Research in Transportation Business and Management最新文献

Air-rail intermodal collaborative decision making for aircraft recovery from airport station disruption 机场站中断后飞机恢复的空铁联运协作决策

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101240

Fang Sun , Shenglu Wang , Ziyue Hu , Yu Zhang , Lunlong Zhong

During airport disruptions caused by capacity shortages, it is crucial for airlines to have an effective recovery plan to minimize losses and prevent the spread of disruptions and delays. This study proposes an air-rail intermodal Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) approach, which recommends incorporating High-Speed Railway (HSR) transportation into the management of aircraft recovery from airport station disruptions. The structural properties of the proposed model indicate employing a Lagrangian relaxation with subgradient methods to effectively obtain near-optimal solutions. A framework for developing Lagrangian heuristics (heuristics based on Lagrangian relaxation and sub-gradient optimization) is proposed to obtain solutions. Additionally, the study proposes a modified aircraft recovery model considering the downstream effects of flight delays and cancellations during the airport disruption recovery period and introduces slack variables to linearize the model. The computational experiments conducted in this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed air-rail intermodal strategy for managing airport disruptions. Experiments conducted on large-scale datasets demonstrate that the Lagrangian Relaxation method outperforms both the Benders method and the Genetic Algorithm in terms of both computational speed and solution quality.

This research provides valuable insights into the management of airport disruptions and offers practical solutions for airlines to mitigate the impact of capacity shortages.

在机场因运力不足而中断时，航空公司必须制定有效的恢复计划，以最大限度地减少损失，并防止中断和延误的蔓延。本研究提出了一种空铁联运协同决策（CDM）方法，建议将高速铁路（HSR）运输纳入飞机从机场站中断中恢复的管理中。拟议模型的结构特性表明，采用拉格朗日松弛法和次梯度法可有效获得近似最优解。研究提出了一个开发拉格朗日启发式方法（基于拉格朗日松弛和子梯度优化的启发式方法）的框架，以获得解决方案。此外，该研究还提出了一个修改后的飞机恢复模型，考虑到了机场中断恢复期间航班延误和取消的下游影响，并引入了松弛变量使模型线性化。本研究中进行的计算实验证明了所提出的空铁联运策略在管理机场中断方面的有效性。在大规模数据集上进行的实验表明，拉格朗日松弛法在计算速度和解决方案质量方面均优于本德斯法和遗传算法。这项研究为机场中断管理提供了宝贵的见解，并为航空公司减轻运力短缺的影响提供了实用的解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Promoting sustainable usage behavior in the sharing economy business model: A study based on bike-sharing 促进共享经济商业模式中的可持续使用行为：基于共享单车的研究

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101241

Lan Gao , Jing Wang , Xia Wu

Exiting research has noted the significance of sharing economy business model, while insufficient attention has been paid to understand the user's sustainable usage behavior in it. To narrow the research gap and enrich literature, based on the bike-sharing context, this study explores user's sustainable usage behavior in the bike-sharing economy business model. On the basis of Push-Pull-Mooring (PPM) model and the survey data collected from 1029 shared bike users in China, we find that user's sustainable intention of using shared bike can be influenced by push, pull and mooring factors. Specifically, push (e.g., social norm and government and enterprise regulation) and pull (e.g., moral norm and perceived behavioral control) factors significantly promote sustainable usage intention, while mooring factor (e.g., inertia) significantly inhibit it. Meanwhile, mooring factor also weakens the positive influence of push and pull factor on sustainable usage intention. Furthermore, this research further reveals that there is a disparity between sustainable intention and sustainable behavior of using shared bike and uncovers that the “intention-behavior” discrepancy can be bridged by providing punitive measures. Additionally, this research uncovers that user's gender, age and monthly income do not significantly promote sustainable usage intention and behavior, user's educational level significantly promotes sustainable usage intention while not for sustainable usage behavior, and the frequency of using shared bike significantly promotes both sustainable usage intention and behavior. This research provides recommendations for government and enterprise to promote sustainable usage behavior in the bike-sharing context.

