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Predicting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on shellfish ecosystem service potential 预测多种压力因素对贝类生态系统服务潜力的累积效应
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107486
Elizabeth Harrison , Fabrice Stephenson , Vera Rullens , Conrad Pilditch , Joanne Ellis
Understanding and anticipating the effects of interacting stressors is critical for the effective management of marine ecosystems and the essential ecosystem services (ES) they provide. A key challenge in integrating cumulative effects and their impacts on ES delivery into spatial tools is to move beyond simple additive stressor interactions in the face of data scarcity, ecosystem complexity and uncertainty. Here we present a novel methodological approach with which to assess the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on the ES potential provided by two estuarine infaunal bivalves (Austrovenus stutchburyi and Paphies australis) which we illustrate in a case study within the Tauranga Harbour, New Zealand. We firstly assess the shift in density distribution and probability of occurrence in response to increasing sediment mud content, harvesting pressure and sea level rise. The single and cumulative effects of these stressors were simulated through species distribution models (SDM). Principle based models were then used to assess the translation of altered environmental conditions and shellfish abundance on the ES potential for food provision, water quality regulation, nitrogen removal and sediment stabilisation. The simulation of single and cumulative stressors at non-lethal levels were found to cause substantial changes to bivalve density and their distribution but could have both positive and negative impacts on ES potential due to shifts in optimal environmental conditions. Increasing the number of stressors delivered a worse outcome in terms of loss of density, particularly for Austrovenus with harvesting pressure being a common driver of decline in high density areas. This effect was similarly reflected in the ES predictions although there were nuances between the species related to habitat association and sensitivity to stressors. For example, the increase of sea level rise and mud had a greater negative impact on Austrovenus. Stressor effects varied spatially with some areas more heavily impacted than others and indicated an overall reduction of high ES areas whilst increasing areas of medium ES potential. This study introduces efficient and accessible means for integrating ES into cumulative effects assessments, the perspective from which renders the results more digestible for management. Using an interactive modelling approach rather than simple additive methods, it provides more robust information, aiding the prevention of ecological surprises. These quantitative spatial predictions will facilitate the identification of vulnerable areas, priority stressors and locations appropriate for restoration and conservation, assisting management in the rehabilitation and protection of bivalve beds and ES.
了解和预测相互作用的压力源的影响对于有效管理海洋生态系统及其提供的基本生态系统服务(ES)至关重要。将累积效应及其对生态系统服务提供的影响整合到空间工具中的一个关键挑战是,在数据稀缺、生态系统复杂和不确定的情况下,如何超越简单的加法压力源相互作用。在此,我们提出了一种新颖的方法,用于评估多种压力因素对两种河口底栖双壳类动物(Austrovenus stutchburyi 和 Paphies australis)所提供的生态系统服务潜力的累积效应。我们首先评估了密度分布和出现概率在沉积物含泥量增加、捕捞压力和海平面上升情况下的变化。我们通过物种分布模型(SDM)模拟了这些压力因素的单一和累积效应。然后使用基于原理的模型来评估环境条件和贝类丰度的变化对食物供应、水质调节、脱氮和沉积物稳定等生态系统服务潜力的影响。在非致命水平上模拟单个和累积压力因素,发现它们会导致双壳贝类密度及其分布发生重大变化,但由于最佳环境条件的变化,它们对环境服务潜力既有积极影响,也有消极影响。压力因素数量的增加会导致密度下降,尤其是对奥氏双壳贝来说,采捕压力是导致高密度区域密度下降的常见原因。这种影响同样反映在生态系统服务预测中,尽管物种之间在生境关联性和对压力因素的敏感性方面存在细微差别。例如,海平面上升和淤泥的增加对奥氏海龟的负面影响更大。压力因素的影响在空间上各不相同,有些区域受到的影响比其他区域严重,这表明高ES区域总体上有所减少,而中等ES潜力的区域有所增加。这项研究引入了将生态系统服务纳入累积效应评估的高效、易用的方法,其视角使评估结果更易于管理。该研究采用交互式建模方法而非简单的相加方法,可提供更可靠的信息,有助于防止出现生态意外。这些定量空间预测将有助于确定脆弱区域、重点压力因素以及适合恢复和保护的地点,从而协助管理部门恢复和保护双壳贝床和 ES。
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引用次数: 0
Robust integrated multi-mode scheduling of flexible loading and unloading operations with maintenance services in a port container terminal 港口集装箱码头灵活装卸作业与维护服务的稳健综合多模式调度
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107481
Behnam Vahdani , D. Veysmoradi , M. Basir Abyaneh , M. Rashedi
