Exploring rural futures through spatial-temporal migration balance changes in a North-Caucasian rural basin

IF 2.6 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Population Space and Place Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1002/psp.2844
Ana L. Burgos, Anastasia Morozova, Anna Ivolga, Gabriela Cuevas-Garcia
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Abstract

A better understanding of spatial-temporal demographic changes in rural regions can contribute to envision potential rural futures and improve regional planning. This research aimed to analyse the migration balance and its spatial-temporal changes in a rural basin in the Russian Federation's North Caucasus District. The basin was divided into water functional zones to examine the environmental conditions and relate them to possible future anthropogenic pressures and threats to population well-being. Two migration balance indicators (on total population and working-age sector) were calculated in settlements to classify them as attractors, expellers or stable population entities in two census data (2014 and 2020). The spatial-temporal changes were assessed by testing two hypotheses: one related to population concentration and rural depopulation trends; the other focused on working-age migration and workforce availability. Moreover, a foresight tool employed migration balance indicators in 2020 to explore population trends and possible trajectories. Findings revealed that in this rural basin, a small number of settlements served as attractors in the upper functional zone where two urban centres are found, potentially intensifying soil erosion and pollution. In the middle and lower functional zones, most rural and small urban settlements showed unfavored migration balances, leading to population and workforce decline. Negative environmental factors like declining water quality and increased wind erosion could worsen this trend. The migration challenges by functional zones highlight the growing regional disparities. The combination of spatial demography with the basin approach provided improved information to foster collaboration in a shared basin and effectively address undesirable rural outcomes at regional level.

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通过北高加索农村盆地的时空迁移平衡变化探索农村的未来
更好地了解农村地区人口的时空变化有助于展望农村的潜在未来和改进地区规划。本研究旨在分析俄罗斯联邦北高加索地区一个农村盆地的人口迁移平衡及其时空变化。该流域被划分为若干水功能区,以考察环境条件,并将其与未来可能出现的人为压力和对人口福祉的威胁联系起来。根据两次人口普查数据(2014 年和 2020 年),计算了定居点的两个移民平衡指标(总人口和劳动适龄人口),以将其划分为吸引人口、驱逐人口或稳定人口实体。通过检验两个假设,对时空变化进行了评估:一个假设涉及人口集中和农村人口减少趋势;另一个假设侧重于劳动适龄人口迁移和劳动力可用性。此外,一种预测工具采用了 2020 年的移民平衡指标,以探索人口趋势和可能的轨迹。研究结果表明,在这一农村盆地中,在有两个城市中心的上部功能区,少数居住区起到了吸引人口的作用,可能会加剧水土流失和污染。在中层和低层功能区,大多数农村和小型城市定居点呈现出不利的迁移平衡,导致人口和劳动力减少。水质下降和风蚀加剧等负面环境因素可能会加剧这一趋势。各功能区面临的移民挑战凸显了日益扩大的地区差异。空间人口学与流域方法的结合提供了更好的信息,以促进共同流域的合作,并在区域层面有效解决农村的不良后果。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
87
期刊介绍: Population, Space and Place aims to be the leading English-language research journal in the field of geographical population studies. It intends to: - Inform population researchers of the best theoretical and empirical research on topics related to population, space and place - Promote and further enhance the international standing of population research through the exchange of views on what constitutes best research practice - Facilitate debate on issues of policy relevance and encourage the widest possible discussion and dissemination of the applications of research on populations - Review and evaluate the significance of recent research findings and provide an international platform where researchers can discuss the future course of population research
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