Bryan Chong,Jayanth Jayabaskaran,Silingga Metta Jauhari,Siew Pang Chan,Rachel Goh,Martin Tze Wah Kueh,Henry Li,Yip Han Chin,Gwyneth Kong,Vickram Vijay Anand,Jiong-Wei Wang,Mark Muthiah,Vardhmaan Jain,Anurag Mehta,Shir Lynn Lim,Roger Foo,Gemma A Figtree,Stephen J Nicholls,Mamas A Mamas,James L Januzzi,Nicholas W S Chew,A Mark Richards,Mark Y Chan
{"title":"Global burden of cardiovascular diseases: projections from 2025 to 2050.","authors":"Bryan Chong,Jayanth Jayabaskaran,Silingga Metta Jauhari,Siew Pang Chan,Rachel Goh,Martin Tze Wah Kueh,Henry Li,Yip Han Chin,Gwyneth Kong,Vickram Vijay Anand,Jiong-Wei Wang,Mark Muthiah,Vardhmaan Jain,Anurag Mehta,Shir Lynn Lim,Roger Foo,Gemma A Figtree,Stephen J Nicholls,Mamas A Mamas,James L Januzzi,Nicholas W S Chew,A Mark Richards,Mark Y Chan","doi":"10.1093/eurjpc/zwae281","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"AIMS\r\nThe prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050.\r\n\r\nMETHODS AND RESULTS\r\nUsing historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population).\r\n\r\nCONCLUSION\r\nIn the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases.\r\n\r\nREGISTRATION\r\nNot applicable.","PeriodicalId":12051,"journal":{"name":"European journal of preventive cardiology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European journal of preventive cardiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwae281","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
AIMS
The prediction of future trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and their risk factors can assist policy-makers in healthcare planning. This study aims to project geospatial trends in CVDs and their underlying risk factors from 2025 to 2050.
METHODS AND RESULTS
Using historical data on mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, encompassing the period of 1990 to 2019, Poisson regression was performed to model mortality and DALYs associated with CVD and its associated risk factors from 2025 to 2050. Subgroup analysis was based on GBD super-regions. Between 2025 and 2050, a 90.0% increase in cardiovascular prevalence, 73.4% increase in crude mortality, and 54.7% increase in crude DALYs are projected, with an expected 35.6 million cardiovascular deaths in 2050 (from 20.5 million in 2025). However, age-standardized cardiovascular prevalence will be relatively constant (-3.6%), with decreasing age-standardized mortality (-30.5%) and age-standardized DALYs (-29.6%). In 2050, ischaemic heart disease will remain the leading cause of cardiovascular deaths (20 million deaths) while high systolic blood pressure will be the main cardiovascular risk factor driving mortality (18.9 million deaths). Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region is set to incur the highest age-standardized cardiovascular mortality rate in 2050 (305 deaths per 100 000 population).
CONCLUSION
In the coming decades, the relatively constant age-standardized prevalence of global CVD suggests that the net effect of summative preventative efforts will likely continue to be unchanged. The fall in age-standardized cardiovascular mortality reflects the improvement in medical care following diagnosis. However, future healthcare systems can expect a rapid rise in crude cardiovascular mortality, driven by the ageing global populace. The continued rise in CVD burden will largely be attributed to atherosclerotic diseases.
REGISTRATION
Not applicable.
期刊介绍:
European Journal of Preventive Cardiology (EJPC) is an official journal of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and the European Association of Preventive Cardiology (EAPC). The journal covers a wide range of scientific, clinical, and public health disciplines related to cardiovascular disease prevention, risk factor management, cardiovascular rehabilitation, population science and public health, and exercise physiology. The categories covered by the journal include classical risk factors and treatment, lifestyle risk factors, non-modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, cardiovascular conditions, concomitant pathological conditions, sport cardiology, diagnostic tests, care settings, epidemiology, pharmacology and pharmacotherapy, machine learning, and artificial intelligence.