What are foresight-designed science fictions made of?

Abstract

This article studies the characteristics of science fiction (SciFi) narratives imagined by authors and produced specifically to serve the prospective approaches of sponsoring organizations. It is based on a study of 38 SciFi narratives designed for actors within the defense sector. For each narrative, the analysis results in the coding of the presence (or absence) of seven attributes considered characteristic of SciFi (or "what makes science fiction science fiction"), based on the work of Istvan Csicsery-Ronay. The results demonstrate the wide diversity of writing strategies employed by authors. Few combinations of the seven attributes recur; nevertheless, without being dominant, some stand out. This study opens discussions on how SciFi conceives of and apprehends the future and novelty. However, this exploration does not seek to precisely qualify these SciFi attributes or the way in which the narratives produced draw on them, nor does it measure the intensity of their use. Additionally, it is limited to the study of a specific sector, that of defense. A certain amount of vigilance is therefore called for in the use of the findings. They do, however, make it possible to propose a practical list of SciFi attributes (and their combinations) deemed useful for prospective purposes—a necessary step to begin opening this black box of how SciFi can be designed for foresight activities and consequently for innovation management.