Identifying local priorities for adaptation to sea level rise via stated preferences: A choice experiment from two coastal cities in Guatemala

Abstract

Although an international concern and management challenge, sea level rise (SLR) has disparate secondary effects across locations due to variations in coastal topography and human modifications of natural and built environments. Therefore, a one-size-fits-all approach to SLR adaptations is not appropriate if those variations contribute to geographic heterogeneity in household preferences. Using a discrete choice experiment, we compare and contrast household preferences for adaptations to a broad list of secondary SLR effects (i.e., enhanced flooding, beach erosion, salinization of water, and loss of coastal and marine ecosystems) and program management approaches (i.e. municipal, governmental, and interinstitutional) across two SLR-susceptible municipalities, within 8 miles of each other, in southern Guatemala: Iztapa and Puerto San José. We find evidence of common preferences for investing in measures against beach erosion and changes in ecosystem; however, rankings flip across locations for flooding and salinization of water. In Iztapa, the part-worth estimates from mixed-logit models range from US$ 1.21 to US$ 2.99 per attribute per month for flood and ecosystem damage preventions, respectively, exceeding the part-worth estimates from Puerto San José of US$ 0 - US$ 2.51, for protection against salinization of well water and beach erosion. Our findings also indicate that municipal management is the least preferred in both locations. However, whereas households from Puerto San José are indifferent between the national governing body, the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) and interinstitutional management, households from Iztapa prefer the latter and are willing to pay twice as much, a premium of up to US$ 3.63/month, for an interinstitutional committee relative to the municipality. Based on our findings, robust SLR adaptation policies should be nuanced, reflecting location-specific preferences.