The ecological and socioeconomic implications of future total allowable catch decisions and illegal fishing scenarios for South Africa’s West Coast rock lobster fishery
{"title":"The ecological and socioeconomic implications of future total allowable catch decisions and illegal fishing scenarios for South Africa’s West Coast rock lobster fishery","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.marpol.2024.106399","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The West Coast rock lobster fishery, vital to South Africa, is in a critical state with only 1.1 % of its original exploitable biomass remaining. This study evaluates effects of various total allowable catch (TAC) decisions on biomass and economic performance, taking illegal fishing, currently a serious problem, into account. TAC options included two sustainable options and an option (1500 mt), which could only be feasible if illegal fishing is stopped. Biomass projections, from 2022 to 2050, are modelled from a length-based model incorporating a Beverton and Holt stock-recruit relationship. The impacts of different TAC decisions on biomass, net seasonal incomes (NSI) and net present value (NPV) are assessed. Sensitivity to different discount rates is also considered. Biomass projections suggest an imminent collapse if legal fishing limits are set too high or if IUU fishing is not substantially reduced. The NPVs for the entire sectors are found to be highest under a 1500 mt TAC but unless accompanied by a halt to IUU fishing, would result in unsustainable catch rates and rapidly declining NSI in areas where many quota holders are located. Under the 550 mt TAC scenario, there is less risk of biomass declines but the quotas for many stakeholders would be economically unviable. Lower TAC options are forecast to lead to the functional exclusion of many rights holders and reduction in employment. The most secure and economically successful strategy is considered to be adjusting annual TACs in response to the effectiveness of controlling IUU fishing and changes in biomass.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48427,"journal":{"name":"Marine Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X2400397X/pdfft?md5=9c10294ef55b031d58f645ca1ea5819e&pid=1-s2.0-S0308597X2400397X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Marine Policy","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X2400397X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The West Coast rock lobster fishery, vital to South Africa, is in a critical state with only 1.1 % of its original exploitable biomass remaining. This study evaluates effects of various total allowable catch (TAC) decisions on biomass and economic performance, taking illegal fishing, currently a serious problem, into account. TAC options included two sustainable options and an option (1500 mt), which could only be feasible if illegal fishing is stopped. Biomass projections, from 2022 to 2050, are modelled from a length-based model incorporating a Beverton and Holt stock-recruit relationship. The impacts of different TAC decisions on biomass, net seasonal incomes (NSI) and net present value (NPV) are assessed. Sensitivity to different discount rates is also considered. Biomass projections suggest an imminent collapse if legal fishing limits are set too high or if IUU fishing is not substantially reduced. The NPVs for the entire sectors are found to be highest under a 1500 mt TAC but unless accompanied by a halt to IUU fishing, would result in unsustainable catch rates and rapidly declining NSI in areas where many quota holders are located. Under the 550 mt TAC scenario, there is less risk of biomass declines but the quotas for many stakeholders would be economically unviable. Lower TAC options are forecast to lead to the functional exclusion of many rights holders and reduction in employment. The most secure and economically successful strategy is considered to be adjusting annual TACs in response to the effectiveness of controlling IUU fishing and changes in biomass.
期刊介绍:
Marine Policy is the leading journal of ocean policy studies. It offers researchers, analysts and policy makers a unique combination of analyses in the principal social science disciplines relevant to the formulation of marine policy. Major articles are contributed by specialists in marine affairs, including marine economists and marine resource managers, political scientists, marine scientists, international lawyers, geographers and anthropologists. Drawing on their expertise and research, the journal covers: international, regional and national marine policies; institutional arrangements for the management and regulation of marine activities, including fisheries and shipping; conflict resolution; marine pollution and environment; conservation and use of marine resources. Regular features of Marine Policy include research reports, conference reports and reports on current developments to keep readers up-to-date with the latest developments and research in ocean affairs.