现有研究已注意到共享经济商业模式的重要性，但对其中用户的可持续使用行为的了解还不够。为了缩小研究差距，丰富文献资料，本研究基于共享单车的背景，探讨了共享经济商业模式下用户的可持续使用行为。在推拉停泊（PPM）模型的基础上，通过对中国 1029 名共享单车用户的调查数据，我们发现用户使用共享单车的可持续意向会受到推、拉和停泊因素的影响。具体来说，推力因素（如社会规范和政府及企业监管）和拉力因素（如道德规范和感知行为控制）显著促进可持续使用意向，而停泊因素（如惰性）则显著抑制可持续使用意向。同时，停泊因素也削弱了推力和拉力因素对可持续使用意向的积极影响。此外，本研究进一步揭示了使用共享单车的可持续意向与可持续行为之间存在差异，并发现可以通过提供惩罚性措施来弥合 "意向-行为 "差异。此外，本研究还发现，用户的性别、年龄和月收入对可持续使用意向和行为没有显著促进作用；用户的受教育程度对可持续使用意向有显著促进作用，但对可持续使用行为没有显著促进作用；使用共享单车的频率对可持续使用意向和行为都有显著促进作用。本研究为政府和企业在共享单车环境下促进可持续使用行为提供了建议。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of intermodal transport chain: Case of importing tires through a China-Balkans routes 多式联运链评估：通过中国-巴尔干航线进口轮胎的案例

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101242

Snežana Tadić , Mladen Krstić , Biljana Mićić

Within the context of global trade, logistics chains face the complex task of bridging significant geographic distances while simultaneously striving to increase their efficiency and sustainability. A significant portion of global logistics chains relies on maritime transport in the initial phase, followed by road, rail, or river transport in the subsequent continental phase. Road transport, however, is associated with various ecological and operational drawbacks. In contrast, intermodal transport (IT) provides an efficient solution by integrating multiple modes of transportation. The key challenge of IT applications remains the determination of the best combination of transport modes, technologies, and routes. Consequently, this paper aims to identify the most favorable alternative to the intermodal transport chain (ITC) for the import of tires from China to Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Since selecting the most favorable alternative to the ITC requires an analysis of conflicting objectives and criteria, the use of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) becomes essential in addressing this challenge. The paper presents a new MCDM model that combines the fuzzy DELPHI analytical hierarchy process (fuzzy DAHP) and the fuzzy Axial-Distance-based Aggregated Measurement (fuzzy ADAM) methods. The applicability and effectiveness of the model were demonstrated and confirmed by a case study. The results indicate that the best variants are those that combine maritime, rail, and road transportation through the Port of Koper (with a ranking value of 0.339) and Rijeka (0.289), followed by the variants that combine maritime and road transportation through the same ports (0.241 and 0.222, respectively). The rest of the variants have significantly lower performances.

在全球贸易背景下，物流链面临着跨越遥远地理距离的复杂任务，同时还要努力提高效率和可持续性。全球物流链的很大一部分在初始阶段依赖海运，随后在大陆阶段依赖公路、铁路或内河运输。然而，公路运输存在各种生态和运营弊端。相比之下，多式联运（IT）通过整合多种运输方式提供了一种高效的解决方案。信息技术应用的主要挑战仍然是确定运输方式、技术和路线的最佳组合。因此，本文旨在确定从中国向波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那（B&H）进口轮胎的多式联运链（ITC）的最有利替代方案。由于选择最有利的 ITC 替代方案需要对相互冲突的目标和标准进行分析，因此使用多标准决策（MCDM）对解决这一难题至关重要。本文介绍了一种新的 MCDM 模型，该模型结合了模糊 DELPHI 层次分析法（模糊 DAHP）和基于轴向距离的模糊聚合测量法（模糊 ADAM）。案例研究证明并证实了该模型的适用性和有效性。结果表明，通过科佩尔港（排名值为 0.339）和里耶卡港（0.289）将海运、铁路和公路运输结合起来的方案是最佳方案，其次是通过相同港口将海运和公路运输结合起来的方案（分别为 0.241 和 0.222）。其余变式的性能明显较低。

