Evaluation of probability distribution methods for flood frequency analysis in the Jhelum Basin of North-Western Himalayas, India

Abstract

The Kashmir Valley has frequently endured devastating floods, presenting significant challenges for flood management due to unpredictable flood magnitudes and limited pre-disaster preparedness. A major difficulty in addressing these challenges is the lack of reliable flood frequency analysis (FFA) for effective planning and mitigation. This study seeks to overcome these issues by employing a rigorous quantitative analysis of annual peak discharge data over a 51-year period (1971–2021). One key challenge was the presence of low outliers, which could compromise the integrity of the data. To address this, the Multiple Grubbs-Beck test was applied to remove these outliers before conducting FFA. The study's original achievement lies in its application of multiple distribution models which include Gumbel (EV1), Generalized Extreme Variations (GEV), Log-Normal, Log Pearson III (LP III), Gamma and Normal distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests, including Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling (AD), and Chi-square at the 5 % significance level, along with visualization techniques such as Probability plots (PP), Quantile plots (QQ), and Probabilistic distribution (PD) graphs, were used to identify the most suitable distribution methods. The Log Pearson Type III (LP-III) was identified as the best fit for the Sangam gauge site (Upper Jhelum), the gamma distribution for Ram Munshibagh (Middle Jhelum), and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and LP-III for Asham (Lower Jhelum). For Sangam, the estimated discharges for 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250-year return periods were 549.63, 1028.43, 1471.34, 2907.64, 3758.92, 4338.61, 4790.99, and 5167.23 cumecs, respectively, using LP-III. For Ram Munshibagh, the discharges were 602.13, 911.03, 1107.04, 1512.12, 1674.35, 1767.0, 1831.87, and 1881.74 cumecs using the gamma distribution. For Asham, the discharges were 685.8, 998.0, 1193.3, 1593.2, 1750.6, 1839.4, 1901.0, and 1948.0 cumecs using the GEV distribution. The findings indicate that the Jhelum River cannot accommodate excess discharge for return periods of 5 years or more, underscoring the need for enhanced flood management strategies.