Evaluation and prediction of water-energy-food nexus under land use changes in the Yellow River Basin, China

IF 3.3 2区 社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Sustainable Futures Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100307
Yikun Zhang , Yongsheng Wang
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Abstract

Scientific understanding of the changes in the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus is crucial for regional development. As the spatial foundation of human activities, land use plays a pivotal role in shaping WEF nexus relations. However, little research has fully explored the impacts of land use changes within the WEF nexus from the human activities perspective. In this study, a novel theoretical framework was developed according to the logic flow “human activities-land use–WEF nexus”. Based on the LUI, the WEF score, and the ICCD between land use changes and WEF, the WEF score of various scenarios was forecasted using the ARIMA model. The findings revealed the various land use structures and LUI among nine provinces, with more intensive land use in lower reaches. During two decades, a discernible increase in both WEF system scores and ICCD was found in YRB. The WEF scores of all provinces had surpassed the threshold of 0.3 for two decades, and Inner Mongolia grew the fastest from 0.223 to 0.524. The ICCD of nine provinces evolved with fluctuations, from an imminent unbalanced or near coordination level in 2000 to primary coordination or moderate coordination level in 2020. The optimal land use scenarios varied across provinces, attributed to factors such as resource and environmental constraints (Qinghai and Sichuan), specialized agriculture or industry (Gansu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia), differentiated zonal characteristics (Shaanxi and Shanxi), and rapid industrialization and urbanization (Henan and Shandong). To attain sustainable development within the YRB, it is imperative to formulate differentiated land use strategies in each province, and universal strategies should also be established for each land use type.
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中国黄河流域土地利用变化下水-能源-粮食关系的评价与预测
科学认识水-能源-粮食(WEF)关系的变化对于地区发展至关重要。作为人类活动的空间基础,土地利用在形成水-能源-粮食关系中发挥着关键作用。然而,很少有研究从人类活动的角度充分探讨 WEF 关系中土地利用变化的影响。本研究根据 "人类活动-土地利用-世界环境基金关系 "的逻辑流建立了一个新的理论框架。根据土地利用变化、世界环境基金得分以及土地利用变化与世界环境基金之间的 ICCD,利用 ARIMA 模型预测了不同情景下的世界环境基金得分。研究结果显示,九个省份的土地利用结构和土地利用水平各不相同,下游地区的土地利用更为密集。在 20 年间,长三角地区的 WEF 系统得分和 ICCD 都出现了明显的增长。二十年来,所有省份的 WEF 分数都超过了 0.3 的临界值,其中内蒙古增长最快,从 0.223 上升到 0.524。9 个省份的 ICCD 出现波动,从 2000 年的濒临不平衡或接近协调水平发展到 2020 年的初级协调或中度协调水平。各省的最佳土地利用方案不尽相同,原因包括资源和环境约束(青海和四川)、特色农业或工业(甘肃、宁夏和内蒙古)、分区特征(陕西和山西)以及快速工业化和城市化(河南和山东)。为了实现长三角地区的可持续发展,各省必须制定差异化的土地利用战略,并为每种土地利用类型制定通用战略。
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来源期刊
Sustainable Futures
Sustainable Futures Social Sciences-Sociology and Political Science
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
1.80%
发文量
34
审稿时长
71 days
期刊介绍: Sustainable Futures: is a journal focused on the intersection of sustainability, environment and technology from various disciplines in social sciences, and their larger implications for corporation, government, education institutions, regions and society both at present and in the future. It provides an advanced platform for studies related to sustainability and sustainable development in society, economics, environment, and culture. The scope of the journal is broad and encourages interdisciplinary research, as well as welcoming theoretical and practical research from all methodological approaches.
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