How does high-speed rail affect intercity elderly migration? Evidence from China

IF 4.1 2区 工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS Research in Transportation Business and Management Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI:10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101200
Guowei Lyu , Wangyuqing Ma , Jiaoe Wang , Jingjuan Jiao
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Abstract

The rapid aging of the population poses significant challenges for social structures and economic development, with migration emerging as a key strategy for elderly individuals to enhance their social networks, quality of life, and overall well-being. This study delves into the role of high-speed rail (HSR) in facilitating intercity migration among the elderly in China, a country experiencing a pronounced demographic shift with a burgeoning aging population. By employing a Poisson regression model on unbalanced panel data from 2008 to 2017, this paper assesses the aggregate and heterogeneous effects of HSR on elderly migration, considering various migration purposes and the mediating effects of younger generation migration. The study uncovers that elderly migration is predominantly towards economically vibrant cities, with HSR significantly influencing migration patterns by improving accessibility and connectivity. The analysis reveals that the elderly migration along with their family is more influenced by accessibility improvements, while the elderly migration for work is more responsive to enhanced connectivity provided by HSR. Furthermore, the migration of younger generations moderates the positive impact of HSR on elderly migration, particularly for family and work-related migration, but not for healthcare-related migration. The insights from this study emphasize the importance of policies that encourage inter-generational migration, allowing younger and elderly family members to move together, which can help maintain family unity and reduce the social and economic pressures on cities that receive migrants. Moreover, the study advises cautious development of HSR in less prosperous areas to avoid exacerbating population loss and regional decline.

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高铁如何影响老年人的城际迁移?来自中国的证据
人口的快速老龄化给社会结构和经济发展带来了巨大挑战,而人口迁移则成为老年人增强社交网络、提高生活质量和整体福祉的重要策略。中国正经历着明显的人口结构转型,老龄化人口急剧增加,本研究探讨了高铁在促进中国老年人城际迁移中的作用。通过对 2008 年至 2017 年的非平衡面板数据采用泊松回归模型,本文评估了高铁对老年人迁移的总体效应和异质性效应,同时考虑了各种迁移目的以及年轻一代迁移的中介效应。研究发现,老年人主要向经济活跃的城市迁移,高铁通过改善可达性和连通性对迁移模式产生了显著影响。分析表明,老年人举家迁徙受交通便利性改善的影响更大,而老年人因工作迁徙对高铁提供的更强连接性的反应更大。此外,年轻一代的迁移也会缓和高铁对老年人迁移的积极影响,尤其是与家庭和工作相关的迁移,但与医疗保健相关的迁移则不然。本研究的启示强调了鼓励代际迁移的政策的重要性,即允许年轻家庭成员和老年家庭成员一起迁移,这有助于维护家庭团结,减轻移民城市的社会和经济压力。此外,本研究还建议在欠发达地区谨慎发展高铁,以避免加剧人口流失和地区衰退。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
175
期刊介绍: Research in Transportation Business & Management (RTBM) will publish research on international aspects of transport management such as business strategy, communication, sustainability, finance, human resource management, law, logistics, marketing, franchising, privatisation and commercialisation. Research in Transportation Business & Management welcomes proposals for themed volumes from scholars in management, in relation to all modes of transport. Issues should be cross-disciplinary for one mode or single-disciplinary for all modes. We are keen to receive proposals that combine and integrate theories and concepts that are taken from or can be traced to origins in different disciplines or lessons learned from different modes and approaches to the topic. By facilitating the development of interdisciplinary or intermodal concepts, theories and ideas, and by synthesizing these for the journal''s audience, we seek to contribute to both scholarly advancement of knowledge and the state of managerial practice. Potential volume themes include: -Sustainability and Transportation Management- Transport Management and the Reduction of Transport''s Carbon Footprint- Marketing Transport/Branding Transportation- Benchmarking, Performance Measurement and Best Practices in Transport Operations- Franchising, Concessions and Alternate Governance Mechanisms for Transport Organisations- Logistics and the Integration of Transportation into Freight Supply Chains- Risk Management (or Asset Management or Transportation Finance or ...): Lessons from Multiple Modes- Engaging the Stakeholder in Transportation Governance- Reliability in the Freight Sector
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