Economics Letters最新文献

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Why strong regulators move slowly: A global paradox in central bank digital currency adoption 为何强有力的监管机构行动缓慢：央行采用数字货币的全球悖论

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112863

Halil Tunç

Why do countries with strong regulatory institutions progress more slowly in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) development? Using a global panel of 133 countries over 2017–2024, this study examines CBDC progression as an ordinal policy innovation process. Mixed-effects ordered logit estimates show that digital readiness, captured by internet usage, cybersecurity capacity, and digital literacy, is positively associated with more advanced CBDC stages, while regulatory quality exhibits a negative association. High-quality regulators coincide with legal certainty, financial stability, and privacy over rapid experimentation. The findings indicate that CBDC adoption co-varies with regulatory prudence and public trust constraints, not technological feasibility alone.

为什么拥有强大监管机构的国家在央行数字货币（CBDC）发展方面进展较慢？本研究使用2017-2024年间133个国家的全球小组，将CBDC进展作为一个普通的政策创新过程进行了研究。混合效应有序logit估计表明，由互联网使用、网络安全能力和数字素养捕获的数字准备程度与更高级的CBDC阶段呈正相关，而监管质量则呈负相关。高质量的监管机构与法律确定性、金融稳定性和快速实验的隐私相一致。研究结果表明，CBDC的采用与监管审慎性和公众信任约束共同变化，而不仅仅是技术可行性。

引用次数: 0

Comparative statics of uncertainty attitude for rank-dependent subjective expected utility 等级依赖主观期望效用不确定态度的比较统计

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112890

Satoshi Nakada , Hiroyuki Ozaki

This paper considers two criteria for comparative statics of uncertainty attitude in a decision maker (DM), whose preference relation is represented by the rank-dependent subjective expected utility (RDSEU) (Nakada and Ozaki, 2025). We characterize the difference between the uncertainty attitudes of two DMs in terms of the shape of the distortion function.

本文考虑了决策者（DM）不确定性态度比较静力学的两个标准，其偏好关系由等级依赖的主观期望效用（RDSEU）表示（Nakada and Ozaki, 2025）。我们根据畸变函数的形状来描述两个dm的不确定性态度之间的差异。

引用次数: 0

Corporate sustainability reporting directive impact on risk framing and commitment specificity: Evidence from EURO STOXX 50 企业可持续发展报告指令对风险框架和承诺特异性的影响：来自欧洲斯托克50指数的证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112835

Karoline Bax, Sandra Paterlini, Odino Valentini

This paper examines how the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) has altered the tone and credibility of corporate climate disclosures among EURO STOXX 50 firms. Using company sustainability reports from 2020 to 2024, we construct two textual indicators based on ClimateBERT and

{ClimateBERT}_{C T I}

: (i) the Cheap Talk Index (CTI), which measures the prevalence of vague or aspirational language, and (ii) the Opportunity-Risk Index (OppRisk), which captures the balance between opportunity and risk framing (Bingler et al., 2024). Nonparametric comparisons of pre- and post-CSRD periods reveal a statistically significant rise in the CTI and decline in the OppRisk Index, indicating a shift toward increasingly more symbolic yet more risk-aware communication. These findings suggest that regulatory standardization may simultaneously encourage a riskier yet less opportunistic tone and incentivize more the use of generic, non-specific commitment language.