This study proposes an unparalleled integrated scheduling model for simultaneous loading, unloading, and maintenance operations in a port container terminal, wherein several heterogeneous handling equipment serve inbound and outbound vessels. In this regard, a multi-mode loading approach and the possibility of multiple allocations are also considered, wherein outbound vessels can be loaded by containers belonging to inbound vessels or the storage area. In addition, the proposed model covers all cases of equality and inequality in the number of inbound and outbound containers. More importantly, a flexible loading approach based on a class-based stowage plan is considered to better utilize equipment and increase the efficiency of the loading process. Additionally, since the timing of maintenance operations undoubtedly affects scheduling and entails miscellaneous uncertainties, a two-phase data-driven method is presented to estimate robust maintenance operation times. The first phase involves a hybrid machine learning strategy that combines the Savitzky–Golay Filter (SGF), the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) fuzzy system, and minibatch gradient descent with regularization, DropRule, and AdaBound (MBGD-RDA) for the estimation of maintenance operation times. The second phase employs the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) technique that leverages φ-divergence to address the uncertainties associated with the estimated times. Finally, a case study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed framework, accompanied by an examination of various simulation experiments. The results obtained indicate that the implementation of a flexible loading strategy can lead to a 24% reduction in the loading time of vessels.
本研究为港口集装箱码头的同步装卸和维护操作提出了一个无与伦比的综合调度模型,其中多个异构装卸设备为进出港船舶提供服务。在这方面,还考虑了多模式装载方法和多重分配的可能性,即出港船只可以装载属于进港船只或存储区的集装箱。此外,所提出的模型涵盖了进出港集装箱数量相等和不相等的所有情况。更重要的是,考虑了一种灵活的装载方法,该方法基于基于等级的积载计划,以更好地利用设备并提高装载过程的效率。此外,由于维护操作的时间无疑会影响调度并带来各种不确定性,因此提出了一种两阶段数据驱动方法来估算稳健的维护操作时间。第一阶段采用混合机器学习策略,结合萨维茨基-戈雷滤波器(SGF)、高木-菅野-康(TSK)模糊系统和带正则化、DropRule 和 AdaBound(MBGD-RDA)的小批量梯度下降法来估算维护作业时间。第二阶段采用分布稳健优化(DRO)技术,利用φ-发散来解决与估计时间相关的不确定性。最后,通过对各种模拟实验的检查,进行了一项案例研究,以证明拟议框架的有效性和适用性。结果表明,实施灵活的装载策略可使船舶装载时间缩短 24%。
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引用次数: 0
Decomposition of driving factors of carbon emissions and carbon sinks from marine fishery production in China 中国海洋渔业生产碳排放与碳汇驱动因素分解
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107476
Jiekun Song, Zhicheng Liu, Kaiyuan Huang, Xueli Leng, Huisheng Xiao
Marine fishery production has the dual properties of "carbon source" and "carbon sink", and is an important means to achieve carbon neutrality. This study combines a two-layer meta-frontier production theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) model with the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model to analyze the driving factors of carbon source change in Marine fishery production in China's coastal provinces. The LMDI model is applied to analyze the effects of employed population, per capita output value, input area per unit of output value, output per unit area and output structure on carbon sinks in each province. The results indicate that: (1) The potential energy intensity and technological progress are the driving factors of carbon emission reduction in most provinces, while output value and energy consumption structure are the important hindering factors. Each province should improve the overall efficiency of energy utilization, promote technological progress, and optimize the energy consumption structure to reduce carbon emissions. (2) The non-stationarity of scale efficiency of energy utilization promoted carbon emission reduction recently. All provinces, especially those with scale efficiency less than 1, should pursue the optimal allocation efficiency of input resources and maintain the coordination of scale development. (3) The effects reflecting the inter-regional pure technical efficiency imbalance and the impact of inter-regional scale efficiency are mostly 0. The provinces with positive effects should catch up with the advanced provinces and seek the best technology and management level and the optimal input-output scale. (4) The effects reflecting the imbalance of pure technological efficiency and the ineffectiveness of scale efficiency within the region are almost 0. Each province should continue to maintain a high level of technology and management, as well as a high efficiency in resource allocation, to ensure the efficient use of input resources and their optimal scale. (5) Per capita output value and output per unit area are the main driving factors of carbon sinks. In addition to leveraging the positive effects of these two factors, each province should focus on optimizing product structure and increasing the employed population to increase carbon sinks. (6) Regional integrated and coordinated management should be implemented. According to the important factors affecting the change of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in each region, the provinces in the region should be coordinated to take targeted measures.
