Effect of Soil Moisture on Future Heatwaves Over Eastern China: Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations

Abstract

Soil moisture deficiencies exacerbate heatwaves through soil moisture-temperature feedback, an effect that is expected to intensify with climate change, resulting in critical impacts on society and ecosystems. This study aims to investigate the evolving soil moisture-heatwave relationship over eastern China in the future, using a convection-permitting (CP, ∼4 km) regional climate model (RCM). The CP-RCM model simulates historical (1998–2007) and future (2070–2099) climates over eastern China, with three pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments conducted under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate a substantial increase in heatwave frequency (HWF) and magnitude (HWM) over eastern China, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest HWF (up to 23 days) is expected in South China (SC), and the largest HWM (up to 3.25°C) is expected in Loess Plateau (LP) and North China Plain (NCP), indicating a pronounced future risk of heatwave in the region. Antecedent soil moisture exhibits a negative correlation with heatwave indices (HWM and HWF) in most areas of eastern China, suggesting its role in mitigating heatwaves. Quantile regression analysis shows that antecedent soil moisture exerts a stronger effect on the upper quantile of the HWF/HWM than on the lower quantile. With global warming, the amplifying effect due to soil moisture deficiency on future heatwaves is expected to expand spatially and become more pronounced. Increased soil moisture control on heatwaves can be attributed to reduced energy limitation and intensified water limitation. A comprehensive investigation across five sub-regions reveals the role of various soil moisture regimes in modulating heatwaves over eastern China.