Forecasting shipbuilding demand using shipping market modeling: A case study of LNGC

IF 2.3 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MARINE International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2024.100616
Seung Woo Han , Dong Hoon Kwak , Geon-woong Byeon , Jong Hun Woo
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Abstract

Volatile and cyclical shipbuilding demand has consistently been a risk for the shipbuilding industry. This study analyzes the shipping market from a macro perspective and proposes a model capable of long-term shipbuilding demand forecasting. Initially, a system dynamics model representing the shipping market based on maritime economy theory is presented, comprising five main components: external variables, the freight market, shipyards, fleet productivity, and demolition. Based on this system dynamics model, a case study was conducted using LNG carrier market data. The prediction results of the model were compared with seven other time series forecasting models, demonstrating its validity. Finally, scenario analyses evaluated the impact of changes in cargo transport demand, shipyard supply capacity, and carbon regulations. The findings indicated that while increases in transport demand and stricter regulations enhance the amplitude of the shipbuilding demand cycle, increased shipyard supply capacity mitigates these cycles, raising both the period and trough of the cycle.
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利用航运市场模型预测造船需求:LNGC 案例研究
造船需求的波动性和周期性一直是造船业面临的风险。本研究从宏观角度分析了航运市场,并提出了一个能够预测长期造船需求的模型。首先,以海洋经济理论为基础,提出了一个代表航运市场的系统动力学模型,由五个主要部分组成:外部变量、货运市场、造船厂、船队生产力和拆解。基于该系统动力学模型,利用液化天然气运输船市场数据进行了案例研究。该模型的预测结果与其他七个时间序列预测模型进行了比较,证明了其有效性。最后,情景分析评估了货物运输需求、船厂供应能力和碳法规变化的影响。研究结果表明,虽然运输需求的增加和更严格的法规提高了造船需求周期的幅度,但造船厂供应能力的提高缓解了这些周期,提高了周期的周期和低谷。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
4.50%
发文量
62
审稿时长
12 months
期刊介绍: International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering provides a forum for engineers and scientists from a wide range of disciplines to present and discuss various phenomena in the utilization and preservation of ocean environment. Without being limited by the traditional categorization, it is encouraged to present advanced technology development and scientific research, as long as they are aimed for more and better human engagement with ocean environment. Topics include, but not limited to: marine hydrodynamics; structural mechanics; marine propulsion system; design methodology & practice; production technology; system dynamics & control; marine equipment technology; materials science; underwater acoustics; ocean remote sensing; and information technology related to ship and marine systems; ocean energy systems; marine environmental engineering; maritime safety engineering; polar & arctic engineering; coastal & port engineering; subsea engineering; and specialized watercraft engineering.
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