Seung Woo Han , Dong Hoon Kwak , Geon-woong Byeon , Jong Hun Woo
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Volatile and cyclical shipbuilding demand has consistently been a risk for the shipbuilding industry. This study analyzes the shipping market from a macro perspective and proposes a model capable of long-term shipbuilding demand forecasting. Initially, a system dynamics model representing the shipping market based on maritime economy theory is presented, comprising five main components: external variables, the freight market, shipyards, fleet productivity, and demolition. Based on this system dynamics model, a case study was conducted using LNG carrier market data. The prediction results of the model were compared with seven other time series forecasting models, demonstrating its validity. Finally, scenario analyses evaluated the impact of changes in cargo transport demand, shipyard supply capacity, and carbon regulations. The findings indicated that while increases in transport demand and stricter regulations enhance the amplitude of the shipbuilding demand cycle, increased shipyard supply capacity mitigates these cycles, raising both the period and trough of the cycle.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering provides a forum for engineers and scientists from a wide range of disciplines to present and discuss various phenomena in the utilization and preservation of ocean environment. Without being limited by the traditional categorization, it is encouraged to present advanced technology development and scientific research, as long as they are aimed for more and better human engagement with ocean environment. Topics include, but not limited to: marine hydrodynamics; structural mechanics; marine propulsion system; design methodology & practice; production technology; system dynamics & control; marine equipment technology; materials science; underwater acoustics; ocean remote sensing; and information technology related to ship and marine systems; ocean energy systems; marine environmental engineering; maritime safety engineering; polar & arctic engineering; coastal & port engineering; subsea engineering; and specialized watercraft engineering.