Geopolitical tension and shipping network disruption: Analysis of the Red Sea crisis on container port calls

Abstract

The Red Sea crisis is unprecedented since the Suez Crisis of 1967 and Yom Kippur War of 1973. The crisis brings to fore attention on geopolitical tension and shipping network disruption. The study applies the Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm to investigate shipping line behavior and its impact on container ports. The focus is on the Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean trade routes. Market structure considers the distribution of ports-of-call, while conduct analyses shipping line service organization and vessel deployment strategies. Performance considers the aspects of efficiency, market growth and market share for weekly shipping service calls at container ports. The focus is on shipping services as they form the basis of shipping networks. Data mining is performed to draw information from three sources including AIS information. Results show that while the Cape Route is the alternative to the Suez Canal, longer sailing distance saw shipping lines deploy additional vessels to maintain frequency of port-calls. Adjustments to port-calls reveal transshipment containers handled by Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea ports to be relatively “footloose”. Implications to ports from shipping network operation, resilience strategies, and port choice are offered.