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Place-based policy and spillovers in the housing market
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112242
Hayoung Kim
In response to soaring housing prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, some governments imposed bans on investor purchases in hot housing markets, raising concerns that such place-based regulations would shift investment demand to adjacent, non-regulated areas. This study examines a ban on rental-purpose purchases in South Korea and finds that the regulation leads to price declines in both regulated and adjacent areas, demonstrating a price spillover effect: an 8.9 % decrease in the regulated area and a 5.2 % decrease in adjacent areas. Moreover, there is no statistical evidence of demand displacement or increased transaction volumes in adjacent areas, while the investor ban is associated with a 25.6 % decline in transaction volumes within the regulated zone. These findings suggest that price spillover effects outweigh displacement effects in heated housing markets, indicating that place-based policies can effectively curb real estate price increases despite concerns about investment demand displacement.
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引用次数: 0
The effect of an anonymous grading reform for male and female university students
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112241
Joakim Jansson , Björn Tyrefors
This paper leverages a university-wide anonymous grading reform and presents evidence that female university students benefit from anonymous grading. Female grades improve by around 0.035 standard deviations relative to males. The effect is driven by smaller classes and male-dominated departments.
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引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization by less developed countries with a large market size: Meager welfare gains?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112240
Adolfo Cristóbal Campoamor
In this paper we present a one-sector Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman model of North-South trade, in order to evaluate the welfare and convergence implications of a gradual, bilateral trade liberalization. Using the same formal setting that generated the “new trade theory” wave, we show that a technologically disadvantaged South may diverge in welfare terms with the North, provided that its population and market size were large enough. Both countries are shown to benefit from trade in absolute terms. The causality mechanism deals with a home-market effect, which reinforces the potential exports of the largest economy, and a simultaneous terms-of-trade effect, which preserves trade balance by reducing the relative prices and wage rate of the largest and poorest country.
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引用次数: 0
Testing fertility rate convergence in the United States
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112243
Liam Keck , Won Sung , Junsoo Lee
The global decline in fertility rates has increasingly captured the attention of policymakers and economists. Previous studies have examined global fertility convergence. While heterogeneous transition paths across regions within a country are observable, the literature has largely overlooked this aspect. This paper addresses whether fertility rates tend to converge within the United States, offering a focused examination of this issue.
{"title":"Testing fertility rate convergence in the United States","authors":"Liam Keck ,&nbsp;Won Sung ,&nbsp;Junsoo Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112243","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112243","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global decline in fertility rates has increasingly captured the attention of policymakers and economists. Previous studies have examined global fertility convergence. While heterogeneous transition paths across regions within a country are observable, the literature has largely overlooked this aspect. This paper addresses whether fertility rates tend to converge within the United States, offering a focused examination of this issue.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 112243"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143463627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The intergenerational impact of pension reforms: How grandmothers’ pension eligibility affects daughters’ fertility
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112239
Pelin Akyol , Kadir Atalay
This paper provides causal evidence on how changes in pension eligibility for women influence maternal grandmothers’ capacity to provide informal childcare and their daughters’ fertility decisions. Leveraging an Australian reform that raised the pension eligibility age by seven years, we show that the reform significantly increased the likelihood of grandmothers delaying retirement, thereby reducing their ability to provide childcare. As a result, we observe a decline in fertility rates among their daughters, particularly in lower-wealth households where financial constraints are more pronounced. Our findings highlight the intergenerational impacts of pension reform, revealing a clear link between grandmothers’ pension eligibility and fertility outcomes in the next generation.
{"title":"The intergenerational impact of pension reforms: How grandmothers’ pension eligibility affects daughters’ fertility","authors":"Pelin Akyol ,&nbsp;Kadir Atalay","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112239","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112239","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides causal evidence on how changes in pension eligibility for women influence maternal grandmothers’ capacity to provide informal childcare and their daughters’ fertility decisions. Leveraging an Australian reform that raised the pension eligibility age by seven years, we show that the reform significantly increased the likelihood of grandmothers delaying retirement, thereby reducing their ability to provide childcare. As a result, we observe a decline in fertility rates among their daughters, particularly in lower-wealth households where financial constraints are more pronounced. Our findings highlight the intergenerational impacts of pension reform, revealing a clear link between grandmothers’ pension eligibility and fertility outcomes in the next generation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 112239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of U.S. and domestic macro data announcements on Canadian asset prices
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112232
Blake DeBruin Martos , Rodrigo Sekkel , Henry Stern , Xu Zhang
We show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both U.S. and domestic macro announcements using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data. We find that Canadian macro announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas U.S. macro announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. While U.S. macro announcements are relatively more important to explain changes in Canadian stock market returns, domestic macro announcements have a larger impact on the CAD/USD spot exchange rate. We discuss the significance of our results for understanding the factors that influence Canadian financial markets.
