Forest sector models for tropical countries - A case study of Colombia

IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Forest Policy and Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI:10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103341
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Abstract

The evolution of Forest Sector Models (FSMs) since the 1960s has marked a significant advancement in forest economics and policy analysis. However, this development is limited to North America and Europe's nations; tropical countries, crucial for biodiversity, carbon storage, and deforestation, face a notable scarcity of FSMs, often attributed to the limited and fragmented nature of their forest sector data. The importance of unprocessed wood and sources of wood supply are also distinct in tropical countries. We address these issues by introducing a comprehensive framework to build FSMs tailored for tropical countries whose national accounts are aligned with United Nations standards. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework by constructing the Colombian Forest Sector Model (CFSM), a structural econometric partial equilibrium model. The CFSM includes five markets grouped in two market sub-models: one for unprocessed wood (firewood and industrial wood) linked to a forest plantations simulator, and other for manufactured wood products (wood, furniture, and pulp & paper). The model consists of 32 behavioral equations, explaining supply, consumption, exports and imports, and prices for consumption and trade for each market, plus 18 summation and market-clearing identities. Model estimation is based on 41 years (1975–2015) of data collected, organized, and transformed through a meticulous process. Rigorous validation confirms the CFSM's robustness and reliability. The model's application is demonstrated by estimating wood availability and impacts under several plantation expansion scenarios, and the monetary effects of expanding Colombia's wood products industry. The paper opens new frontiers of research in FSMs.
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热带国家森林部门模型--哥伦比亚案例研究
自 20 世纪 60 年代以来,森林部门模型(FSM)的发展标志着森林经济学和政策分析的重大进步。然而,这一发展仅限于北美和欧洲国家;而对生物多样性、碳储存和森林砍伐至关重要的热带国家却面临着森林部门模型明显匮乏的问题,这通常归因于其森林部门数据的有限性和分散性。热带国家未加工木材的重要性和木材供应来源也各不相同。为了解决这些问题,我们引入了一个综合框架,为国民核算符合联合国标准的热带国家量身打造森林可持续管理机制。我们通过构建哥伦比亚林业部门模型(CFSM)--一个结构计量经济学局部均衡模型--来证明我们的框架的适用性。CFSM 包括五个市场,分为两个市场子模型:一个是与森林种植模拟器相关联的未加工木材市场(木柴和工业木材),另一个是木制品市场(木材、家具和纸浆&amp;纸张)。该模型由 32 个行为方程组成,解释每个市场的供应、消费、进出口、消费价格和贸易价格,外加 18 个求和及市场清算特性。模型估算基于 41 年(1975-2015 年)的数据收集、整理和转换过程。严格的验证证实了 CFSM 的稳健性和可靠性。通过估算几种种植园扩张方案下的木材可用性和影响,以及哥伦比亚木制品行业扩张的货币效应,证明了该模型的应用价值。本文开辟了森林可持续管理研究的新领域。
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来源期刊
Forest Policy and Economics
Forest Policy and Economics 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
9.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
148
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Forest Policy and Economics is a leading scientific journal that publishes peer-reviewed policy and economics research relating to forests, forested landscapes, forest-related industries, and other forest-relevant land uses. It also welcomes contributions from other social sciences and humanities perspectives that make clear theoretical, conceptual and methodological contributions to the existing state-of-the-art literature on forests and related land use systems. These disciplines include, but are not limited to, sociology, anthropology, human geography, history, jurisprudence, planning, development studies, and psychology research on forests. Forest Policy and Economics is global in scope and publishes multiple article types of high scientific standard. Acceptance for publication is subject to a double-blind peer-review process.
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