Unveiling mid-century conservation priorities: Co-occurrence of biodiversity, climate change exposure, and carbon storage in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China

Abstract

The global challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change necessitate the implementation of integrated conservation strategies. A forward-looking framework is necessary to reconcile climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts with biodiversity goals, supporting effective long-term planning and management of protected areas (PAs) network. This study develops a comprehensive approach to identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation until 2050, integrating assessments of species distributions, climate change exposure and carbon storage under distinct shared socioeconomic pathways. The Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB) in China serves as a case study. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM) method, we predicted the distributions of 435 threatened terrestrial vertebrate species and plants. We then mapped their richness in the MLYRB. Distance-based climate velocity analysis was performed to identify climate change coldspots and hotspots. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and InVEST model were coupled to simulate carbon storage changes. Systematic conservation planning tool, Zonation, was used to prioritize species conservation hotspots. By examining the co-occurrence of these hotspots with climate change coldspots/hotspots and areas of high carbon storage, conservation priorities for the MLYRB were revealed. Our findings indicate that 18.27–24.94 % of the MLYRB risks over 20 % species richness declines by 2050 under various scenarios, while increases over 10 % are projected for only 0.81–1.75 % of the area. Co-occurrence analysis highlights significant associations, such as a 32.26 % overlap between species conservation hotspots and climate change hotspots in SSP1–2.6. Particularly noteworthy is the substantial co-occurrence (57.93–59.50 % across scenarios) between areas maximizing species conservation and carbon storage. The identified conservation priority areas, covering 41.95 % of the MLYRB (441554 km²), hold potential for long-term species conservation, climate resilience, and nature-based climate solutions by 2050. However, only 6.08 % of these priorities currently benefit from protection. These results offer valuable guidance for region-specific landscape management and conservation policy aligned with international goals. The presented methodology provides a broader application, serving as a valuable resource for prioritizing conservation efforts in other regions integrating biodiversity, climate change adaptation, and mitigation goals.