Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4
Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo, Ping Qin, Yifei Quan, Jun Li, Xiaoxi Wang
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Abstract

Demand-side mitigation relies on individuals’ and households’ willingness to alter their consumption habits and daily routines to reduce their carbon footprint. Despite optimistic forecasts for well-being improvements, broad adoption of these behavioural changes remains elusive. Our study analyses 12 behaviours in Beijing, China, using a cost–benefit approach that includes both tangible (pecuniary) and intangible (non-pecuniary) benefits. Our findings indicate that eight behaviours result in individual-level welfare loss. Even after accounting for mitigation benefits, seven behaviours still incur social-welfare loss. Monte Carlo simulations unveil substantial variability in welfare impacts, highlighting opportunities for targeted policy interventions. Depending on the perspective (individual versus societal) and the goal (welfare versus mitigation), we recommend four demand-side practices for Beijing policymakers. In addition, we propose actionable steps on the basis of sensitivity analyses. This study underscores the need for an objective and universally applicable framework to evaluate demand-side behaviours and optimize emissions reduction potential. Demand-side mitigation solutions are seen as an essential part for climate actions, yet their adoption is still lower than expected. Cost–benefit analysis shows that the main barriers lie in the non-pecuniary costs of behaviour switching, and highlights opportunities for targeted policy intervention.

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利用成本效益分析确定需求方缓解措施的关键机会
需求侧减排依赖于个人和家庭改变其消费习惯和日常生活方式以减少碳足迹的意愿。尽管人们对福祉的改善持乐观态度,但广泛采用这些行为改变仍然遥遥无期。我们的研究采用成本效益法分析了中国北京的 12 种行为,包括有形(金钱)和无形(非金钱)效益。研究结果表明,有八种行为会导致个人福利损失。即使考虑到缓解效益,仍有七种行为会造成社会福利损失。蒙特卡洛模拟揭示了福利影响的巨大变异性,凸显了有针对性的政策干预机会。根据不同的视角(个人还是社会)和目标(福利还是减排),我们为北京的政策制定者推荐了四种需求方实践。此外,我们还在敏感性分析的基础上提出了可操作的步骤。本研究强调,需要一个客观、普遍适用的框架来评估需求方行为,优化减排潜力。
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来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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