Reading the Tea Leaves: Question Wording and Public Support for the Tea Party Movement

Abstract

The emergence of the Tea Party in 2009 was a pivotal moment in American politics signaling a right-ward shift among Republican Party primary voters that would later help Donald J. Trump secure the Republican nomination for president in 2016. This article looks back in time analyzing public opinion data concerning the Tea Party movement from 2010 to 2011 examining how opinions changed over time. Specifically, two types of questions are used to plot views of the Tea Party over time: those gauging the favorability of, and support for, the movement. Findings show a decline in Tea Party support over time, with support peaking in November of 2010. This study also examines the influence of question wording on opinions of the Tea Party finding that support or favorability toward the Tea Party movement can vary significantly, depending on the options given to respondents. The implications of these results for the Tea Party movement, and the measurement of public opinion, are also explored.