Megan L. Feddern, Rebecca Shaftel, Erik R. Schoen, Curry J. Cunningham, Brendan M. Connors, Benjamin A. Staton, Al von Finster, Zachary Liller, Vanessa R. von Biela, Katherine G. Howard
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate-driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well-being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns-per-spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock-recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well-documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.
期刊介绍:
Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal committed to shaping the future and addressing the world's most pressing challenges, including sustainability, climate change, environmental protection, food and water safety, and global health.
Dedicated to fostering a profound understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and offering innovative solutions, the journal publishes a diverse range of content, including primary research articles, technical advances, research reviews, reports, opinions, perspectives, commentaries, and letters. Starting with the 2024 volume, Global Change Biology will transition to an online-only format, enhancing accessibility and contributing to the evolution of scholarly communication.