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引用次数: 0

Can high-speed rail promote regional technological innovation? An explanation based on city network centrality 高速铁路能否促进区域技术创新？基于城市网络中心性的解释

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101245

Ruofei Lin , Chenghan Li , Yuxin Qiu , Junpei Huang , Xinchen Lin

The relationship between high-speed railway and technological innovation has attracted wide interest of scholars, but there are few studies pay attention to the role of urban status in the impact of high-speed rail on innovation from the perspective of urban development. In this paper, we construct the theoretical framework of high-speed railway, city network centrality and regional technology innovation, and explore the influence mechanism of high-speed railway on regional technological innovation. Referring to the concept of global urban interlocking network model in Taylor and Derudder (2015), we measure the city network centrality of China's prefecture-level administrative regions based on advanced producer services (APS), and empirically test the mediating effect of city network centrality in high-speed rail's influence on regional technological innovation using prefecture-level data in China from 2007 to 2016. The results suggest that the city network centrality is a mechanism by which high-speed railway affects regional technological innovation. The construction of high-speed railway promotes regional technological innovation by improving the city network centrality. In addition, the promotion of high-speed railway on technological innovation capability varies with urban features, where the small-scale and relatively backward cities gain more benefits from the construction of high-speed railway.

高速铁路与技术创新的关系引起了学者们的广泛关注，但很少有研究从城市发展的角度关注城市地位在高速铁路对创新影响中的作用。本文构建了高速铁路、城市网络中心性与区域技术创新的理论框架，探讨了高速铁路对区域技术创新的影响机制。参照Taylor和Derudder（2015）的全球城市交错网络模型概念，基于先进生产者服务（APS）测度中国地级行政区的城市网络中心度，并利用2007-2016年中国地级行政区数据实证检验了城市网络中心度在高铁影响区域技术创新中的中介效应。结果表明，城市网络中心性是高速铁路影响区域技术创新的一种机制。高速铁路的建设通过提高城市网络中心性来促进区域技术创新。此外，高速铁路对技术创新能力的促进作用因城市特征而异，规模小、相对落后的城市从高速铁路建设中获益更多。

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引用次数: 0

Do Chilean cities have the right set of public transport modes? 智利城市的公共交通模式是否合理？

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101244

Paul Basnak, Ricardo Giesen, Juan Carlos Muñoz

Although there are various studies that evaluate the optimal design of public transport systems in radial structures, there are few that analyse which urban characteristics are relevant to recommend different public transport modes, particularly in small towns that lack the resources needed for such studies. Based on results from social cost minimization models, we classify small and medium-sized cities of Chile into three categories according to population, density, location of the city centre, and topography. For smaller towns (type A) subsidies to regular public transport seem unnecessary. In intermediate cities (type B) our models recommend promoting public transport services through shared taxis, a typical transport mode in Chilean cities in which a taxi carries up to 4 passengers on fixed routes or zones. Finally, in the largest cities in the sample (type C), it is recommended to subsidize the operation of bus services that produce less externalities than shared taxis, particularly congestion in the city centre. The methodology used can be extended to more complex structures and incorporate data from other countries, in order to formulate useful public policies in diverse contexts, in particular to address the lack of accessibility for vulnerable groups and zones. That said, transitions between categories are challenging for the governance of public transport systems and should be considered in further studies.

虽然有各种研究对放射状结构中公共交通系统的优化设计进行了评估，但很少有研究分析哪些城市特征与推荐不同的公共交通模式相关，尤其是在缺乏此类研究所需资源的小城镇。根据社会成本最小化模型的结果，我们按照人口、密度、市中心位置和地形将智利的中小城市分为三类。对于较小的城市（A 类），似乎没有必要为常规公共交通提供补贴。在中等城市（B 类），我们的模型建议通过共享出租车推广公共交通服务，共享出租车是智利城市的一种典型交通模式，一辆出租车最多可在固定路线或区域内搭载 4 名乘客。最后，在样本中最大的城市（C 类），我们建议对公交服务的运营进行补贴，因为公交服务产生的外部效应比共享出租车要小，尤其是在市中心的拥堵问题上。所使用的方法可以扩展到更复杂的结构，并纳入其他国家的数据，以便在不同情况下制定有用的公共政策，特别是解决弱势群体和地区缺乏无障碍环境的问题。尽管如此，不同类别之间的过渡对公共交通系统的管理也具有挑战性，应在进一步的研究中加以考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Optimized vehicle exploitation period decision in cold-chain logistics companies 冷链物流公司优化车辆使用期决策

