Investigating risk factors associated with injury severity in highway crashes: A hybrid approach integrating two-step cluster analysis and latent class ordered regression model with covariates

Abstract

Highway crashes are responsible for a significant number of severe and fatal injuries drawing considerable attention from transportation authorities and safety researchers. This paper aims to investigate the unobserved heterogeneous effects of various risk factors, such as pre-crash circumstances, environmental and road conditions, vehicle-involved information, and driver attributes on injury severities. Our methodology uses a hybrid approach that combines two-step cluster analysis and latent class ordered regression model with covariates. The proposed approach extends traditional latent class model by elucidating potential relationships among predictors, covariates, and outcomes. A cross-sectional crash data covering a period of over five years (2011–2016) was obtained via the Dutch crash registration database for modeling injury severity outcomes. The results reveal substantial and statistically significant differences in injury severity between two latent classes. Moreover, we identify road lighting, time of crash, road surface conditions, weather, and season as covariates influencing class membership prediction. Factors such as high speed, alcohol involvement, frontal collision points, and older driver demographics increase the probability of serious injury and facility across all cases analyzed. Additionally, we observe notable heterogeneity effects between the two classes regarding temporal characteristics, the number and type of vehicles involved, as well as driver gender. Our findings provide specific and valuable insights into injury severity outcomes, which can inform the formulation of targeted safety countermeasures and regulatory strategies for traffic policies and relevant agencies.