Fiscal policy and deforestation

Abstract

We investigate the impact of fiscal policy on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon and Atlantic Forests. We first construct a theoretical dynamic model to examine the effects of government spending and tax revenues on the environment. We then run a VAR model to test the implications of fiscal policies on Brazilian deforestation, using data from June 1998 to May 2022. Our results suggest that government expenditures reduce deforestation in both forests. Moreover, deficit-inducing and balanced-budget fiscal policy shocks have dampening effects on deforestation, with the latter being more effective. This is good news for developing countries like Brazil. They can combat deforestation through fiscal policy in a way that doesn't worsen their fiscal situation. Our findings were unaltered when we considered the effects of a simulated fiscal policy based on spending on public goods only (social assistance, science and technology, defense, education, health, national security, and transportation).