海洋渔业生产具有 "碳源 "和 "碳汇 "的双重属性,是实现碳中和的重要手段。本研究将两层元前沿生产理论分解分析(PDA)模型与对数平均分化指数(LMDI)模型相结合,分析了中国沿海省份海洋渔业生产碳源变化的驱动因素。利用 LMDI 模型分析了各省就业人口、人均产值、单位产值投入面积、单位面积产出和产出结构对碳汇的影响。结果表明(1)潜在能源强度和技术进步是大部分省份碳减排的驱动因素,产值和能耗结构是重要的阻碍因素。各省应提高能源综合利用效率,促进技术进步,优化能源消费结构,以减少碳排放。(2)能源利用规模效率的非稳定性促进了近期碳减排。各省,尤其是规模效率小于 1 的省份,应追求投入资源的最优配置效率,保持规模发展的协调性。(3)反映区域间纯技术效率失衡和区域间规模效率影响的效应大多为 0,效应为正的省份应赶超先进省份,寻求最佳的技术和管理水平以及最优的投入产出规模。(4)反映区域内纯技术效率失衡和规模效率失效的效应几乎为 0,各省应继续保持较高的技术和管理水平,以及较高的资源配置效率,确保投入资源的高效利用和规模最优。(5)人均产值和单位面积产出是碳汇的主要驱动因素。除了发挥这两个因素的积极作用外,各省应注重优化产品结构,增加就业人口,以增加碳汇。(六)实施区域综合协调管理。根据各地区影响碳排放和碳汇变化的重要因素,协调区域内各省采取有针对性的措施。
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引用次数: 0
The interaction between climate change and marine fisheries: Review, challenges, and gaps 气候变化与海洋渔业之间的相互作用:回顾、挑战和差距
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107479
Yidan Xu , Thomas Krafft , Pim Martens
Climate change presents profound challenges to marine ecosystems and fisheries, necessitating effective management and adaptive strategies. Simultaneously, marine fisheries exacerbate climate change by emitting greenhouse gases through fuel combustion and electricity consumption. This article reviews 142 studies on the bidirectional interactions between climate change and marine fisheries (ICCMF), utilizing bibliometric methods including co-occurrence network analysis, cluster analysis, and conceptual framework analysis to identify research trends, challenges, and gaps. The bibliometric analysis reveals an explosive growth in publications and patents related to ICCMF since 2020. The key themes in ICCMF research encompass: (a) the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries, (b) the contribution of marine fisheries to climate change, (c) stakeholder perceptions and responses to climate change, and (d) adaptive management strategies for climate-resilient fisheries. Notably, recent studies have increasingly focused on carbon emissions and carbon sinks in marine fishery industries, emphasizing the need for further research into carbon reduction practices to mitigate climate change. This review identifies several challenges, including geographical disparities, knowledge inequality, "parachute science" and "helicopter research," issues with data quality and management, and inadequate capacity to adapt to climate change. Key research gaps include the limited representation of perspectives from the Global South, the absence of sustained partnerships, imbalances in research collaboration, restricted data accessibility and reliability, and an inadequate understanding of fisheries' carbon emissions. This review provides valuable insights for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders, highlighting the need for strategic management approaches to mitigate adverse impacts and promote marine ecosystem sustainability.
