Maria Dolores Gadea-Rivas , Jesús Gonzalo , Andrey Ramos
{"title":"Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature","authors":"Maria Dolores Gadea-Rivas , Jesús Gonzalo , Andrey Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111992","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":2,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111992"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524004762","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.
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