The Intradecadal Periodic Signals in GPS Displacements and Their Possible Climate Change Influences

Abstract

Intradecadal changes in GPS displacements have garnered significant attention within the research community; however, the existence of relatively stable intradecadal signals, as well as their characteristics and excitation sources, remains to be further confirmed. This study aims to comprehensively investigate this topic by reviewing relevant existing studies and analyzing over 50 diverse datasets. We first reanalyze two different GPS datasets, and based on those reanalyzed results, we unequivocally validate the existence of at least two intradecadal signals in GPS displacements, a significant ~ 5.9 yr periodic signal (with 4.2 ± 0.95 mm excitation amplitude and a Y_2,2 spatial pattern) as some previous studies suggested and a relatively weak ~ 4.8–5.4 yr signal, and we explain why some previous studies cannot detect the ~ 5.9 yr signal or find its actual spatial pattern. Reevaluating the data from the surface air pressure records (and related records), loading displacements, hydrological records, global mean sea level (GMSL), global mean surface temperature (GMST), and various climate indices demonstrate that there are indeed similar 5–7 yr oscillations as previously suggested, but they have clear differences with the ~ 5.9 yr GPS signal. Additionally, the presence of a ~ 4.7–5.3 yr signal in the in situ hydrological records, as well as a ~ 4.5–5.7 yr signal in surface air pressure, contributes to the ~ 4.8–5.4 yr signal observed in the GPS data, thereby influencing the identification of the 5.9 yr signal. The contrasting outcomes derived from hydrological models and in situ hydrological records indicate that the low-frequency components of the hydrological models lack reliability. As for the precise physical mechanism underlying the ~ 5.9 yr GPS signal, although we have eliminated climate changes as potential sources, it is still difficult to deduce a physical mechanism that could reasonably explain it.