A Statistical Model of CME Acceleration

Abstract

An algorithm for automatic approximation of the time dependence x(t) is built for the observed coordinate of the coronal mass ejection (CME) front from the admissible starting point to the first appearance in the field of view of the LASCO coronagraph and further, up to a heliocentric distance of ~25 solar radii (R_S). In the region from the starting point to the first appearance of the CME, two sections are assumed, with uniform (impulsive) acceleration and with uniform motion; then, the motion is approximated by observations. At the beginning of the approximation, either the CME start time is found through the appearance of certain frequencies of radio emissions (RSTN data) and type II and IV radio emissions (sequence characteristics are determined by machine learning), or the start time is determined by averaging over the allowable takeoff area; then the polynomial-ballistic model is optimized. The first and second derivatives x(t) determine the speed and acceleration of the CME at any point of its trajectory. Such an algorithm is necessary to obtain the most accurate kinematic characteristics of CMEs, which can allow one to study the physical, spatial, and temporal relationships between flares and CMEs in all their diversity. Widely used approximation techniques simplify the real CME trajectories x(t), thereby possibly discarding important features of the CME kinematics and flare development in the posteruptive phase. The algorithm was trained and tested on 17 solar flares and associated CMEs, which are known for their powerful proton events with proton energies greater than 300 MeV. The rate of the first occurrence of CMEs turned out to be different from the average rate given in the LASCO catalog, which is important for estimating the energy of flares and CMEs. In 7 out of 17 events, there was acceleration only in the impulsive phase (and then deceleration), while acceleration in the impulsive and posteruptive phases occurred in 10 events. In 4 out of 17 events, CME velocities greater than 2000 km/s were reached at a distance of 20R_S. The accuracy of determining the kinematic characteristics of CMEs can be improved by using additional observations, for example, SDO AIA in the September 10, 2017 event.