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101235

Yu-Tsung Huang , Chun-Ting Chou , Chih-Hao Wen , Mu-Chen Chen

Cold-chain logistics gained great attention during COVID-19 pandemic due to the demand for temperature-controlled home delivery and vaccine distribution. Refrigerated trucks used for cold-chain logistics need additional equipment such as insulated compartments and refrigeration units, resulting in high life cycle costs. As cold-chain logistics companies require an evaluation model when making vehicle replacement decisions, this study proposes a four-phase reference model including (1) Data collection and compilation, (2) Life cycle maintenance and repairment (M&R) cost, (3) Residual value prediction model, and (4) Optimal replacement model. The reference model applies methods including expert interviews, artificial neural networks, and dynamic programming. We present a case study of an international cold-chain logistics company determining the optimal replacement year for refrigerated trucks. Based on scenario analysis, findings show the optimal vehicle replacement year varies depending on operational environments and service requirements. The cold-chain logistics company can use these findings to establish its preventive M&R policy for refrigerated trucks, as well as identify the optimal year for replacement. The proposed reference model can serve as a guideline for cold-chain logistics companies' fleet management.

在 COVID-19 大流行期间，由于对温控送货上门和疫苗配送的需求，冷链物流受到极大关注。用于冷链物流的冷藏车需要额外的设备，如隔热车厢和制冷装置，因此生命周期成本较高。鉴于冷链物流公司在做出车辆更换决策时需要一个评估模型，本研究提出了一个四阶段参考模型，包括（1）数据收集和汇编；（2）生命周期维护和修理（M&R）成本；（3）剩余价值预测模型；（4）最佳更换模型。参考模型采用的方法包括专家访谈、人工神经网络和动态编程。我们介绍了一个国际冷链物流公司确定冷藏车最佳更换年份的案例研究。基于情景分析，研究结果表明最佳车辆更换年份因运营环境和服务要求而异。冷链物流公司可以利用这些发现来制定冷藏车的预防性维护和修理政策，并确定最佳更换年份。所提出的参考模型可作为冷链物流公司车队管理的指南。

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引用次数: 0

Who is the CPO? Exploring the role of the Charge Point Operator in electrified logistics systems 谁是 CPO？探索充电桩运营商在电气化物流系统中的作用

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101239

Henrik Gillström, Uni Sallnäs, My Jobrant

Electrification of freight transport is a way to heavily reduce the freight sector's environmental impact. However, charging of electric trucks is a major challenge, and charge point operator (CPO) thereby become crucial in electrified logistics systems. This study explored different actors in the position of CPO, what is required, and what roles they take. An embedded case study was used, based on interviews with 20 respondents. The results show that a wide variety of actors can position themselves as CPO and in different charging set-ups, where, for example, logistics service providers (LSPs) could utilize private charging at terminal, while also offer public charging along the road network. Other actors expected to take a role as CPO include shipper, fuel stations, energy companies, and truck manufacturers. In terms of resources, activities, and interaction for CPOs, these coincided to a large extent among actors, such as necessary possession of charging hardware and software, and necessary interaction power grid actors. Furthermore, this study suggests five distinctive roles of CPOs that actors take: gatekeeper, accessory provider, contributor, facilitator, and orchestrator. By focusing on the unexplored role of CPO, this study has important implications for both research and practice.

