International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

Building community resilience: Development and validation of a school-based framework for post-disaster child mental health support 建立社区复原力：制定和验证以学校为基础的灾后儿童心理健康支助框架

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106056

Naru Fukuchi , Nahoko Harada , Wataru Shoji , Chizu Konno , Eiji Suzuki

Disasters significantly impact children's mental health, yet professional services remain severely limited in disaster-affected areas. Non-professional (non-specialist) psychosocial interventions delivered by teachers show promise, but systematic evidence on implementation requirements and effectiveness remains limited. In this study, we carry out implementation-focused systematic evidence synthesis to examine non-professional psychosocial interventions for disaster-affected children, and develop a comprehensive implementation framework for school-based settings. We conducted systematic evidence synthesis across PubMed, Scopus, and PsycINFO (2000-2024). Seven studies encompassing 7134 children (ages 8–17 years) met inclusion criteria. Teachers were primary implementers (85.7%). Non-professional interventions demonstrated sustained improvements in adaptive functioning maintained for three years, whereas symptom improvements showed shorter duration. These sustained advantages likely resulted from teachers' ongoing presence enabling continued skill reinforcement through established relationships—mechanisms unavailable in time-limited professional interventions. Successful implementation required structured training (12–20 h), ongoing professional supervision, and systematic cultural adaptation. The consistent 12–20 h training requirement marks a practical threshold where teachers acquire core competencies (psychological first aid, trauma response, group facilitation) without extensive clinical education, while supervision ensures quality. Implementation barriers included educational system constraints (rigid curricula, teacher workload), resource limitations (insufficient professional backup, inadequate materials), and cultural adaptation challenges. As a central outcome of this synthesis, we developed the School-Based Community Resilience Implementation Model (SB-CRIM), a comprehensive evidence-based framework for integrating psychosocial support into educational systems and disaster preparedness planning while addressing the identified implementation barriers.

灾害严重影响儿童的心理健康，但受灾地区的专业服务仍然严重有限。教师提供的非专业（非专业）心理社会干预显示出希望，但关于实施要求和有效性的系统证据仍然有限。在本研究中，我们进行了以实施为重点的系统证据综合，以检验受灾儿童的非专业心理社会干预措施，并制定了一个以学校为基础的全面实施框架。我们对PubMed、Scopus和PsycINFO（2000-2024）进行了系统的证据合成。包括7134名儿童（8-17岁）的7项研究符合纳入标准。教师是主要的实施者（85.7%）。非专业干预显示适应功能的持续改善维持了三年，而症状改善的持续时间较短。这些持续的优势可能源于教师的持续存在，通过建立的关系（在时间有限的专业干预中无法获得的机制）使技能得到持续强化。成功的实施需要结构化的培训（12-20小时），持续的专业监督和系统的文化适应。一致的12-20小时培训要求标志着教师在没有广泛临床教育的情况下获得核心能力（心理急救、创伤反应、小组促进）的实际门槛，同时监督确保质量。实施障碍包括教育系统约束（严格的课程、教师工作量）、资源限制（专业后备不足、材料不足）和文化适应挑战。作为这一综合研究的核心成果，我们开发了基于学校的社区恢复力实施模型（SB-CRIM），这是一个综合的基于证据的框架，用于将社会心理支持纳入教育系统和备灾规划，同时解决已确定的实施障碍。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the building façade vulnerability to multiple hazards 评估建筑物对多种灾害的脆弱性

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106032

Rossella Marmo, Mariacarla Fraiese, Veronica Vitiello, Roberto Castelluccio

Building envelope plays a critical role in ensuring the overall functionality, energy efficiency, and safety of buildings. Due to the exposure to climatic conditions and extreme natural events, building envelope components deteriorate faster than other building components. Beyond long-term performance issues, degraded façade components pose a significant risk to their surroundings directly related to the façade's vulnerability: the more vulnerable its components, the greater the probability of their detachment, and consequently, the higher the risk to people.