气候变化给海洋生态系统和渔业带来了深远的挑战,需要有效的管理和适应战略。同时,海洋渔业通过燃料燃烧和电力消耗排放温室气体,加剧了气候变化。本文利用文献计量学方法,包括共现网络分析、聚类分析和概念框架分析,回顾了142项关于气候变化与海洋渔业(ICCMF)双向互动关系的研究,以确定研究趋势、挑战和差距。文献计量分析显示,自 2020 年以来,与 ICCMF 相关的出版物和专利呈爆炸式增长。ICCMF研究的关键主题包括:(a) 气候变化对海洋渔业的影响,(b) 海洋渔业对气候变化的贡献,(c) 利益相关者对气候变化的看法和反应,以及(d) 气候适应性渔业的适应性管理战略。值得注意的是,最近的研究越来越多地关注海洋渔业的碳排放和碳汇,强调需要进一 步研究减少碳排放的做法,以减缓气候变化。本综述指出了若干挑战,包括地理差异、知识不平等、"降落伞科学 "和 "直升机研究"、数据质量和管理问题以及适应气候变化的能力不足。主要的研究差距包括来自全球南部的观点代表性有限、缺乏持续的合作伙伴关系、研究合作不平衡、数据可获取性和可靠性受限以及对渔业碳排放的认识不足。本综述为研究人员、政策制定者和利益相关者提供了有价值的见解,强调了采取战略管理方法减轻不利影响和促进海洋生态系统可持续性的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Participatory mapping of uses and ecosystem services as a useful tool for the identification of conflicts in Marine Protected Areas: The case of the Cíes Islands archipelago (NW Spain) 使用和生态系统服务的参与式绘图是确定海洋保护区冲突的有用工具:西耶斯群岛(西班牙西北部)案例
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107474
J. Molina-Urruela , E. Fernández , A.J. Castro , M. Expósito-Granados , A. Ovejero-Campos , S. Villasante , G. Méndez-Martínez
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) aim to preserve marine natural capital and reduce marine biodiversity loss. However, due to the diversity of objectives in marine planning, their management involves the resolution of conflicts on current uses and ecosystem services. Participatory mapping is a useful technique in MPA's management that uses local knowledge to map ecosystem services and associated conflicts and threats. The goal of this study was to analyse the stakeholders' perception on uses and ecosystem services in the Cíes Islands archipelago, located in the National Park of the Galician Atlantic Islands. Results from semi-structured questionnaires conducted with different stakeholders, indicated that landscape values and marine research were the most valued ecosystem services, although slight differences were found between fishers and other sectors. The activities exerting the highest pressure on the protected area were fishing and tourism. Conflicts were mainly associated with the co-existence of activities within the MPA, potentially threatening conservation goals. Participatory mapping helped to identify MPA management actions to achieve conservation objectives while maintaining current uses and activities in the future.
海洋保护区 (MPA) 旨在保护海洋自然资本,减少海洋生物多样性的损失。然而,由于海洋规划目标的多样性,其管理涉及解决当前使用和生态系统服务方面的冲突。参与式绘图是海洋保护区管理中的一项有用技术,它利用当地知识绘制生态系统服务及相关冲突和威胁的地图。本研究的目标是分析利益相关者对位于加利西亚大西洋群岛国家公园内的 Cíes 群岛的使用和生态系统服务的看法。对不同利益相关者进行的半结构式问卷调查结果表明,景观价值和海洋研究是最受重视的生态系统服务,但渔民和其他部门之间略有不同。对保护区造成最大压力的活动是渔业和旅游业。冲突主要与海洋保护区内活动的共存有关,这可能会威胁到保护目标。参与式绘图有助于确定海洋保护区的管理行动,以实现保护目标,同时保持当前的用途和未来的活动。
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引用次数: 0
Pricing blue carbon to promote the protection and restoration of the marine environment: A real option model 为蓝碳定价,促进海洋环境的保护和恢复:实物期权模型
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107475
Shan-Shan Jiang , Jing-Mei Li
Pricing blue carbon will allow the monetization of the implicit carbon sequestration value of socioeconomic activities in marine ecosystems. This will empower those engaged in marine environment protection and restoration to reap economic benefits while imposing costs on those who harm the marine environment or carbon-emitting enterprises. This can significantly increase the enthusiasm of local governments, enterprises, and others for protecting and restoring the marine environment. However, owing to the characteristics of public goods and the externalities of blue carbon, it is difficult to price them through the supply and demand relationship of the traditional market. This paper focuses on how to price blue carbon under government policies and market uncertainties to encourage investors to engage in blue carbon projects involving the ecological protection and restoration of coastal wetlands. First, a universal blue carbon pricing model is established via the real option approach. The mangrove blue carbon project in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, was used as a case study to evaluate the price of mangrove blue carbon. This research provides technical support for the formation of blue carbon prices, and this method can be used not only to promote the protection and restoration of the marine environment but also to optimize the supply of blue carbon, fully leveraging its role in addressing climate change.
