Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Lilian Schuster, Rodrigo Aguayo, Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Brandon Tober, Daniel Farinotti
Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.
{"title":"Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century","authors":"Lander Van Tricht, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Lilian Schuster, Rodrigo Aguayo, Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Brandon Tober, Daniel Farinotti","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9","url":null,"abstract":"Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145759783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02511-x
Frank Venmans, Wilfried Rickels, Ben Groom
{"title":"Reducing the large short-lived impact of methane emissions with temporary carbon removals","authors":"Frank Venmans, Wilfried Rickels, Ben Groom","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02511-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02511-x","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02487-8
Frank Venmans, Wilfried Rickels, Ben Groom
Unlike CO 2 , methane emissions have a particularly large short-term effect on temperature. We argue that these largely temporary temperature effects of methane emissions are apt to be offset by temporary CO 2 removal. Temporally matching offsetting temperature reductions to the temperature impulse of methane eliminates the sizable intertemporal welfare transfers that occur when methane is offset by equivalent permanent CO 2 removals. Assessing equivalence based on avoided economic damages suggests that about 87 temporary CO 2 removals over a period of 30 years are needed to offset 1 t of methane. Agreement on the appropriate quantity of temporary CO 2 offsets is insensitive to controversial parameters such as the social discount rate, climate damages and future emission scenarios. Short-term monitoring periods of 20–30 years are likely to be more credibly enforceable for various nature-based CO 2 removal projects than long-term monitoring requirements.
{"title":"Temporary carbon dioxide removals to offset methane emissions","authors":"Frank Venmans, Wilfried Rickels, Ben Groom","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02487-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02487-8","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> , methane emissions have a particularly large short-term effect on temperature. We argue that these largely temporary temperature effects of methane emissions are apt to be offset by temporary CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removal. Temporally matching offsetting temperature reductions to the temperature impulse of methane eliminates the sizable intertemporal welfare transfers that occur when methane is offset by equivalent permanent CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removals. Assessing equivalence based on avoided economic damages suggests that about 87 temporary CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removals over a period of 30 years are needed to offset 1 t of methane. Agreement on the appropriate quantity of temporary CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> offsets is insensitive to controversial parameters such as the social discount rate, climate damages and future emission scenarios. Short-term monitoring periods of 20–30 years are likely to be more credibly enforceable for various nature-based CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removal projects than long-term monitoring requirements.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"138 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145680431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02496-7
Lydia G. Soifer, James Ball, Hamish Asmath, Ilya M. D. Maclean, David Coomes
Climate velocity—the speed and direction species must move to track climate change—is often estimated without accounting for vegetation-driven microclimatic variation. Using mechanistic microclimate models parameterized with three-dimensional maps of topography and vegetation structure, here we show that microclimate heterogeneity reduces the magnitude and alters the direction of climate velocity for maximum and minimum temperatures. For understory-dwelling organisms, the magnitude of maximum temperature velocity was halved and generally oriented towards areas with dense vegetation. For canopy-dwelling organisms, the magnitude of maximum temperature velocity was nearly zero, with vectors oriented vertically downward. These results demonstrate that vegetation complexity produces localized microrefugia, enabling short-term persistence of species under warming conditions. Our findings emphasize the need to integrate fine-scale habitat heterogeneity into predictions of climate resilience and highlight the value of structurally complex forests in providing microclimatic refugia.
{"title":"Microclimates slow and alter the direction of climate velocities in tropical forests","authors":"Lydia G. Soifer, James Ball, Hamish Asmath, Ilya M. D. Maclean, David Coomes","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02496-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02496-7","url":null,"abstract":"Climate velocity—the speed and direction species must move to track climate change—is often estimated without accounting for vegetation-driven microclimatic variation. Using mechanistic microclimate models parameterized with three-dimensional maps of topography and vegetation structure, here we show that microclimate heterogeneity reduces the magnitude and alters the direction of climate velocity for maximum and minimum temperatures. For understory-dwelling organisms, the magnitude of maximum temperature velocity was halved and generally oriented towards areas with dense vegetation. For canopy-dwelling organisms, the magnitude of maximum temperature velocity was nearly zero, with vectors oriented vertically downward. These results demonstrate that vegetation complexity produces localized microrefugia, enabling short-term persistence of species under warming conditions. Our findings emphasize the need to integrate fine-scale habitat heterogeneity into predictions of climate resilience and highlight the value of structurally complex forests in providing microclimatic refugia.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"144 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145609275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02524-6
Christopher W. Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew J. Wilson, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
{"title":"Author Correction: Increasing risk of mass human heat mortality if historical weather patterns recur","authors":"Christopher W. Callahan, Jared Trok, Andrew J. Wilson, Carlos F. Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02524-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02524-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145611615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-26DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02494-9
Lauren Cohen, Ethan Rouen, Kunal Sachdeva
{"title":"Widespread revisions of self-reported emissions by major US corporations","authors":"Lauren Cohen, Ethan Rouen, Kunal Sachdeva","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02494-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02494-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145599136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02506-8
Bishawjit Mallick, Lori Mae Hunter, Brooke Ackerly, Rup Priodarshini, Ilan Kelman, Ingrid Boas, Brianna Castro, Mathias Czaika, Bayes Ahmed, Md. Nasif Ahsan, Mariana Fajardo Arboleda, Ajay Bailey, Mucahid M. Bayrak, Kelsea Best, Amanda Carrico, Jamie Draper, Benjamin Etzold, Carol Farbotko, Animesh Kumar Gain, Tuhin Ghosh, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Marco Helbich, S. M. Labib, Dora Martins Sampaio, Mostafa Naser, Kei Otsuki, Balgah Roland, Oishi Rani Saha, Patrick Sakdapolrak, Gopa Samanta, Klara Schmock, Harald Sterly, Zakia Sultana, Kees van der Geest, Anna Viani, Julia van den Berg
Adaptation to climate change goes beyond the migration–non-migration divide. Families and communities combine mobility with rootedness, drawing on cultural ties, intergenerational learning, and lived knowledge to navigate risks and shape long-term futures.
{"title":"Future-making beyond (im)mobility through tethered resilience","authors":"Bishawjit Mallick, Lori Mae Hunter, Brooke Ackerly, Rup Priodarshini, Ilan Kelman, Ingrid Boas, Brianna Castro, Mathias Czaika, Bayes Ahmed, Md. Nasif Ahsan, Mariana Fajardo Arboleda, Ajay Bailey, Mucahid M. Bayrak, Kelsea Best, Amanda Carrico, Jamie Draper, Benjamin Etzold, Carol Farbotko, Animesh Kumar Gain, Tuhin Ghosh, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Marco Helbich, S. M. Labib, Dora Martins Sampaio, Mostafa Naser, Kei Otsuki, Balgah Roland, Oishi Rani Saha, Patrick Sakdapolrak, Gopa Samanta, Klara Schmock, Harald Sterly, Zakia Sultana, Kees van der Geest, Anna Viani, Julia van den Berg","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02506-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02506-8","url":null,"abstract":"Adaptation to climate change goes beyond the migration–non-migration divide. Families and communities combine mobility with rootedness, drawing on cultural ties, intergenerational learning, and lived knowledge to navigate risks and shape long-term futures.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 12","pages":"1257-1260"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145593762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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