habits were collected from 1133 subjects who underwent complete colonoscopy. All subjects were divided into the training cohort (n = 792) and the validation cohort (n = 341). A nomogram predicting the risk of colorectal adenoma development was constructed using the training cohort and the C-index was calculated. The predictive accuracy and clinical applicability of the nomogram were verified in the validation cohort. The nomogram was constructed by 6 statistically significant variables selected from 18 health factors, including advanced age, male, smoking, drinking, pickles, and irregular defecation. The C-index of the training cohort was 0.778 and the C-index of the validation cohort was 0.754. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) also confirmed that the model has good predictive ability and high profit. The nomogram constructed in this study was validated and can be applied to predicting the occurrence risk of colorectal adenoma. The model can guide the identification of patients with non-symptomatic colorectal adenomas and the recognition of high-risk individuals for whom a colonoscopy is advisable.","PeriodicalId":9373,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Prevention Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Prevention Research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1158/1940-6207.capr-24-0066","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Colorectal adenomas are responsible for the origin of most colorectal cancers (CRC). Early detection together with active intervention of colorectal adenomas plays a crucial role in the prevention of colorectal cancer. This study aimed to construct and validate a new nomogram for the forecasting of the risk of colorectal adenomas based on lifestyle risk factors that could offer potential benefits for CRC prevention. Colonoscopy reports, pathology reports, physical factors, family history, personal history of disease, diet, and lifestyle habits were collected from 1133 subjects who underwent complete colonoscopy. All subjects were divided into the training cohort (n = 792) and the validation cohort (n = 341). A nomogram predicting the risk of colorectal adenoma development was constructed using the training cohort and the C-index was calculated. The predictive accuracy and clinical applicability of the nomogram were verified in the validation cohort. The nomogram was constructed by 6 statistically significant variables selected from 18 health factors, including advanced age, male, smoking, drinking, pickles, and irregular defecation. The C-index of the training cohort was 0.778 and the C-index of the validation cohort was 0.754. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) also confirmed that the model has good predictive ability and high profit. The nomogram constructed in this study was validated and can be applied to predicting the occurrence risk of colorectal adenoma. The model can guide the identification of patients with non-symptomatic colorectal adenomas and the recognition of high-risk individuals for whom a colonoscopy is advisable.
期刊介绍:
Cancer Prevention Research publishes original studies, reviews, and perspectives in the field of cancer prevention. Its scope includes the molecular and cellular biology of premalignancy and early lesions; genetic and environmental risk factors; risk assessment and reduction; early detection research (cancer screening and diagnosis); and preventive interventions (chemoprevention, immunoprevention, and others) to intercept cancer development at early stages prior to initiation, promotion, or progression. The journal comprises preclinical, clinical, and translational research, with special attention given to molecular discoveries and an emphasis on building a translational bridge between the basic and clinical sciences.