蓝碳定价将使海洋生态系统中社会经济活动的隐性碳固存价值货币化。这将使从事海洋环境保护和恢复的人获得经济收益,同时让那些破坏海洋环境或碳排放企业付出代价。这可以大大提高地方政府、企业等保护和恢复海洋环境的积极性。然而,由于蓝碳具有公共产品和外部性的特点,很难通过传统市场的供求关系进行定价。本文主要探讨如何在政府政策和市场不确定的情况下对蓝碳进行定价,以鼓励投资者参与涉及沿海湿地生态保护和恢复的蓝碳项目。首先,通过实物期权法建立通用蓝碳定价模型。以广东湛江红树林蓝碳项目为例,对红树林蓝碳价格进行了评估。该研究为蓝碳价格的形成提供了技术支持,该方法不仅可用于促进海洋环境的保护和恢复,还可用于优化蓝碳供给,充分发挥蓝碳在应对气候变化中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the health and scenic quality of sandy beaches: A large-scale evaluation using expert judgement 评估沙滩的健康和景观质量:利用专家判断进行大规模评估
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107468
Omar Defeo , Juan A. Licandro , Julieta Olalde , Sofía Bausero-Jorcin , Eleonora Celentano , Anita de Álava , Gabriela Jorge-Romero , Diego Lercari , Nelson Rangel-Buitrago
Sandy beaches, essential components of coastal landscapes, are increasingly threatened by urbanization, resource extraction, and climate change, jeopardizing their ecological integrity and scenic value. This study assesses the health and scenic quality of 100 sandy beaches along the Uruguayan coast, influenced by the Ro de la Plata estuary, using the Coastal Scenery Evaluation System (CSES) and a dune integrity assessment as indicators of ecosystem health. The analysis identified urbanization as the primary driver of beach degradation, with the most urbanized beaches, particularly those in the inner and outer estuary macrozones, exhibiting the lowest scenic and ecological values. In contrast, beaches with greater dune integrity and lower human impact, especially those in the oceanic macrozone, demonstrated better scenic quality and ecological health. This study emphasizes the role of natural features, such as dunes and natural vegetation, in sustaining beach health, while stressing the urgent need for sustainable management practices to safeguard the ecological and cultural value of these fragile ecosystems. The findings offer critical insights for coastal governance, management, and conservation, advocating for the protection of less developed beaches and the restoration of degraded beaches through scientifically robust management plans. This approach also emphasizes the importance of inclusive decision-making, fostering active societal engagement to enhance long-term resilience and sustainability in areas threatened by coastal grabbing.
