Economics Letters最新文献

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Brand switching or behavior change: The 2023 Bud Light boycott’s impact on alcohol purchases 品牌转换或行为改变：2023年抵制百威淡啤对酒类购买的影响

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112822

Aljoscha Janssen

I study how the 2023 Bud Light boycott affected overall alcohol demand using household-level panel data and a set of difference-in-differences designs. Focusing on households that, before April 2023, regularly purchased Bud Light, I find a large drop in Bud Light volume (34%–37%), partial switching into other beer (＋70 to ＋90 ounces per month), and a net decline in total ethanol purchases of about 3–4 fl-oz per month, or roughly 5.5%–7.5% of pre-boycott intake. I detect no compensatory increase in wine or spirits. Scaled nationally, the quantity response is equivalent to roughly 150 million standard drinks per year; using CDC cost-of-illness estimates updated to 2023 dollars implies social savings of about $430 million. A back-of-the-envelope translation suggests an excise-tax equivalent near 0.34% (range 0.23%–0.63%) despite unchanged statutory prices. Identity-driven boycotts can thus reduce harmful consumption via non-price channels, complementing traditional fiscal tools.

我利用家庭层面的面板数据和一组差异中的差异设计，研究了2023年抵制百威淡啤（Bud Light）对整体酒精需求的影响。关注2023年4月之前经常购买百威淡啤的家庭，我发现百威淡啤的销量大幅下降（34%-37%），部分转向其他啤酒（每月+70至+90盎司），乙醇总购买量每月净下降约3-4盎司，约为抵制前的5.5%-7.5%。我没有发现葡萄酒或烈酒的补偿性增加。在全国范围内，数量反应相当于每年大约1.5亿标准饮料；使用更新到2023年的疾病成本估算，意味着社会节省约4.3亿美元。粗略的翻译是，尽管法定价格不变，但消费税仍接近0.34%（范围0.23%-0.63%）。因此，身份驱动的抵制可以通过非价格渠道减少有害消费，补充传统的财政工具。

引用次数: 0

Hedge fund strategies performance: The edge of Omega ratio over conventional metrics 对冲基金策略表现：欧米伽比率相对于传统指标的优势

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112804

Angela-Maria Filip , Bogdan Negrea

We propose analytical expressions for the Omega performance measure based on Gram–Charlier and Edgeworth expansions, incorporating the first five moments of the return distribution. On a sample of 708 U.S.-registered hedge funds, we assess managers’ ability to generate performance across different investment strategies using the analytically derived Omega measures, the empirical Omega, and its main competitor, the Sharpe ratio. Although these metrics yield similar rankings in our sample, we show, within a Monte Carlo simulation framework, that the five-moment Edgeworth approximated Omega is preferable for evaluating under-performing hedge funds, while the five-moment Gram–Charlier approximated Omega provides superior accuracy for well-performing hedge funds.

我们提出了基于Gram-Charlier和Edgeworth展开式的Omega性能度量的解析表达式，其中包含了回报分布的前五个矩。以708家在美国注册的对冲基金为样本，我们使用分析衍生的Omega指标（经验Omega）及其主要竞争对手夏普比率（Sharpe ratio）来评估经理在不同投资策略中产生业绩的能力。虽然这些指标在我们的样本中产生了类似的排名，但我们在蒙特卡洛模拟框架内表明，五时刻Edgeworth近似Omega更适合评估表现不佳的对冲基金，而五时刻gramg - charlier近似Omega为表现良好的对冲基金提供了更高的准确性。

引用次数: 0

Beyond military sales: The market premium on dual-use R&D in the defence sector 军售之外：国防领域军民两用研发的市场溢价

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112820

Marco Albori, Fabrizio Ferriani, Livia Ristuccia

We examine how financial markets value defence firms’ R&D investments in the context of rising European military spending. Using data for listed European and US contractors, we relate equity valuation and expected earnings to R&D intensity and dual-use (civilian and military) activities. We find that higher R&D intensity is linked to stronger equity valuations, especially for firms with substantial dual-use exposure.

