Global suitability and spatial overlap of land-based climate mitigation strategies

Abstract

Land-based mitigation strategies (LBMS) are critical to reducing climate change and will require large areas for their implementation. Yet few studies have considered how and where LBMS either compete for land or could be deployed jointly across the Earth's surface. To assess the opportunity costs of scaling up LBMS, we derived high-resolution estimates of the land suitable for 19 different LBMS, including ecosystem maintenance, ecosystem restoration, carbon-smart agricultural and forestry management, and converting land to novel states. Each 1 km resolution map was derived using the Earth's current geographic and biophysical features without socioeconomic constraints. By overlaying these maps, we estimated 8.56 billion hectares theoretically suitable for LBMS across the Earth. This includes 5.20 Bha where only one of the studied strategies is suitable, typically the strategy that involves maintaining the current ecosystem and the carbon it stores. The other 3.36 Bha is suitable for more than one LBMS, framing the choices society has among which LBMS to implement. The majority of these regions of overlapping LBMS include strategies that conflict with one another, such as the conflict between better management of existing land cover types and restoration-based strategies such as reforestation. At the same time, we identified several agricultural management LBMS that were geographically compatible over large areas, including for example, enhanced chemical weathering and improved plantation rotations. Our analysis presents local stakeholders, communities, and governments with the range of LBMS options, and the opportunity costs associated with scaling up any given LBMS to reduce global climate change.