Analysis of postdisaster economy using high-resolution disaster and economy simulations.

Abstract

We present an integrated framework that utilizes high-resolution seamless simulations of disasters and national economies for estimating the economic impacts of disasters. The framework consists of three components: a physics-based simulator to simulate the disaster and estimate the response of the infrastructure; a tool that estimates the losses suffered by the infrastructure based on its response; and an agent-based economic model (ABEM) that simulates the national economy considering the infrastructure damage and postdisaster decisions of the economic entities. The ABEM used in the framework has been implemented in a high-performance computing environment to simulate large economies at 1:1 scale. Furthermore, it has been calibrated to the Japanese economy using publicly available macroeconomic data and validated to the Japanese economy under the business-as-usual scenario. We demonstrate the integrated framework by simulating a potential Nankai-trough earthquake disaster and estimating its impacts on the Japanese economy. The seismic response of 1.8 million buildings of the Osaka-bay area has been estimated using a large-scale earthquake disaster simulator and corresponding repair costs are estimated using the Performance Assessment Calculation Tool. As per our estimates, repair costs amount to approximately 15 trillion Yen. Considering the investments made by impacted households and firms toward recovery, the postdisaster economy is simulated using the ABEM for 5 years under two recovery scenarios. Industrial production is expected to recover in three quarters whereas 10-13 quarters will be required to finish all the repair work.