我们研究了金融市场如何在欧洲军费开支上升的背景下评估国防公司的研发投资。利用欧洲和美国上市承包商的数据，我们将股票估值和预期收益与研发强度和军民两用活动联系起来。我们发现更高的研发强度与更高的股票估值有关，特别是对于那些拥有大量军民两用敞口的公司。

引用次数: 0

A self-employed pure altruist can donate both time and money 一个自雇的纯利他主义者可以奉献时间和金钱

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112823

Olurotimi O. Soneye

In models of voluntary contributions to public goods, pure altruists are typically held to donate either time or money, but not both. I show that under self-employment, a pure altruist can rationally contribute both time and money when the opportunity cost of time is endogenously linked to productivity. This link segments giving into time-only, money-only, and joint regimes. An implication is that observing joint contributions of time and money does not necessarily imply behavior driven by warm glow.

在自愿为公共物品捐款的模式中，纯粹的利他主义者通常被认为要么贡献时间，要么贡献金钱，但不会两者都贡献。我表明，在个体经营下，当时间的机会成本与生产率内生联系时，纯粹的利他主义者可以理性地贡献时间和金钱。这种联系分为时间型、金钱型和联合型。一个暗示是，观察时间和金钱的共同贡献并不一定意味着行为是由温暖的光驱动的。

引用次数: 0

Government interventions in hybrid information markets 混合信息市场中的政府干预

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112819

Yong Ma, Yiwei Yu

We theoretically examine the role of government intervention in mitigating the adverse market effects caused by hybrid information. Compared to purely fundamental information, hybrid information increases liquidity and trading volume but reduces market efficiency and promotes mispricing. Government interventions, such as mandatory information disclosure and trading against noise, can alleviate efficiency losses and mispricing driven by hybrid information trading; however, trading against noise results in lower liquidity and decreased trading activity. Our findings provide insights into how governments should balance short- and long-term economic policies.

本文从理论上考察了政府干预在缓解混合信息对市场的不利影响中的作用。与纯粹的基本信息相比，混合信息增加了流动性和交易量，但降低了市场效率，并导致了错误定价。政府干预措施，如强制性信息披露和反噪音交易，可以缓解混合信息交易导致的效率损失和错误定价；然而，逆噪声交易导致流动性降低和交易活动减少。我们的研究结果为政府如何平衡短期和长期经济政策提供了见解。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign risk and monetary policy transmission: Evidence from the euro area 主权风险与货币政策传导：来自欧元区的证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112817

Christopher Johns , Aaron Mehrotra , Fabrizio Zampolli

Using panel data from euro area member states, we examine whether the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the degree of sovereign risk. We uncover asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks. In particular, in the presence of elevated sovereign risk, expansionary monetary policy shocks are found to dampen economic activity. We discuss possible explanations for this seemingly puzzling result.

利用欧元区成员国的面板数据，我们检验了货币政策对实体经济的传导是否取决于主权风险的程度。我们发现了货币政策冲击的不对称效应。特别是，在主权风险升高的情况下，扩张性货币政策冲击会抑制经济活动。我们讨论了这个看似令人费解的结果的可能解释。

引用次数: 0

Hysteresis through learning by doing: Estimating endogenous productivity 从做中学到的滞后：内生生产力的估计

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112818

Timothy Watson , Juha Tervala

Learning by doing (LBD), a mechanism whereby productivity depends on past employment, is increasingly used in macroeconomic models to capture hysteresis and endogenous productivity. A key challenge has been calibrating its structural parameters, primarily due to the limited availability of empirical estimates. We estimate a productivity persistence of 0.91 and an elasticity of productivity with respect to lagged employment ranging from 0.13 to 0.30, with seven statistically significant estimates averaging 0.22. These results provide empirically grounded parameters and demonstrate the value of LBD as a tractable approach to capturing endogenous and procyclical productivity dynamics in macroeconomic models.

