Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02183-z
Patricia DeRepentigny
Wildfires are raging around the globe with increasing intensity and frequency, transforming ecosystems and affecting the climate of regions far beyond. Now, a study shows that boreal forest fires are amplifying Arctic warming due to increased local solar absorption from biomass burning aerosols.
{"title":"When fire and ice meet","authors":"Patricia DeRepentigny","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02183-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02183-z","url":null,"abstract":"Wildfires are raging around the globe with increasing intensity and frequency, transforming ecosystems and affecting the climate of regions far beyond. Now, a study shows that boreal forest fires are amplifying Arctic warming due to increased local solar absorption from biomass burning aerosols.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142665289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02175-z
A novel type of climate oscillation might emerge in the Arctic Ocean owing to sea-ice melting. The air–sea coupling feedbacks occurring in the ice-free Arctic Ocean would trigger periodic warm–cold temperature oscillations, similar to El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
{"title":"‘Arctic Niño’ might emerge in an ice-free world","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02175-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02175-z","url":null,"abstract":"A novel type of climate oscillation might emerge in the Arctic Ocean owing to sea-ice melting. The air–sea coupling feedbacks occurring in the ice-free Arctic Ocean would trigger periodic warm–cold temperature oscillations, similar to El Niño and La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142665284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02192-y
Kai Zhang, Yifang Dang, Yiming Li, Cui Tao, Junguk Hur, Yongqun He
Climate change poses a substantial threat to global health by altering environmental conditions and impacting vaccine effectiveness. We explore how climate change impacts vaccines and worsens inequities, highlighting the need for further research and targeted interventions.
{"title":"Impact of climate change on vaccine responses and inequity","authors":"Kai Zhang, Yifang Dang, Yiming Li, Cui Tao, Junguk Hur, Yongqun He","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02192-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02192-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change poses a substantial threat to global health by altering environmental conditions and impacting vaccine effectiveness. We explore how climate change impacts vaccines and worsens inequities, highlighting the need for further research and targeted interventions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-23DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
Kaitlin A. Naughten, Paul R. Holland, Jan De Rydt
Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The authors use a regional ocean model to project ocean-driven ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea. Already committed rapid ocean warming drives increased melt, regardless of emission scenario, suggesting extensive ice loss from West Antarctica.
{"title":"Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century","authors":"Kaitlin A. Naughten, Paul R. Holland, Jan De Rydt","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The authors use a regional ocean model to project ocean-driven ice-shelf melt in the Amundsen Sea. Already committed rapid ocean warming drives increased melt, regardless of emission scenario, suggesting extensive ice loss from West Antarctica.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1222-1228"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49696031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-23DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01851-w
Richard Massey, Brendan M. Rogers, Logan T. Berner, Sol Cooperdock, Michelle C. Mack, Xanthe J. Walker, Scott J. Goetz
Deciduous tree cover is expected to increase in North American boreal forests with climate warming and wildfire. This shift in composition has the potential to generate biophysical cooling via increased land surface albedo. Here we use Landsat-derived maps of continuous tree canopy cover and deciduous fractional composition to assess albedo change over recent decades. We find, on average, a small net decrease in deciduous fraction from 2000 to 2015 across boreal North America and from 1992 to 2015 across Canada, despite extensive fire disturbance that locally increased deciduous vegetation. We further find near-neutral net biophysical change in radiative forcing associated with albedo when aggregated across the domain. Thus, while there have been widespread changes in forest composition over the past several decades, the net changes in composition and associated post-fire radiative forcing have not induced systematic negative feedbacks to climate warming over the spatial and temporal scope of our study. Wildfire can lead to shifts in forest composition to more deciduous tree cover, which can have a biophysical cooling effect on climate. This study finds no net increase in deciduous cover or biophysical cooling over boreal North America in recent decades, despite widespread landscape scale change.
