Individualized HCC surveillance using risk stratification scores in advanced fibrosis and cirrhotic HCV patients who achieved SVR: Prospective study.

Abstract

Background: Several HCC risk stratification scores were developed; however, none has been prospectively validated. The primary aim is to validate the clinical utility of six HCC risk scores in large prospective study of F3-4 patients achieving SVR following DAAs according to EASL guidelines. The secondary aim is to explore whether individualized risk stratification improves detection of HCC at early stages amenable to curative treatment.

Methods: This prospective study included two cohorts: Egyptian Liver Research Institute and Hospital (ELRIAH) cohort of 463 chronic HCV patients with advanced liver disease (F3 and F4) achieved SVR with a follow-up every 6 months according to EASL guidelines using 6 simple HCC risk scores and Tanta cohort of 492 comparable patients where individualized surveillance intervals were tailored based on HCC risk assessments using GES score as follows: low-risk patients were followed yearly, intermediate-risk every 6 months and high-risk every 2-3 months.

Results: All scores, except Watanabe post, successfully stratified patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, with log-rank p-value of 0.001 and Harrell's C ranging from 0.669 to 0.728. Clinical utility of these scores revealed that the highest percentage of patients classified as low risk was 42.5% using the GES, while the lowest was 8.9% using the aMAP. ELRIAH cohort, 25 patients developed HCC with 52% diagnosed at BCLC 0 and A. Tanta cohort, 35 patients developed HCC, with 80% diagnosed at BCLC 0 and A.

Conclusion: Individualized risk stratification using HCC risk scores was associated with improved early-stage detection and receipt of curative treatment.