Identification of biodiversity hotspots for threatened mammal species under future climate

Abstract

Climate change has led to changes in distribution, movement, and extinction risk for various wildlife species, raising concern among conservation biologists. Therefore, this study aimed to predict suitable habitats that help wildlife managers protect wildlife more effectively. To achieve our aim, we first evaluated the vulnerability of 183 terrestrial mammal species identified in Iran under climate change based on habitat, phenology and physiology, biotic interactions, and national protection status. Then, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential changes in the distribution of vulnerable species due to climate change in the next 70 years under two scenarios: SSP126 and SSP585. In the third step, a framework was employed to identify existing and future hotspots of mammal biodiversity, and the potential changes in these areas for the species were predicted in the next 70 years. The results showed that 69 terrestrial mammals were vulnerable to climate change. Subsequently, 15 species were selected for modeling based on presence records and vulnerability to climate change. The species modeling results showed that 42 % of Iran’s habitats are currently suitable for the studied mammal species. In the future, under both climate scenarios, biodiversity hotspots for these species will be reduced, and approximately 37 % of Iran’s habitats will be suitable for the species. As a result, the current conservation network will have diminished capacity to protect the species from climate change.