货运电气化是大幅减少货运部门对环境影响的一种方式。然而，电动卡车充电是一项重大挑战，因此充电点操作员（CPO）在电气化物流系统中至关重要。本研究探讨了 CPO 这一职位的不同参与者、所需条件以及他们所扮演的角色。在对 20 名受访者进行访谈的基础上，采用了嵌入式案例研究。结果表明，各种参与者都可以将自己定位为 CPO，并采用不同的充电设置，例如，物流服务提供商（LSP）可以在终端使用私人充电，同时也可以沿公路网络提供公共充电。其他有望成为 CPO 的参与者包括托运人、加油站、能源公司和卡车制造商。就 CPO 的资源、活动和互动而言，这些在很大程度上在参与者之间是一致的，例如拥有必要的充电硬件和软件，以及与电网参与者进行必要的互动。此外，本研究还提出了五种不同的 CPO 角色：看门人、配件提供者、贡献者、促进者和协调者。通过关注 CPO 这一尚未探索的角色，本研究对研究和实践都具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Comparative study on urban freight transport sustainability initiatives: Two cases from Sweden 城市货运可持续性倡议比较研究：瑞典的两个案例

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101238

Alena Brettmo, Michael Browne

A wide range of initiatives has been proposed and tested in different cities around the world with the common goal of making urban freight more sustainable. This paper studies two cases of consolidation initiatives in which the property owners play an important role together with other stakeholders. Empirical material for the cases was collected and analysed using an Actors-Resources-Activities (ARA) model within an Industrial Network Approach (INA). The study describes the main stakeholders (actors) of these two cases, their organisation and operations, resources and activities, the inter-organisational relationships. The purpose of the analysis was to understand how resource constellation and activity patterns in the cases get affected and change when new consolidation schemes are implemented. The analysis of the schemes showed that the resistance to change (referred as heaviness of the existing resources and developed interdependencies of activities) indicates the points in the network where changes are difficult to realise. The research demonstrates that property owners and policymakers could be the outside influencers that could help to overcome these factors – the heaviness of the resources and interdependencies of activities – that exist in business network of urban goods deliveries and thereby facilitate transition to more sustainable urban freight.

世界各地的不同城市已经提出并测试了一系列广泛的倡议，其共同目标是使城市货运更具可持续性。本文研究了两个整合倡议案例，在这两个案例中，业主与其他利益相关者一起发挥了重要作用。本文采用工业网络方法（INA）中的 "行动者-资源-活动"（ARA）模型，收集并分析了这些案例的经验材料。研究描述了这两个案例的主要利益相关者（行动者）、其组织和运作、资源和活动以及组织间关系。分析的目的是了解在实施新的合并计划时，案例中的资源组合和活动模式是如何受到影响和发生变化的。对这些计划的分析表明，变革的阻力（指现有资源的沉重程度和活动之间形成的相互依赖关系）表明了网络中难以实现变革的点。研究表明，业主和政策制定者可以成为外部影响者，帮助克服城市货物运输商业网络中存在的这些因素（资源繁重和活动相互依存），从而促进向更可持续的城市货运过渡。

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引用次数: 0

A periodical decomposition-based two-stage NARX model for demand prediction of bike-sharing travel in hotspot areas 基于周期分解的两阶段 NARX 模型用于热点地区共享单车出行需求预测

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101237

Chao Sun , Jian Lu

Future free-floating bike-sharing travel demand forecasting systems can mitigate dispatch failures. Typically, time series forecasts for traffic demand and flow are computed using a global study area, which does not account for spatial heterogeneity. To address this, a periodical decomposition-based two-stage NARX (Nonlinear Auto Regressive with Exogenous Inputs) model is developed to accurately predict free-floating bike-sharing travel demand (BSTD) for individual hotspot areas. Kernel density analysis-based hotspot detection is employed to divide the study area into basic predicting units, thereby enhancing efficiency and guidance quality. Weather factors with poor predictability or low correlation with BSTD are further eliminated using rescaled range and gray correlation methods. Based on periodic decomposition results, an improved two-stage NARX model is constructed for BSTD prediction in multiple important steps. A random selection of 50 hotspot areas in Beijing was performed for methodology verification, with hotspots numbered and selected using a random number generator. Results indicate that the periodical decomposition-based NARX model significantly improves BSTD prediction accuracy in hotspot areas compared to typical time series forecasting methods. The model demonstrates higher R-values (correlation between targets and outputs) and lower MSEs (Mean Squared Errors). For instance, the average MSE of the periodical decomposition-based two-stage NARX model is 20.225, compared to ARIMA (26.151), NARX (28.748), ARIMA (32.854), and NAR (41.666), highlighting superior robustness and effectiveness across different hotspot types and locations. These findings enhance understanding of the spatial-temporal variation of BSTD and provide a foundation for optimizing time series forecasting within specific areas.

