Analyzing the seasonality of tuberculosis case notifications in the UK, 2000-2018.

IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1017/S095026882400092X
Lisa Glaser, Ross Harris, Tehreem Mohiyuddin, Jennifer A Davidson, Sharon Cox, Colin N J Campbell
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Abstract

Globally, there is seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, yet the biological and behavioural or social factors driving TB seasonality differ across countries. Understanding season-specific risk factors that may be specific to the UK could help shape future decision-making for TB control. We conducted a time-series analysis using data from 152,424 UK TB notifications between 2000 and 2018. Notifications were aggregated by year, month, and socio-demographic covariates, and negative binomial regression models fitted to the aggregate data. For each covariate, we calculated the size of the seasonal effect as the incidence risk ratio (IRR) for the peak versus the trough months within the year and the timing of the peak, whilst accounting for the overall trend. There was strong evidence for seasonality (p < 0.0001) with an IRR of 1.27 (95% CI 1.23-1.30). The peak was estimated to occur at the beginning of May. Significant differences in seasonal amplitude were identified across age groups, ethnicity, site of disease, latitude and, for those born abroad, time since entry to the UK. The smaller amplitude in older adults, and greater amplitude among South Asians and people who recently entered the UK may indicate the role of latent TB reactivation and vitamin D deficiency in driving seasonality.

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分析 2000-2018 年英国结核病病例通报的季节性。
在全球范围内,肺结核(TB)发病率存在季节性变化,但各国肺结核季节性的生物、行为或社会因素却不尽相同。了解英国特有的季节性风险因素有助于制定未来的结核病控制决策。我们利用 2000 年至 2018 年间 152,424 份英国结核病通知中的数据进行了时间序列分析。我们按年份、月份和社会人口协变量对通知进行了汇总,并对汇总数据拟合了负二项回归模型。对于每个协变量,我们计算了季节性效应的大小,即年内高峰月与低谷月的发病风险比(IRR)以及高峰的时间,同时考虑了总体趋势。有强有力的证据表明存在季节性(p < 0.0001),IRR 为 1.27(95% CI 1.23-1.30)。估计峰值出现在 5 月初。不同年龄组、种族、发病部位、纬度以及出生在国外的人进入英国后的时间在季节性振幅上存在显著差异。老年人的振幅较小,南亚人和新近进入英国的人的振幅较大,这可能表明潜伏肺结核再活化和维生素 D 缺乏在推动季节性方面发挥了作用。
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来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
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