Pub Date : 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02548-y
Robbert Biesbroek, Dore Engbersen, Jetske Bonenkamp, Emilie Broek, Eva Boon, Jurian Meijering, Johanna Nalau, James D. Ford, Edmond Totin, Timo Leiter, Elisabeth Gilmore, Kristie L. Ebi
{"title":"Expert agreement on key elements of transformational adaptation to climate risks","authors":"Robbert Biesbroek, Dore Engbersen, Jetske Bonenkamp, Emilie Broek, Eva Boon, Jurian Meijering, Johanna Nalau, James D. Ford, Edmond Totin, Timo Leiter, Elisabeth Gilmore, Kristie L. Ebi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02548-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02548-y","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-05DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02567-3
{"title":"Careful land allocation for carbon dioxide removal is critical for safeguarding biodiversity","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02567-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02567-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146135572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-03DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1
Gengxin Chen, Weiqing Han, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Arnold L. Gordon, Toshiaki Shinoda, Nan Rosenbloom, Lei Zhang, Yukio Masumoto
Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocean exchange—has experienced the strongest freshening in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1960s. This freshening drives a southward expansion of the Indo-Pacific freshwater pool into the South Indian Ocean, where freshwater has increased by 6.5 ± 0.5% per decade, as indicated by the shrinking 35.3 psu isohaline. Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow and intensified Subtropical Gyre inflow are the primary causes. In the upper ~200 m, freshening follows a new subtropical pathway rather than the usual tropical route. These changes arise from wind shifts linked to the Hadley cell’s poleward expansion and a stronger Indonesian Throughflow, both driven by warm-pool warming. Ongoing warming will further expand the freshwater pool and broaden the subtropical pathway, affecting climate, interocean exchange and marine ecosystems.
{"title":"The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean","authors":"Gengxin Chen, Weiqing Han, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Arnold L. Gordon, Toshiaki Shinoda, Nan Rosenbloom, Lei Zhang, Yukio Masumoto","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocean exchange—has experienced the strongest freshening in the Southern Hemisphere since the 1960s. This freshening drives a southward expansion of the Indo-Pacific freshwater pool into the South Indian Ocean, where freshwater has increased by 6.5 ± 0.5% per decade, as indicated by the shrinking 35.3 psu isohaline. Strengthened Indonesian Throughflow and intensified Subtropical Gyre inflow are the primary causes. In the upper ~200 m, freshening follows a new subtropical pathway rather than the usual tropical route. These changes arise from wind shifts linked to the Hadley cell’s poleward expansion and a stronger Indonesian Throughflow, both driven by warm-pool warming. Ongoing warming will further expand the freshwater pool and broaden the subtropical pathway, affecting climate, interocean exchange and marine ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"253 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146102128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-02DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2
Wenyu Li, Hui Lu, Jing M. Chen, Shilong Piao, Trevor F. Keenan, Guofang Miao, Qiang Liu, Zhou Zang, Nan Xu, Jane Liu, Qu Cheng, Han Wang, Rong Wang, Wenjie Ji, Peng Zhu, Congcong Li, Qinchuan Xin, Peng Gong
The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions.