未来的自由浮动共享单车出行需求预测系统可以减少调度故障。通常情况下，交通需求和流量的时间序列预测是通过全球研究区域来计算的，这并不考虑空间异质性。为解决这一问题，我们开发了一个基于周期分解的两阶段 NARX（带外生输入的非线性自回归）模型，以准确预测单个热点区域的自由浮动共享单车出行需求（BSTD）。采用基于核密度分析的热点检测，将研究区域划分为基本预测单元，从而提高效率和指导质量。采用重标定范围法和灰色关联法进一步剔除预测性差或与 BSTD 相关性低的天气因素。根据周期性分解结果，分多个重要步骤构建了用于 BSTD 预测的改进型两阶段 NARX 模型。在北京随机选择了 50 个热点区域进行方法验证，使用随机数发生器对热点区域进行编号和选择。结果表明，与典型的时间序列预测方法相比，基于周期分解的 NARX 模型显著提高了热点地区的 BSTD 预测精度。该模型显示出更高的 R 值（目标与输出之间的相关性）和更低的 MSE（平均平方误差）。例如，基于周期分解的两阶段 NARX 模型的平均 MSE 值为 20.225，而 ARIMA（26.151）、NARX（28.748）、ARIMA（32.854）和 NAR（41.666）的平均 MSE 值分别为 26.151、28.748、32.854 和 41.666。这些发现加深了对 BSTD 时空变化的理解，为优化特定地区的时间序列预测奠定了基础。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of Covid-19 pandemic restrictions on zonal transit demand: Evidence from a low-density city Covid-19 大流行限制对分区交通需求的影响：来自低密度城市的证据

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management

Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101234

Mysore Narasimhamurthy Sharath , Phani Kumar Patnala , Babak Mehran , Jonathan Regehr

Studies investigating the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on transit ridership of low-density cities are scarce. There exist three unanswered questions in the context of low-density cities: (i) how much patronage losses can be attributed to pandemic restrictions? (ii) which land use zones are more vulnerable to demand declines? and (iii) what factors contribute to zonal vulnerability? The present study intends to answer these questions by investigating zonal level boardings of bus transit system in the city of Winnipeg, Canada. For this purpose, two multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models were developed: (i) a time-series MARS model based on historical transit demand patterns at zonal level, and (ii) a regressive MARS model to predict demand decline as a function of land use, socio-demographic, and zonal-level variables. The magnitude of the demand decline was found to be highest in April 2020, with a total loss of 1.74 million boardings attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Among 840 zones, transit usage in commercial (50 %–60 % reduction), education (80 % reduction), and recreational (60 %–80 % reduction) zones are most affected by pandemic restrictions. The findings are valuable for transit officials of low-density cities to effectively plan response strategies for long-term operational disruptions due to pandemic situations.

调查 COVID-19 大流行对低密度城市交通乘客影响的研究很少。就低密度城市而言，有三个问题尚未解决：(i) 大流行限制会导致多少乘客量减少？(ii) 哪些土地使用区域更容易受到需求下降的影响？ (iii) 哪些因素导致了区域脆弱性？本研究旨在通过调查加拿大温尼伯市公交系统的分区乘客人数来回答这些问题。为此，研究人员建立了两个多元自适应回归样条（MARS）模型：(i) 基于区级公交需求历史模式的时间序列 MARS 模型；(ii) 根据土地利用、社会人口和区级变量预测需求下降的回归 MARS 模型。结果发现，2020 年 4 月的需求下降幅度最大，COVID-19 大流行共造成 174 万人次的损失。在 840 个区域中，商业区（减少 50%-60%）、教育区（减少 80%）和娱乐区（减少 60%-80%）的公交使用量受大流行病限制的影响最大。研究结果对于低密度城市的公交官员有效规划应对策略，以应对大流行导致的长期运营中断具有重要价值。

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引用次数: 0