Modelling the complete life cycle of an arctic copepod reveals complex trade-offs between concurrent life cycle strategies

Abstract

Calanus hyperboreus is a large-bodied, biomass dominant species that performs a crucial ecosystem energy transfer by converting the spring phytoplankton bloom into lipid reserves that fuel the higher trophic levels of the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) pelagic ecosystem, including the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalena glacialis). Given that the GSL, the southernmost core habitat of C. hyperboreus, is undergoing rapid warming, developing a population model allows us to synthesize existing knowledge of the species, and to examine the species response to environmental conditions. To simulate the multi-year life cycle in the northwest GSL, model equations are implemented for ingestion, assimilation, respiration, egg production, stage development, mortality, and vertical migration behaviors including dormancy entry and exit. The 1-D particle-based model predicts the evolution of individual stage, structural mass, lipid, age, sex, abundance, and egg production, as well as the seasonal evolution of the population structure in the northwest GSL. Individual lipid-based thresholds inform the timing of ontogenetic vertical migration. Life cycle targets defined from a literature review are used to guide model parameterization and assess its performance. The simulated population structure, phenology, and size at stage are generally consistent with observations. Under 10 years of repeat year forcing, the model simulates a quasi-stable overwintering population composed of late stages CIV, CV and CVI. Observations suggest that stage CIV is the first overwintering stage in the GSL, and point to the occurrence of iteroparous females. Using the model, the relative success of diverse dormancy and reproductive phenotypes are explored. Second reproduction females reproduce earlier in winter than first reproduction females, with implications for the ability of the new generation to match the spring bloom and accumulate sufficient lipid to overwinter as stage CIV. Without iteroparity, the time window of reproduction contracts and the population is reduced, underscoring the role of a flexible multi-year life cycle in population success.