{"title":"Enhanced effect of warming on the leaf-onset date of boreal deciduous broadleaf forest","authors":"Wenyu Li, Hui Lu, Jing M. Chen, Shilong Piao, Trevor F. Keenan, Guofang Miao, Qiang Liu, Zhou Zang, Nan Xu, Jane Liu, Qu Cheng, Han Wang, Rong Wang, Wenjie Ji, Peng Zhu, Congcong Li, Qinchuan Xin, Peng Gong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02528-2","url":null,"abstract":"The leaf-onset date is sensitive to climate warming. It is widely reported that the temperature sensitivity of the leaf-onset date (ST) of deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) may decrease under dormancy-period warming. However, evidence of how boreal-DBF ST may generally change under dormancy-period warming is still lacking. Here, by analysing climate and satellite data, we find that, between 1982–1996 and 1998–2012, 74% of all 0.5° × 0.5° boreal-DBF-containing grid cells with a rise in boreal-DBF dormancy-period temperature exhibited an increase in boreal-DBF ST. We demonstrate that the observed general increase in boreal-DBF ST is largely attributable to a warming-related enhancement in dormancy-period chilling accumulation. Furthermore, we show that phenology models systematically underestimated the magnitude of the observed change in the mean boreal-DBF ST across all boreal-DBF-containing grid cells by a mean of 85%. This study has implications for improving phenology models and understanding the carbon cycle in boreal regions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146102130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-30DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5
Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan C. Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Sabine Fuss
Pathways consistent with global climate objectives typically deploy billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from land-intensive methods such as forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Such large-scale deployment of land-intensive CDR may have negative consequences for biodiversity. Here we assess scenarios across five integrated assessment models and show that scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allocate up to 13% of global areas of high biodiversity importance for land-intensive CDR. These overlaps are distributed unevenly, with higher shares in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the potential conflicts between climate action and biodiversity conservation is crucial. An illustrative analysis shows that if current biodiversity hotspots were protected from land-use change, over half the land allocated for forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the assessed scenarios would be unavailable unless synergies between climate and conservation goals are leveraged. Our analysis also indicates CDR-related biodiversity benefits due to avoided warming.
{"title":"Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal","authors":"Ruben Prütz, Joeri Rogelj, Gaurav Ganti, Jeff Price, Rachel Warren, Nicole Forstenhäusler, Yazhen Wu, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Michael Wögerer, Tamás Krisztin, Petr Havlík, Florian Kraxner, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, Jonathan C. Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou, Florian Humpenöder, Alexander Popp, Sabine Fuss","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02557-5","url":null,"abstract":"Pathways consistent with global climate objectives typically deploy billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from land-intensive methods such as forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Such large-scale deployment of land-intensive CDR may have negative consequences for biodiversity. Here we assess scenarios across five integrated assessment models and show that scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allocate up to 13% of global areas of high biodiversity importance for land-intensive CDR. These overlaps are distributed unevenly, with higher shares in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the potential conflicts between climate action and biodiversity conservation is crucial. An illustrative analysis shows that if current biodiversity hotspots were protected from land-use change, over half the land allocated for forestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in the assessed scenarios would be unavailable unless synergies between climate and conservation goals are leveraged. Our analysis also indicates CDR-related biodiversity benefits due to avoided warming.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"389 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0
Kai Yang, Amelie Meyer, Phuc T. D. Le, Peter G. Strutton, Andrew M. Fischer
{"title":"Global trends in ocean fronts and impacts on the air–sea CO2 flux and chlorophyll concentrations","authors":"Kai Yang, Amelie Meyer, Phuc T. D. Le, Peter G. Strutton, Andrew M. Fischer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02538-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1
Cristina Cattaneo, Soheil Shayegh, Christoph Albert, Maria Alsina-Pujols, Hélène Benveniste, Marion Borderon, Bruno Conte, Christoph Deuster, Joseph-Simon Görlach, Toon Haer, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Michele Ronco, Jacob Schewe, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
{"title":"Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation","authors":"Cristina Cattaneo, Soheil Shayegh, Christoph Albert, Maria Alsina-Pujols, Hélène Benveniste, Marion Borderon, Bruno Conte, Christoph Deuster, Joseph-Simon Görlach, Toon Haer, Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak, Michele Ronco, Jacob Schewe, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02545-1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z
Betsy Black, Xanthe J. Walker, Logan T. Berner, Jacqueline Dean, Scott J. Goetz, Winslow D. Hansen, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Anna C. Talucci, Michelle C. Mack
Climate change is driving more frequent and severe wildfires in northwestern North American boreal forests, initiating shifts from conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest dominance. The resulting forests sequester more carbon and are more resistant to burning. However, when deciduous forests do burn, patterns and drivers of carbon losses are important for predicting long-term carbon storage in boreal forest landscapes. Here we use a combination of field and statistical modelling approaches to quantify carbon combustion losses in burned deciduous boreal forests. On average, deciduous forests lose less than half as much carbon to wildfire combustion as conifer forests per unit burned area. Although deciduous stands are more sensitive to top–down fire weather drivers than conifer stands, carbon loss is always lower than the minimum for conifer stands. This, along with the fire-suppressive effects of deciduous stands, could slow the positive feedback between wildfire and climate in fire-prone boreal landscapes.
