Assessing evacuation risks in prominent historical mosques: An integrated quantitative and qualitative approach via the HM-ERI framework

Abstract

Historical mosques, with their unique architectural features and high occupant densities, pose distinct challenges for safe and efficient evacuation. This study introduces the Historical Mosque Evacuation Risk Index (HM-ERI), a novel and comprehensive framework specifically designed to assess evacuation risks in these culturally significant structures. The HM-ERI model integrates three quantitative criteria derived from agent-based simulations and seventeen qualitative criteria assessed through on-site evaluations, generating two dimensionless risk scores: HM-ERI_QN (quantitative risk) and HM-ERI_QL (qualitative risk).

Analysis

of 12 prominent 15th and 16th century mosques in Turkey revealed a spectrum of evacuation risk levels. The mosques' HM-ERI_QN values ranged from 0.27 (low risk) to 0.80 (high risk) in the range of 0–1, indicating variations in potential congestion and evacuation efficiency based on simulated total evacuation times ranging from 2 min 46.3 s to 8 min 18.5 s. HM-ERI_QL values, reflecting the severity of qualitative factors on a 0–1 scale such as the lack of alternative exits, improper placement of shoe racks, complex building layouts, and limited emergency preparedness, fell between 0.46 and 0.73, indicating moderate to high risks.

By integrating expert judgment and utilizing data from both simulations and on-site observations, the HM-ERI framework provides a practical tool for identifying high-risk historical mosques and informing targeted interventions to enhance evacuation safety. This research contributes to developing enhanced evacuation standards for these culturally significant structures, enabling improved safety evaluations and guiding effective preservation strategies that prioritize human life and cultural heritage.