本文研究了欧盟的企业可持续发展报告指令（CSRD）如何改变了欧洲斯托克50指数公司企业气候披露的基调和可信度。利用2020年至2024年的公司可持续发展报告，我们基于ClimateBERT和ClimateBERTCTI构建了两个文本指标：(i)廉价谈话指数（CTI），衡量模糊或抱负语言的流行程度；（ii）机会-风险指数（OppRisk），捕捉机会和风险框架之间的平衡（Bingler等人，2024）。csrd前后的非参数比较显示，CTI在统计上显著上升，而OppRisk指数在下降，这表明沟通越来越倾向于象征性，但更有风险意识。这些发现表明，监管标准化可能同时鼓励一种风险更大但机会主义更少的语气，并鼓励更多地使用通用的、非具体的承诺语言。

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引用次数: 0

Climate change, directed technical change and exhaustible resources 气候变化、定向技术变革和可耗尽资源

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112860

Laurent Cavenaile

Recent decades have seen an increase in proven reserves partially driven by new extraction technologies such as fracking. Such innovation can not only affect extraction rates but also divert resources away from innovation in clean energy. We propose a model of directed technical change with innovation in extraction technologies which is able to replicate the recent trends in proven reserves. Our results highlight new mechanisms that affect the role of carbon taxes and clean R&D subsidies, generating significant implications for the design of climate policy.

近几十年来，已探明储量的增加部分是由水力压裂等新开采技术推动的。这种创新不仅会影响采收率，还会转移清洁能源创新的资源。我们提出了一种直接技术变革的模式，该模式具有开采技术的创新，能够复制已探明储量的最新趋势。我们的研究结果强调了影响碳税和清洁研发补贴作用的新机制，这对气候政策的设计产生了重大影响。

引用次数: 0

BLS payroll revisions: Forecasting recessions 劳工统计局薪资修正：预测衰退

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112859

Rory Quinlan, Roberto Pinheiro

We investigate the behavior of BLS monthly revisions to payroll growth at turning points. We find evidence corroborating claims by former BLS commissioners and market analysts that revisions tend to be larger around turning points. In contrast, evidence that revisions have higher serial correlation around turning points is limited. Similarly, the ability to use revisions to forecast recessions seems limited. Even within-sample, other readily available indicators do a better job at detecting recessions. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of revisions is poor.

我们调查了劳工统计局每月修正工资增长在转折点的行为。我们发现的证据证实了前劳工统计局专员和市场分析师的说法，即在拐点附近，修正幅度往往更大。相比之下，修正在转折点周围具有较高序列相关性的证据是有限的。同样，使用修正数据来预测衰退的能力似乎有限。即使在样本内，其他现成的指标在检测衰退方面也做得更好。修正的样本外预测性能较差。

引用次数: 0

On news blackout 关于新闻封锁

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112891

Liuchun Deng , Yufeng Sun

This paper extends the canonical framework of media bias in Gentzkow and Shapiro (2006) by introducing silence as a reporting option. A media firm may sometimes receive no signal and can strategically withhold reporting to protect its reputation. We show that perfect ex post verification can induce an equilibrium with news blackout, in which the normal media firm stays silent regardless of the signal it receives. In contrast to Gentzkow and Shapiro (2006), greater verification does not necessarily improve information disclosure or welfare: when the firm is sufficiently risk averse or faces sufficiently high reputational costs from issuing an incorrect report, ex post verification can suppress reporting and reduce welfare.

本文通过引入沉默作为报道选项，扩展了根茨科和夏皮罗（2006）的媒体偏见规范框架。媒体公司有时可能没有收到任何信号，因此可以战略性地隐瞒报道以保护其声誉。我们表明，完美的事后验证可以诱导新闻封锁的均衡，在这种均衡中，正常的媒体公司无论接收到什么信号都保持沉默。与根茨科和夏皮罗（2006）相反，更大的核查并不一定会改善信息披露或福利：当公司足够厌恶风险或因发布错误报告而面临足够高的声誉成本时，事后核查可能会抑制报告并减少福利。

引用次数: 0

Converging to mediocrity: Trends in firm-level markups in the United Kingdom 2008–2019 趋同于平庸：2008-2019年英国公司级利润率的趋势

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112851

Diane Coyle , John McHale , Ioannis Bournakis , Jen-Chung Mei

UK manufacturing productivity has declined sharply since 2008, yet little is known about the role of trends in firm-level markups in this context. We estimate firm-level markups using a structural demand approach with revenue shares and industry elasticities, which is complemented by a primal method. Findings indicate a decline in aggregate markups of two to five per cent from 2008 to 2019, driven mainly by within-firm declines. These results suggest that the UK’s productivity slowdown reflects structural deterioration within manufacturing firms rather than reallocation effects.

