Whether higher risk indicates severe loss in the flood disaster assessment: A comparative analysis in the Hubei province of central China

Abstract

Study region

Hubei province, Yangtze River Basin, Central China

Study focus

Risk and loss analysis constitutes a critical element of flood disaster management. Nevertheless, the relationship between risk and loss has been infrequently examined in the literature. Here we developed a comparative analysis framework for assessing flood risk and loss in Hubei Province. The risk model incorporates 22 indicators in terms of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response & recovery capability. Indicator weights were determined through a combination of objective and subjective weighting methods based on the game theory. Flood risk and loss levels were classified using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey correlation analysis respectively.

New hydrological insights

Annual risk and loss maps exhibit a spatial pattern of higher levels in the eastern regions and lower levels in the western regions. However, the relationship between risk and loss was not as well as expected during designated flood periods. While regions impacted by disasters typically demonstrated higher risk levels, the risk in the regions unaffected by flood disasters appeared to be overestimated. By analyzing flood risk and loss across various temporal scales, this research contributes a novel perspective for the evaluation of flood risk models.