Leveraging Large Language Models for Predicting Cost and Duration in Software Engineering Projects

Justin Carpenter, Chia-Ying Wu, Nasir U. Eisty
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Abstract

Accurate estimation of project costs and durations remains a pivotal challenge in software engineering, directly impacting budgeting and resource management. Traditional estimation techniques, although widely utilized, often fall short due to their complexity and the dynamic nature of software development projects. This study introduces an innovative approach using Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance the accuracy and usability of project cost predictions. We explore the efficacy of LLMs against traditional methods and contemporary machine learning techniques, focusing on their potential to simplify the estimation process and provide higher accuracy. Our research is structured around critical inquiries into whether LLMs can outperform existing models, the ease of their integration into current practices, outperform traditional estimation, and why traditional methods still prevail in industry settings. By applying LLMs to a range of real-world datasets and comparing their performance to both state-of-the-art and conventional methods, this study aims to demonstrate that LLMs not only yield more accurate estimates but also offer a user-friendly alternative to complex predictive models, potentially transforming project management strategies within the software industry.
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利用大型语言模型预测软件工程项目的成本和工期
准确估算项目成本和工期仍然是软件工程中的一个关键挑战,直接影响到预算编制和资源管理。传统的估算技术虽然得到了广泛应用,但由于其复杂性和软件开发项目的动态性,往往无法达到预期效果。本研究介绍了一种使用大型语言模型(LLM)的创新方法,以提高项目成本预测的准确性和可用性。我们探讨了 LLMs 对传统方法和当代机器学习技术的功效,重点关注 LLMs 在简化估算过程和提供更高精度方面的潜力。我们的研究围绕以下关键问题展开:LLM 是否能够超越现有模型,是否易于集成到当前实践中,是否能够超越传统估算方法,以及为什么传统方法在行业环境中仍然占主导地位。通过将 LLMs 应用于一系列实际数据集,并将其性能与最先进的方法和传统方法进行比较,本研究旨在证明 LLMs 不仅能产生更准确的估算结果,还能提供一种用户友好型方法来替代复杂的预测模型,从而有可能改变软件行业的项目管理策略。
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