Wet bulb globe temperature from climate model outputs: a method for projecting hourly site-specific values and trends

Abstract

Increasing temperature will impact future outdoor worker safety but quantifying this impact to develop local adaptations is challenging. Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is the preferred thermal index for regulating outdoor activities in occupational health, athletic, and military settings, but global circulation models (GCMs) have coarse spatiotemporal resolution and do not always provide outputs required to project the full diurnal range of WBGT. This article presents a novel method to project WBGT at local spatial and hourly temporal resolutions without many assumptions inherent in previous research. We calculate sub-daily future WBGT from GCM output and then estimate hourly WBGT based on a site-specific, historical diurnal cycles. We test this method against observations at U.S. Army installations and find results match closely. We then project hourly WBGT at these locations from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2100, to quantify trends and estimate future periods exceeding outdoor activity modification thresholds. We find regional patterns affecting WBGT, suggesting accurately projecting WBGT demands a localized approach. Results show increased frequency of hours at high WBGT and, using U.S. military heat thresholds, we estimate impacts to future outdoor labor. By mid-century, some locations are projected to average 20 or more days each summer when outdoor labor will be significantly impacted. The method’s fine spatiotemporal resolution enables detailed analysis of WBGT projections, making it useful applied at specific locations of interest.