{"title":"Forest composition change and biophysical climate feedbacks across boreal North America","authors":"Richard Massey, Brendan M. Rogers, Logan T. Berner, Sol Cooperdock, Michelle C. Mack, Xanthe J. Walker, Scott J. Goetz","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01851-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01851-w","url":null,"abstract":"Deciduous tree cover is expected to increase in North American boreal forests with climate warming and wildfire. This shift in composition has the potential to generate biophysical cooling via increased land surface albedo. Here we use Landsat-derived maps of continuous tree canopy cover and deciduous fractional composition to assess albedo change over recent decades. We find, on average, a small net decrease in deciduous fraction from 2000 to 2015 across boreal North America and from 1992 to 2015 across Canada, despite extensive fire disturbance that locally increased deciduous vegetation. We further find near-neutral net biophysical change in radiative forcing associated with albedo when aggregated across the domain. Thus, while there have been widespread changes in forest composition over the past several decades, the net changes in composition and associated post-fire radiative forcing have not induced systematic negative feedbacks to climate warming over the spatial and temporal scope of our study. Wildfire can lead to shifts in forest composition to more deciduous tree cover, which can have a biophysical cooling effect on climate. This study finds no net increase in deciduous cover or biophysical cooling over boreal North America in recent decades, despite widespread landscape scale change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 12","pages":"1368-1375"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01851-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49696032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-23DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01817-y
Taimoor Sohail
The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a worrying climate tipping point, with the potential to raise global sea level by up to 5.3 metres. Now, an assessment of future climate scenarios suggests that accelerated melting of ice shelves in West Antarctica is locked in, even for the most ambitious emissions reduction scenarios.
{"title":"Committed future ice-shelf melt","authors":"Taimoor Sohail","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01817-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01817-y","url":null,"abstract":"The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a worrying climate tipping point, with the potential to raise global sea level by up to 5.3 metres. Now, an assessment of future climate scenarios suggests that accelerated melting of ice shelves in West Antarctica is locked in, even for the most ambitious emissions reduction scenarios.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1164-1165"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49696030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-19DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x
Alexandre K. Magnan, Robert Bell, Virginie K. E. Duvat, James D. Ford, Matthias Garschagen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Carmen Lacambra, Inigo J. Losada, Katharine J. Mach, Mélinda Noblet, Devanathan Parthasaranthy, Marcello Sano, Katharine Vincent, Ariadna Anisimov, Susan Hanson, Alexandra Malmström, Robert J. Nicholls, Gundula Winter
The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels. Assessing adaptation progress is key to reducing risk associated with climate change, yet the status of adaptation in most sectors is unclear. This study assesses the state of coastal adaptation globally and finds that current efforts fulfil about half of the total potential.
{"title":"Status of global coastal adaptation","authors":"Alexandre K. Magnan, Robert Bell, Virginie K. E. Duvat, James D. Ford, Matthias Garschagen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Carmen Lacambra, Inigo J. Losada, Katharine J. Mach, Mélinda Noblet, Devanathan Parthasaranthy, Marcello Sano, Katharine Vincent, Ariadna Anisimov, Susan Hanson, Alexandra Malmström, Robert J. Nicholls, Gundula Winter","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x","url":null,"abstract":"The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels. Assessing adaptation progress is key to reducing risk associated with climate change, yet the status of adaptation in most sectors is unclear. This study assesses the state of coastal adaptation globally and finds that current efforts fulfil about half of the total potential.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1213-1221"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49696999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-19DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01844-9
Assessing progress and gaps in climate adaptation is a key policy concern, and also raises scientific challenges around which metrics should be used and who should assess progress. A structured expert judgement using local case studies shows that, for coastal areas, today’s global adaptation is halfway to achieving the full adaptation potential.