{"title":"Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of U.S. and domestic macro data announcements on Canadian asset prices","authors":"Blake DeBruin Martos ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Sekkel ,&nbsp;Henry Stern ,&nbsp;Xu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112232","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both U.S. and domestic macro announcements using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data. We find that Canadian macro announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas U.S. macro announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. While U.S. macro announcements are relatively more important to explain changes in Canadian stock market returns, domestic macro announcements have a larger impact on the CAD/USD spot exchange rate. We discuss the significance of our results for understanding the factors that influence Canadian financial markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 112232"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143454505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Endowment, market potential, and spatial dynamics of industrial locations: Evidence from global shipbuilding
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112114
Chun-Yu Ho , Dan Li , Tingting Peng , Zhijia Xiao
We compile a novel panel dataset of ship orders across 30 countries from 1896 to 2020 to examine the evolution of the global shipbuilding industry across time and space. We document a transition in the shipbuilding production location from European countries to Asian countries over the sample period. We further apply a panel error-correction model (ECM) to show that both relative capital endowment and market potential account for this transition in the long run, while market potential exerts a more significant influence on ship production in the short run.
{"title":"Endowment, market potential, and spatial dynamics of industrial locations: Evidence from global shipbuilding","authors":"Chun-Yu Ho ,&nbsp;Dan Li ,&nbsp;Tingting Peng ,&nbsp;Zhijia Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We compile a novel panel dataset of ship orders across 30 countries from 1896 to 2020 to examine the evolution of the global shipbuilding industry across time and space. We document a transition in the shipbuilding production location from European countries to Asian countries over the sample period. We further apply a panel error-correction model (ECM) to show that both relative capital endowment and market potential account for this transition in the long run, while market potential exerts a more significant influence on ship production in the short run.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 112114"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143428621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Knight in shining armor: Ambiguity and gold prices
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112218
Cenk C. Karahan
Knightian uncertainty, or ambiguity, posits that investors prefer known risks over unknown risks, a behavior referred to as ambiguity aversion. This study examines the influence of ambiguity on gold’s behavior as a safe-haven asset, focusing on its impact on the net convenience yield — a key measure of the intrinsic value of holding physical gold. Using a market-based measure of ambiguity rooted in the volatility of probabilities, the analysis finds a consistent and significant positive effect on gold’s convenience yield. The findings remain robust across alternative uncertainty measures, model specifications, and extended time periods, including an ambiguity measure derived from the US Dollar index and daily range spot gold data. This study underscores the superiority of the market-based ambiguity measure over traditional uncertainty proxies and highlights the role of ambiguity aversion in reinforcing gold’s safe-haven status during periods of heightened uncertainty.
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引用次数: 0
Distributed governance and value creation in decentralized autonomous organizations: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112233
Valerio Lo Monaco , Paul Momtaz , Silvio Vismara
Distributed governance mechanisms increase tokenholders value in decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) when decision-making is contested. Using a comprehensive dataset of proposals voted on within blockchain-based DAOs from 2020 to 2024, we exploit a regression discontinuity design on proposals that pass or fail by a close margin around the majority threshold. Local average treatment effects indicate that proposal passage increases DAO token returns by 4.7 % at the margin. Further, a one standard deviation increase in vote participation amplifies this effect by 2.2 %. Proxies for democratization and decentralization also increase the value-creating effect of contested decision-making in DAOs. Our findings contribute to understanding how distributed governance structures create value in digital organizations.
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引用次数: 0
The targeting of economic sanctions
IF 2.1 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Economics Letters
Pub Date : 2025-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112235
Simeon Djankov, Meng Su
We use a comprehensive dataset of economic sanctions over the past 30 years to show that US unilateral sanctions are often off the mark, while United Nations sanctions tend to be well-targeted. Sanctions that target democratic stability and conflict resolution are best correlated with their stated goals.
{"title":"The targeting of economic sanctions","authors":"Simeon Djankov,&nbsp;Meng Su","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112235","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112235","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a comprehensive dataset of economic sanctions over the past 30 years to show that US unilateral sanctions are often off the mark, while United Nations sanctions tend to be well-targeted. Sanctions that target democratic stability and conflict resolution are best correlated with their stated goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"248 ","pages":"Article 112235"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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