Airline industry equities under external uncertainty shocks

Abstract

We gauge the impact of news and other relevant external uncertainties facing airline firms via an equity market lens. Using local projections, we establish that rising investors’ fear shocks have long-lasting negative effects on airline industry equity returns, while increasing geopolitical, climate policy, and fuel cost uncertainties have comparatively short-lived impacts. Our results are robust to several alternative model specifications, including a pre-pandemic subsample. Based on our findings, we provide a promising avenue for future research in airline financial management.