{"title":"Increased deciduous tree dominance reduces wildfire carbon losses in boreal forests","authors":"Betsy Black, Xanthe J. Walker, Logan T. Berner, Jacqueline Dean, Scott J. Goetz, Winslow D. Hansen, Stefano Potter, Brendan M. Rogers, Anna C. Talucci, Michelle C. Mack","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02539-z","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is driving more frequent and severe wildfires in northwestern North American boreal forests, initiating shifts from conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest dominance. The resulting forests sequester more carbon and are more resistant to burning. However, when deciduous forests do burn, patterns and drivers of carbon losses are important for predicting long-term carbon storage in boreal forest landscapes. Here we use a combination of field and statistical modelling approaches to quantify carbon combustion losses in burned deciduous boreal forests. On average, deciduous forests lose less than half as much carbon to wildfire combustion as conifer forests per unit burned area. Although deciduous stands are more sensitive to top–down fire weather drivers than conifer stands, carbon loss is always lower than the minimum for conifer stands. This, along with the fire-suppressive effects of deciduous stands, could slow the positive feedback between wildfire and climate in fire-prone boreal landscapes.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-15DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5
Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Luke M. Brander, William W. L. Cheung, Johannes Emmerling, Christopher M. Free, Francesco Granella, Massimo Tavoni, Jasper Verschuur, Katharine Ricke
Oceans provide essential benefits to people and the economy, underpinned by the extent and condition of marine ecosystems and infrastructure—or ‘blue’ capital. However, the impacts of climate change on blue capital have been largely overlooked in influential indicators such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Here we integrate the latest ocean science and economics into a climate-economy model, capturing climate change impacts on corals, mangroves, seaports, fisheries and mariculture to estimate their welfare repercussions at a global scale. Conceptually, this ocean-based SCC (blue SCC) represents a component of the total SCC currently omitted in standard estimates. We estimate the 2020 blue SCC to be US$48 per tCO2 (US$38–70, 25th–75th percentile) with baseline discounting, representing an almost doubling of the SCC estimate from the same model without considering ocean-related impacts. The blue SCC increases to US$168 for a discount rate of 2%.
{"title":"Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon","authors":"Bernardo A. Bastien-Olvera, Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Luke M. Brander, William W. L. Cheung, Johannes Emmerling, Christopher M. Free, Francesco Granella, Massimo Tavoni, Jasper Verschuur, Katharine Ricke","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02533-5","url":null,"abstract":"Oceans provide essential benefits to people and the economy, underpinned by the extent and condition of marine ecosystems and infrastructure—or ‘blue’ capital. However, the impacts of climate change on blue capital have been largely overlooked in influential indicators such as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Here we integrate the latest ocean science and economics into a climate-economy model, capturing climate change impacts on corals, mangroves, seaports, fisheries and mariculture to estimate their welfare repercussions at a global scale. Conceptually, this ocean-based SCC (blue SCC) represents a component of the total SCC currently omitted in standard estimates. We estimate the 2020 blue SCC to be US$48 per tCO2 (US$38–70, 25th–75th percentile) with baseline discounting, representing an almost doubling of the SCC estimate from the same model without considering ocean-related impacts. The blue SCC increases to US$168 for a discount rate of 2%.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"81 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145968785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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