Mapping the Characteristics of Respiratory Infectious Disease Epidemics in China Based on the Baidu Index from November 2022 to January 2023.

Abstract

Introduction: Infectious diseases pose a significant global health and economic burden, underscoring the critical need for precise predictive models. The Baidu index provides enhanced real-time surveillance capabilities that augment traditional systems.

Methods: Baidu search engine data on the keyword "fever" were extracted from 255 cities in China from November 2022 to January 2023. Onset and peak dates for influenza epidemics were identified by testing various criteria that combined thresholds and consecutive days.

Results: The most effective scenario for indicating epidemic commencement involved a 90th percentile threshold exceeded for seven consecutive days, minimizing false starts. Peak detection was optimized using a 7-day moving average, balancing stability and precision.

Discussion: The use of internet search data, such as the Baidu index, significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of disease surveillance models. This innovative approach supports faster public health interventions and demonstrates its potential for enhancing epidemic monitoring and response efforts.