{"title":"Global climate adaptation assessed by structured expert judgement for coastal areas","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01844-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01844-9","url":null,"abstract":"Assessing progress and gaps in climate adaptation is a key policy concern, and also raises scientific challenges around which metrics should be used and who should assess progress. A structured expert judgement using local case studies shows that, for coastal areas, today’s global adaptation is halfway to achieving the full adaptation potential.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1168-1169"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49696998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01824-z
Jan Petzold, Tom Hawxwell, Kerstin Jantke, Eduardo Gonçalves Gresse, Charlotta Mirbach, Idowu Ajibade, Suruchi Bhadwal, Kathryn Bowen, Alexandra Paige Fischer, Elphin Tom Joe, Christine J. Kirchhoff, Katharine J. Mach, Diana Reckien, Alcade C. Segnon, Chandni Singh, Nicola Ulibarri, Donovan Campbell, Emilie Cremin, Leonie Färber, Greeshma Hegde, Jihye Jeong, Abraham Marshall Nunbogu, Himansu Kesari Pradhan, Lea S. Schröder, Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah, Pauline Reese, Ferdous Sultana, Carlos Tello, Jiren Xu, The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative Team, Matthias Garschagen
An assessment of the global progress in climate change adaptation is urgently needed. Despite a rising awareness that adaptation should involve diverse societal actors and a shared sense of responsibility, little is known about the types of actors, such as state and non-state, and their roles in different types of adaptation responses as well as in different regions. Based on a large n-structured analysis of case studies, we show that, although individuals or households are the most prominent actors implementing adaptation, they are the least involved in institutional responses, particularly in the global south. Governments are most often involved in planning and civil society in coordinating responses. Adaptation of individuals or households is documented especially in rural areas, and governments in urban areas. Overall, understanding of institutional, multi-actor and transformational adaptation is still limited. These findings contribute to debates around ‘social contracts’ for adaptation, that is, an agreement on the distribution of roles and responsibilities, and inform future adaptation governance. For global adaptation effort, it is essential to understand which actors are participating and what their roles are. This Analysis, based on comparative case studies, displays the dominant actors in adaptation, and how the actor–role patterns vary across regions.
{"title":"A global assessment of actors and their roles in climate change adaptation","authors":"Jan Petzold, Tom Hawxwell, Kerstin Jantke, Eduardo Gonçalves Gresse, Charlotta Mirbach, Idowu Ajibade, Suruchi Bhadwal, Kathryn Bowen, Alexandra Paige Fischer, Elphin Tom Joe, Christine J. Kirchhoff, Katharine J. Mach, Diana Reckien, Alcade C. Segnon, Chandni Singh, Nicola Ulibarri, Donovan Campbell, Emilie Cremin, Leonie Färber, Greeshma Hegde, Jihye Jeong, Abraham Marshall Nunbogu, Himansu Kesari Pradhan, Lea S. Schröder, Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah, Pauline Reese, Ferdous Sultana, Carlos Tello, Jiren Xu, The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative Team, Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01824-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01824-z","url":null,"abstract":"An assessment of the global progress in climate change adaptation is urgently needed. Despite a rising awareness that adaptation should involve diverse societal actors and a shared sense of responsibility, little is known about the types of actors, such as state and non-state, and their roles in different types of adaptation responses as well as in different regions. Based on a large n-structured analysis of case studies, we show that, although individuals or households are the most prominent actors implementing adaptation, they are the least involved in institutional responses, particularly in the global south. Governments are most often involved in planning and civil society in coordinating responses. Adaptation of individuals or households is documented especially in rural areas, and governments in urban areas. Overall, understanding of institutional, multi-actor and transformational adaptation is still limited. These findings contribute to debates around ‘social contracts’ for adaptation, that is, an agreement on the distribution of roles and responsibilities, and inform future adaptation governance. For global adaptation effort, it is essential to understand which actors are participating and what their roles are. This Analysis, based on comparative case studies, displays the dominant actors in adaptation, and how the actor–role patterns vary across regions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1250-1257"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01824-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49698095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-12DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01829-8
Jennifer V. Mecking, Sybren S. Drijfhout
The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Projections of ocean heat transport show a decrease which is driven by a decline in overturning circulation. Such a decrease in ocean heat transport can dampen the global warming signal in Northwest Europe.
{"title":"The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming","authors":"Jennifer V. Mecking, Sybren S. Drijfhout","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01829-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01829-8","url":null,"abstract":"The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Projections of ocean heat transport show a decrease which is driven by a decline in overturning circulation. Such a decrease in ocean heat transport can dampen the global warming signal in Northwest Europe.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 11","pages":"1229-1236"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01829-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49698027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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