Respiratory syncytial virus infection notification trends and interpretation of the reported case data, 2018-2021, Japan.

Abstract

In Japan, as elsewhere, the COVID-19 pandemic affected the notification trends of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection. Here, we describe the epidemiological trends of RSV cases among children reported during 2018-2021 in Japan, based on the national surveillance system. Compared to 2018 and 2019, 2020 saw an unprecedented decrease in RSV notifications per sentinel site. However, 2021 experienced an unseasonably early and high peak in week 28 (peak week in 2018 and 2019: week 37) with a large resurgence in notifications, nationwide and across regions. Regarding age, compared to 2018 and 2019, the number and proportion of cases aged 2, 3, and ≥4-years increased substantially in 2021 but the number of cases aged <1 year decreased slightly. Furthermore, in 2021, the ratio of notifications per site from outpatient clinics to hospitals increased, suggesting a proportionate increase in clinically milder case diagnoses. Notably, RSV-attributed deaths from vital statistics also dropped substantially in 2020 and rebounded in 2021, but were fewer than in 2018 or 2019. While RSV incidence likely declined in 2020 (possibly from COVID-19 countermeasures) and increased in 2021, notifications in 2021 appeared to be associated with milder presentations. Given unpredictable RSV epidemiology, continuous monitoring and pluralistic assessments are imperative.