Energy-water-carbon system management in response to climate change in China under uncertainties (2026–2050)

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107957

Yanan Chen , Guohe Huang , Yanyan Liu , Bin Luo , S.G. Wang , Y.P. Li , Xiaoyang Li

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Abstract

Climate change has seriously affected the resource utilization of the energy-water-carbon system, while the system carbon emissions continuously act on climate change. Given the interaction between the two, there is an urgent need to facilitate the rational allocation of system resources to realize the positive feedback between climate change and energy-water-carbon system development. In this study, an interval stochastic fuzzy integer programming (ISFIP) model is developed to support resource planning and management of the energy-water-carbon system in response to climate change in China. The developed model has advantages in characterizing the complexity and uncertainty of the energy-water-carbon system and providing optimal system decision-making options under multiple climate change scenarios. The results show that the SSP126-NZE scenario power system would reduce carbon emissions by 16.23 %, air pollutant emissions by 19.31 %, water consumption by 30.96 %, and increase economic benefits by 10.97 %, respectively, compared to the SSP585-STEPS baseline scenario.

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不确定条件下中国应对气候变化的能源-水-碳系统管理（2026-2050 年）

气候变化严重影响着能源-水-碳系统的资源利用，而系统的碳排放又不断作用于气候变化。鉴于二者之间的相互作用，迫切需要促进系统资源的合理配置，以实现气候变化与能源-水-碳系统发展之间的正反馈。本研究建立了区间随机模糊整数程序设计（ISFIP）模型，以支持中国应对气候变化的能源-水-碳系统资源规划和管理。所开发的模型在描述能源-水-碳系统的复杂性和不确定性以及提供多种气候变化情景下的最优系统决策方案方面具有优势。结果表明，与 SSP585-STEPS 基线情景相比，SSP126-NZE 情景电力系统将分别减少碳排放 16.23%、大气污染物排放 19.31%、水消耗 30.96%、经济效益增加 10.97%。

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.