沙滩是海岸景观的重要组成部分,但正日益受到城市化、资源开采和气候变化的威胁,危及其生态完整性和景观价值。本研究采用海岸景观评估系统(CSES)和沙丘完整性评估作为生态系统健康指标,评估了受拉普拉塔河口影响的乌拉圭沿岸 100 个沙滩的健康状况和景观质量。分析结果表明,城市化是海滩退化的主要驱动因素,城市化程度最高的海滩,尤其是河口内、外宏观区域的海滩,风景和生态价值最低。相比之下,沙丘完整性较高、人类影响较小的海滩,尤其是位于海洋大区的海滩,风景质量和生态健康状况较好。这项研究强调了沙丘和天然植被等自然特征在维持海滩健康方面的作用,同时强调迫切需要采取可持续的管理措施来保护这些脆弱生态系统的生态和文化价值。研究结果为沿海治理、管理和保护提供了重要启示,倡导保护欠发达海滩,并通过科学有力的管理计划恢复退化的海滩。这种方法还强调了包容性决策的重要性,促进社会积极参与,以增强受海岸侵占威胁地区的长期恢复能力和可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
No-take zone in check: An ecological assessment of the management role in reef fish conservation in a Brazilian Hope Spot region 禁渔区受到控制:对巴西希望点地区珊瑚礁鱼类保护管理作用的生态评估
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107469
Augusto A. Machado , Aline A. Aguiar , Maria L. Abieri , Bruno P. Masi , Mauricio Hostim-Silva , Áthila A. Bertoncini
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been considered one of the most effective conservation management strategies worldwide. Despite its relevance, anthropogenic disturbances continue to cast doubt on its importance. Here we explored the effects of the protection of no-take zones on the fish community in a recent Brazilian Hope Spot. Threatened and fishery-target species distributions and ecological descriptors were assessed by underwater visual censuses and submersible rotating videos from 2020 to 2022. There were significant differences between areas (Protected, Rasa is., and Far) where fish median richness was higher in both sampling techniques and higher median densities through submersible rotating videos within MPA limits compared to non-protected areas. Besides that, Cagarras Islands Natural Monument sheltered about 84.7% (n = 17) of the total threatened species recorded in the study area, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature classification. Our results integrated with stakeholders' knowledge may provide a powerful message to decision-makers about the importance of protected areas for marine conservation. In this context, it is fundamental to consider Hope Spots as an opportunity to change unsustainable human practices and enhance the conservation of the marine life worldwide.
海洋保护区(MPAs)一直被认为是全球最有效的保护管理策略之一。尽管海洋保护区具有重要意义,但人为干扰仍使人们对其重要性产生怀疑。在这里,我们探讨了禁渔区的保护对巴西最近一个希望点的鱼类群落的影响。从 2020 年到 2022 年,我们通过水下目测普查和潜水器旋转视频评估了濒危物种和渔业目标物种的分布以及生态描述指标。不同区域(保护区、Rasa is.和 Far)之间存在明显差异,与非保护区相比,在海洋保护区范围内,两种取样技术的鱼类丰富度中位数更高,潜水器旋转视频的密度中位数也更高。此外,根据国际自然保护联盟的分类,卡加拉斯群岛自然保护区内记录的濒危物种约占研究区总数的 84.7%(n = 17)。我们的研究结果与利益相关者的知识相结合,可以向决策者发出强有力的信息,说明保护区对海洋保护的重要性。在这种情况下,将希望之点视为改变人类不可持续的做法和加强全球海洋生物保护的一个契机是至关重要的。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of CHINA RAILWAY Express on alleviating the Red Sea Waterway Crisis: A GTAP model-based study 中国铁路快运对缓解红海水道危机的影响:基于 GTAP 模型的研究
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107472
Yiting Wang, Ji Guo, Xianhua Wu
In November 2023, the Red Sea Waterway Crisis broke out, which caused the goods originally shipped to Europe via the Red Sea-Suez Canal Route to be transported around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, thus increasing the shipping cost and shipping time. Firstly, this paper uses the Supply Chain Network Model and the Optimization Model to theoretically analyze the impact of this incident. Secondly, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model is employed to analyze the impact of the crisis on China. At the same time, it also explains whether the impact of the incident can be alleviated by using CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR Express). Finally, this paper compares the upward pressure changes of domestic commodity prices in China, Germany, France, Netherlands and Italy before and after the adoption of CR Express. The results of the study are as follows. (1) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a great negative impact on China's macro economy. When China switches to the use of CR Express, the impact on China's GDP and terms of trade is reduced. (2) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a greater impact on China's import trade than on its export trade. (3) The outbreak of the Red Sea Waterway Crisis has a great negative impact on China's textile and clothing industry and electronic equipment industry. (4) CR Express can ease the upward pressure of domestic commodity prices. Taken together, the above results can provide reference for China and other countries to cope with similar impact events.
