Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors analysis of regional energy supply and demand in China

Abstract

Under the requirements of the Sustainable Development Goals, the study of China's energy development is an important reference for other countries to plan their energy policies. China is facing the problem of slow energy transformation processes and a continuously widening gap between supply and demand. Using panel data for 2012–2021, this study analyzes the characteristics of energy in China's 30 provinces, and clarifies the problems faced by each province. GM (1,1) model is employed to forecast the level of energy development from 2023 to 2030. The LMDI (Logarithmic mean Divisia index) model is utilized to analyze factors impacting energy demand in each province, according to which the design of energy development direction in each region is completed. The study finds that: (1) Overall, energy supply and demand in China are marked by “high in the west, low in the east” and “low in the west, high in the east,” respectively. The energy structure of each region is continuously optimized, but coal still has a high share. (2) The pace of clean energy development is satisfactory. However, natural gas's increase in share is relatively slight on both supply and demand sides. The substitution effect is not in line with the expectations of the transition policy. (3) Economic and investment effect are major contributing factors to increase energy demand, while the technical effect plays a significant part in reducing energy demand. A few insights from this study are provided for the formulation of transition policies in China.