Mpox in UK households: estimating secondary attack rates and factors associated with transmission, May-November 2022.

Abstract

We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of mpox among UK household contacts and determine factors associated with transmission to inform public health management of contacts, during the global outbreak in 2022. Information was collected via NHS and public health services and included age, gender, place of residence, setting, and type of contact. Aggregate information was summarized for the UK. Record level data was combined for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with transmission. The secondary attack rate among UK household mpox contacts was 4% (60/1 526). Sexual contact with the index case was associated with a 11-fold increase in adjusted odds of becoming a case in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (95% CI 5.5-22, p < 0.001). Household contacts outside of London had increased odds compared to London residents (adjusted OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.6-5.4, p < 0.001), while female contacts had reduced odds of becoming a case (aOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.15-0.95). We found a low overall secondary attack rate among household mpox contacts with strong evidence of increased transmission risk associated with sexual contact. This evidence will inform the risk assessment of contacts and support prioritization of those with close intimate contact for follow up.