Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

IF 10.8 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Global Change Biology Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI:10.1111/gcb.17508
Megan L. Feddern, Rebecca Shaftel, Erik R. Schoen, Curry J. Cunningham, Brendan M. Connors, Benjamin A. Staton, Al von Finster, Zachary Liller, Vanessa R. von Biela, Katherine G. Howard
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Abstract

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate-driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well-being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns-per-spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock-recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well-documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

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体型和早期海洋条件促使大鳞大麻哈鱼的生产力在整个北纬生态系统中发生变化
对于北纬生态系统来说,将气候变化的影响与影响水生物种种群动态的其他压力因素区分开来尤为迫切,因为在北纬地区,气候变暖的速度快于全球平均水平。育空-库斯科克维姆(YK)地区的大鳞大麻哈鱼(Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)位于其物种分布范围的北部,其数量正在经历长期下降,导致渔业关闭,并对土著居民和当地社区的福祉造成影响。这些衰退与物理(如温度、溪流)和生物(如体型、竞争)条件有关,但这些驱动因素对不同种群生产力的相对影响以及鲑鱼与环境的关系在不同流域之间的差异仍存在不确定性。为了填补这些知识空白,我们使用贝叶斯分层种群-招募模型估算了海洋和淡水环境指标、体型和竞争指数对长江流域 26 个大鳞大麻哈鱼种群生产力(每产卵者的成鱼回归量)的影响。在大多数种群中,生产率随着产卵者体型变小以及第一年出海时海面温度冬冷夏热而下降。生产力下降还与秋季最大日溪流高于平均水平、幼鱼外迁前海冰覆盖面积增加以及海洋竞争者数量增多有关,但这些影响的强度在不同种群之间存在差异。产卵洄游期间的最高日溪流温度与生产力呈非线性关系,在主干河流温度超过阈值的年份,生产力下降。这些结果首次证明,在将气候因素考虑在内的情况下,有据可查的YK大鳞大麻哈鱼体型下降与种群生产力下降有关。
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来源期刊
Global Change Biology
Global Change Biology 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
21.50
自引率
5.20%
发文量
497
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: Global Change Biology is an environmental change journal committed to shaping the future and addressing the world's most pressing challenges, including sustainability, climate change, environmental protection, food and water safety, and global health. Dedicated to fostering a profound understanding of the impacts of global change on biological systems and offering innovative solutions, the journal publishes a diverse range of content, including primary research articles, technical advances, research reviews, reports, opinions, perspectives, commentaries, and letters. Starting with the 2024 volume, Global Change Biology will transition to an online-only format, enhancing accessibility and contributing to the evolution of scholarly communication.
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