自2008年以来，英国制造业生产率急剧下降，但在这种情况下，人们对企业层面加价趋势的作用知之甚少。我们使用收入份额和行业弹性的结构性需求方法来估计公司层面的加价，并辅以原始方法。调查结果显示，从2008年到2019年，总体加价下降了2%至5%，主要是由公司内部的下跌推动的。这些结果表明，英国的生产率放缓反映了制造业企业内部的结构性恶化，而不是再分配效应。

引用次数: 0

A flexible measure of voter polarization 选民两极分化的灵活衡量标准

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834

Boris Ginzburg

This paper introduces a definition of ideological polarization that measures dispersion of voter ideology around any central point of interest to a researcher. Applying this framework to U.S. survey data reveals that polarization around right-of-center positions increased gradually, while polarization around left-of-center positions remained stable before rising sharply. I then show how this model of ideological polarization is linked to affective polarization and to increased salience of divisive issues.

本文介绍了意识形态极化的定义，该定义衡量了选民意识形态在任何研究人员感兴趣的中心点周围的分散程度。将这一框架应用到美国的调查数据中可以发现，中间偏右立场的两极分化逐渐加剧，而中间偏左立场的两极分化在急剧上升之前保持稳定。然后，我展示了这种意识形态极化模式是如何与情感极化以及分裂问题的日益突出联系在一起的。

引用次数: 0

Directed technological change, factor adjustment, and GDP: Two decompositions with OECD evidence 指导性技术变革、要素调整与GDP：经合组织证据的两种分解

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857

Christophe Feder , Cristiano Antonelli

We propose a growth-accounting approach based on a time-varying Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that decomposes the total technological effect on GDP into neutral and non-neutral components, separating pure productivity from effects induced by factor-quantity adjustments. Applied to a balanced panel of 32 OECD countries (1994–2019), the method shows that most of the technological impact on GDP arises from non-neutral components operating mainly through adjustments in factor composition and quantities, while the direct productivity contribution is often weak or negative.

我们提出了一种基于时变不变替代弹性（CES）生产函数的增长核算方法，该方法将总技术对GDP的影响分解为中性和非中性成分，将纯生产率与要素数量调整引起的影响分离开来。应用于32个经合组织国家（1994-2019）的平衡面板，该方法表明，技术对GDP的大部分影响来自主要通过要素组成和数量调整而起作用的非中性成分，而直接生产力贡献往往很弱或为负。

引用次数: 0

Moral universalism: Incentivised evidence 道德普遍主义：激励证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856

Tom Lane

There has been a recent surge in interest among economists in moral universalism, the extent to which individuals treat in-groups and out-groups equally in altruism and trust. I provide novel incentivised evidence, adding to the literature which has relied on survey-based measurements of universalism. Using data from dictator and trust games involving 17 identity groups across five dimensions, I find broad consistency with existing studies: universalism varies widely across individuals and is moderately stable across contexts. Relative to previous research, however, I observe weaker stability in universalism across identity dimensions and some differences in its predictor variables.

最近，经济学家对道德普遍主义的兴趣激增，道德普遍主义指的是个人在利他主义和信任中平等对待群体内外的程度。我提供了新颖的激励证据，补充了依赖于基于调查的普遍性测量的文献。通过使用独裁者和信任游戏的数据，我发现了与现有研究的广泛一致性：普遍性在个体之间差异很大，在不同的环境中相对稳定。然而，与之前的研究相比，我观察到在身份维度上普遍主义的稳定性较弱，其预测变量也存在一些差异。

引用次数: 0

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