2023 年 11 月,红海水道危机爆发,导致原本通过红海-苏伊士运河航线运往欧洲的货物不得不绕道非洲好望角运输,从而增加了运输成本和运输时间。首先,本文利用供应链网络模型和优化模型对这一事件的影响进行了理论分析。其次,运用全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)模型分析危机对中国的影响。同时,本文还解释了是否可以通过使用中国铁路快运(CR Express)来缓解此次事件的影响。最后,本文比较了中国、德国、法国、荷兰和意大利在采用中铁快运前后国内商品价格的上涨压力变化。研究结果如下。(1)红海水道危机的爆发对中国宏观经济产生了巨大的负面影响。当中国改用 CR Express 后,对中国 GDP 和贸易条件的影响减小。(2)红海水道危机的爆发对中国进口贸易的影响大于对出口贸易的影响。(3) 红海水道危机的爆发对中国纺织服装业和电子设备业的负面影响较大。(4)华润快递可以缓解国内大宗商品价格的上涨压力。综合以上结果,可以为中国和其他国家应对类似的冲击事件提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Longline hook selectivity for whiting (Merlangius merlangus euxinus) with a perspective on small-scale fisheries management in the Black Sea, Türkiye 从土耳其黑海小型渔业管理的角度看延绳钓鳕鱼(Merlangius merlangus euxinus)的鱼钩选择性
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107467
Fatma Çebin , Tuncay Yeşilçiçek , Ferhat Kalayci
This study investigated the selectivity parameters of bottom longlines for the Whiting (Merlangius merlangus euxinus) in the small-scale fisheries of the Southeastern Black Sea. Experimental fishing operations were conducted using longlines with hook of 11, 12, 13, and 14mm gaps. A total of 552 fish specimens from four species were captured, with Whiting, the target species, accounting for 90.94% (502 specimens) of the total catch by numbers. The sizes of the Whiting ranged from 10.6 to 20.0 cm Total Length (TL), with a mean size of 15.79 ± 0.087 cm TL. The longline selectivity parameters and curves were fitted using the SELECT method, with the bi-modal model offering the best-fit, based on the lowest deviance value. The modal sizes of specimens caught using the hook of 11, 12, 13, and 14-mm gaps were 12.40, 13.53, 14.66, and 15.78 cm TL, respectively. The modal sizes and spread values increased proportionally with hook size. All the individuals caught by the 14-mm gap hooks exceeded the minimum landing size (MLS) of 13 cm. However, the proportions of individuals below the MLS for the 11, 12, and 13-mm gap hooks were 32.09%, 6.98%, and 0.68%, respectively. Based on the MLS, hooks with gaps larger than 11 mm were found to be highly selective and are recommended for sustainability of the fisheries while ensuring the conservation of immature individuals in the Whiting stocks of the Black Sea. These findings contribute to the much-needed data and information for the design of sound management plans for the small-scale fisheries in the region.
本研究调查了黑海东南部小型渔业中底层延绳钓鳕鱼(Merlangius merlangus euxinus)的选择性参数。试验性捕捞作业使用了钩间隙为 11、12、13 和 14 毫米的延绳。共捕获了四种鱼类的 552 个标本,其中目标鱼种 Whiting 的数量占总捕获量的 90.94%(502 个标本)。鳕鱼的总长度(TL)从 10.6 厘米到 20.0 厘米不等,平均总长度(TL)为 15.79 ± 0.087 厘米。使用 SELECT 方法对延绳钓选择性参数和曲线进行了拟合,根据最低偏差值,双模态模型的拟合效果最好。使用 11、12、13 和 14 毫米间隙的鱼钩捕获的标本的模态尺寸分别为 12.40、13.53、14.66 和 15.78 厘米(TL)。随着鱼钩尺寸的增加,模态尺寸和散布值也成比例增加。所有被 14 毫米间隙鱼钩捕获的个体都超过了 13 厘米的最小上岸尺寸(MLS)。然而,11、12 和 13 毫米间隙钩钓到的个体低于最小上岸尺寸的比例分别为 32.09%、6.98% 和 0.68%。根据最小可捕量,发现间隙大于 11 毫米的鱼钩具有高度选择性,建议在确保渔业可持续发展的同时,保护黑海鳕鱼种群中的未成熟个体。这些发现为该地区小型渔业设计合理的管理计划提供了急需的数据和信息。
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Ocean & Coastal Management
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