在实践中学习（LBD）是一种生产力取决于过去就业的机制，越来越多地用于宏观经济模型，以捕捉滞后和内生生产力。一个关键的挑战是校准其结构参数，这主要是由于经验估计的可用性有限。我们估计生产率持续性为0.91，相对于落后就业的生产率弹性范围为0.13至0.30，其中七个统计上显著的估计平均为0.22。这些结果提供了基于经验的参数，并证明了LBD作为一种易于处理的方法在宏观经济模型中捕捉内生和顺周期生产率动态的价值。

引用次数: 0

Measuring the headwinds to Black self-employment 衡量黑人自主创业的阻力

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112788

Ahmet Akyol , Kartik Athreya , Simon Farbman , Urvi Neelakantan

In the US, Black self-employment rates are roughly half the overall rate and half of that predicted by a standard life cycle model of occupational choice. Even the total elimination of credit access from the model leaves predicted Black self-employment 50% above actual rates. Given that the literature has documented a variety of barriers to self-employment, it is useful to have a measure of their total effect. The contribution of this paper is to demonstrate that a surprisingly simple measure — a constant 20% wedge on self-employment productivity — quantitatively captures the total effect of these headwinds over the entire life-cycle.

在美国，黑人自雇率大约是总体比率的一半，是职业选择标准生命周期模型预测的一半。即使从模型中完全消除信贷渠道，预测的黑人自雇率也比实际水平高出50%。鉴于文献已经记录了各种各样的自主创业障碍，衡量它们的总影响是有用的。这篇论文的贡献在于证明了一个非常简单的测量方法——个体经营生产率恒定的20%楔形——定量地捕捉了这些逆风在整个生命周期中的总影响。

引用次数: 0

Central bank independence and stock price crash risk 央行独立性和股价崩盘风险

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112775

Byoungho Choi

When a central bank lacks independence and is subject to political influence, pressure to lower interest rates intensifies. Consequently, markets come to expect rate cuts or a slower pace of increases. These sticky expectations can trigger stock price crash risk when rates rise. We develop a simple model in which investors respond asymmetrically to interest rate signals and show that this asymmetry is amplified by biased investors. Evidence from 22 non-Eurozone countries supports this prediction. When the policy rate increases, countries with low central bank independence (CBI) exhibit larger, more positive monetary policy surprises than high CBI countries, implying biased beliefs under low CBI. Stock markets are more overvalued in low CBI countries than in high CBI countries, and this overvaluation is sensitive to policy rate hikes. In low CBI countries, rate hikes result in pronounced return declines and elevated crash risk, whereas high CBI countries exhibit no such pattern.

当央行缺乏独立性并受到政治影响时，降低利率的压力就会加剧。因此，市场开始预期降息或加息速度放缓。当利率上升时，这些粘性预期可能引发股价崩盘风险。我们建立了一个简单的模型，其中投资者对利率信号的反应是不对称的，并表明这种不对称被有偏见的投资者放大了。来自22个非欧元区国家的证据支持这一预测。当政策利率上升时，低央行独立性的国家比高央行独立性的国家表现出更大、更积极的货币政策意外，这意味着低央行独立性下的偏见信念。与CBI高的国家相比，低CBI国家的股市更容易被高估，而这种高估对政策加息很敏感。在低CBI国家，加息导致明显的回报下降和更高的崩溃风险，而高CBI国家则没有这种模式。

引用次数: 0

Dark trading and informational efficiency around macroeconomic news arrivals: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury market 宏观经济消息到来前后的暗交易和信息效率：来自美国国债市场的证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112808

Hai Lin , Rui Qiao

This letter investigates whether scheduled macroeconomic news announcements influence the market dark trading activities and how dark trading affects market efficiency around the news arrivals. We provide empirical evidence that the workup trading activities increase significantly after scheduled news arrivals, and the impact of news weakens after five minutes. We also find that dark trading decreases informational efficiency. Additionally, we find that the U.S. Treasury market incorporates new information very quickly, and the market efficiency is improved after news announcements.

这封信调查了预定的宏观经济新闻公告是否会影响市场暗交易活动，以及暗交易如何影响消息到达前后的市场效率。我们提供的实证证据表明，在预定新闻到达后，后续交易活动显著增加，新闻的影响在5分钟后减弱。我们还发现，暗交易降低了信息效率。此外，我们发现美国国债市场吸收新信息的速度非常快，新闻发布后市场效率得到了提高。

引用次数: 0

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