Maintaining reliability in a 100% decarbonized power sector: The interrelated role of flexible resources

IF 9.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Energy Policy Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114365
Olympe Tournier , Pierre-Olivier Pineau
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Abstract

Reliability will remain a key requirement for decarbonized power sectors, but also a concern with the high penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE). The traditional approach for reliability is by producing enough energy and adapting rapidly to changes in load with the dispatch of fossil fuel power plants, especially natural gas power plants. However, this will have to evolve as decarbonization progresses. Can various flexibility resources such as transmission, storage and demand response provide the same reliability benefits? This paper uses a detailed, capacity expansion and hourly operation model to investigate the possibility and the cost of reaching different levels of planning reserve margins (PRM), in the multi-regional context of the North American Northeast. We find that while it is possible to entirely avoid natural gas power plants or nuclear ones to obtain high PRM, it would come at a very high cost and would require high levels of transmission, storage and demand response. We also detail why these three flexibility resources are needed in combination. The implications for energy policies are significant: in order for power system's cost to remain reasonable, reliability must count on some carbon-neutral natural gas or nuclear generation, along with interties with neighboring systems, storage and high levels of demand response.
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在 100% 去碳化的电力行业中保持可靠性:灵活资源的相互关联作用
可靠性仍将是电力行业去碳化的关键要求,但随着可再生能源(VRE)的高度普及,可靠性也将成为一个令人担忧的问题。提高可靠性的传统方法是生产足够的能源,并通过调度化石燃料发电厂(尤其是天然气发电厂)来迅速适应负荷的变化。然而,随着去碳化进程的推进,这种方法也将发生变化。输电、储能和需求响应等各种灵活性资源能否提供同样的可靠性优势?本文使用了一个详细的容量扩展和每小时运行模型,以北美东北部的多区域为背景,研究了达到不同水平的规划储备裕度(PRM)的可能性和成本。我们发现,虽然可以完全避免天然气发电厂或核电厂,以获得较高的计划储备裕度,但成本非常高,而且需要高水平的输电、储能和需求响应。我们还详细说明了为什么需要将这三种灵活性资源结合起来。这对能源政策的影响是巨大的:为了使电力系统的成本保持合理,可靠性必须依靠一些碳中和的天然气或核能发电,以及与邻近系统的互联、储能和高水平的需求响应。
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来源期刊
Energy Policy
Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学
CiteScore
17.30
自引率
5.60%
发文量
540
审稿时长
7.9 months
期刊介绍: Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.
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