Assessing this Building Risk, as a consequence of the façade vulnerability, should represent a primary concern in ensuring urban safety. However, this topic is not thoroughly explored in the scientific literature; moreover, methodologies to evaluate the façade vulnerability to multiple hazards are missing. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a methodology for assessing building façade vulnerability to multiple hazards. The study determines the propensity of façade components to suffer damage when exposed to hazards by combining their two primary drivers of damage: technical characteristics and degradation. Both drivers are evaluated individually, then combined using a quantitative formula to assess the façade vulnerability.

The methodology is tested on existing façades located in the Campi Flegrei area, a significant multi-hazard context. The methodology provides a structured approach to vulnerability assessment that can be adapted to new risk scenarios and contexts, ensuring replicability and flexibility. Results contribute to conceptualising and implementing the RETURN project virtual testbeds, enabling the development of “what-if” scenarios to support risk-informed adaptation planning and Disaster Risk Management strategies.

建筑围护结构在保证建筑的整体功能、能源效率和安全性方面起着至关重要的作用。由于暴露在气候条件和极端自然事件中，建筑围护结构构件比其他建筑构件退化得更快。除了长期性能问题外，退化的farade组件对与其脆弱性直接相关的环境构成重大风险：组件越脆弱，其脱离的可能性越大，因此对人类的风险也就越大。评估这种建筑风险，作为立面脆弱性的结果，应该是确保城市安全的主要关注点。然而，这个话题并没有在科学文献中得到深入的探讨；此外，还缺乏评估农业对多种灾害脆弱性的方法。为了填补这一空白，本文提出了一种评估建筑立面对多种灾害脆弱性的方法。该研究通过结合造成损害的两个主要驱动因素：技术特性和退化，确定了farade组件在暴露于危险时遭受损害的倾向。这两个驱动因素分别进行评估，然后结合使用定量公式来评估farade脆弱性。该方法在Campi Flegrei地区现有的农场上进行了测试，这是一个重要的多危害环境。该方法提供了一种结构化的脆弱性评估方法，可以适应新的风险情景和背景，确保可复制性和灵活性。结果有助于概念化和实施回归项目虚拟测试平台，从而能够开发“假设”情景，以支持风险知情的适应规划和灾害风险管理战略。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of digitalization on disaster response in local government: Quasi-experimental evidence from smart city infrastructure in China 数字化对地方政府灾害响应的影响：来自中国智慧城市基础设施的准实验证据

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106043

Nanhu Gao , Zhen Lin , Bin Yang

In the context of global climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme natural disasters, enhancing local governments' disaster response capacity has become a critical challenge worldwide. This study conducted a quasi-natural experiment to examine the effect of smart city (SC) infrastructure, as a key manifestation of local government digitalization, on disaster response times by leveraging China's national SC pilot policy. Using panel data from 283 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2020, this study applied a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) approach to identify causal effects. The results show that the SC infrastructure shortens disaster response times by an average of 12.5%. Mechanism analyses reveal that this effect operates through the improved information transmission efficiency, optimized resource allocation, and enhanced interdepartmental collaboration. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the effect is stronger in sub-provincial cities and eastern regions. This study provided quasi-experimental evidence for the role of digital governance in emergency management and offered policy implications for scaling the SC initiatives in developing countries.

在全球气候变化和极端自然灾害日益频繁的背景下，提高地方政府的灾害应对能力已成为全球面临的严峻挑战。本研究通过一项准自然实验，利用中国国家智能城市试点政策，考察作为地方政府数字化的关键表现形式的智能城市基础设施对灾害响应时间的影响。本研究利用2010 - 2020年283个地级市的面板数据，采用多期差异中差异（DID）方法来确定因果关系。结果表明，SC基础设施将灾害响应时间平均缩短了12.5%。机制分析表明，这种效应是通过提高信息传递效率、优化资源配置、加强部门间协作来实现的。异质性分析表明，副省级城市和东部地区的影响更强。本研究为数字治理在应急管理中的作用提供了准实验证据，并为发展中国家扩大SC倡议提供了政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Community flood resilience factors; A community's perspective 社区抗洪因子；社区的视角

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106051

Laidlaw Sophie, Percival Sarah, Kiriakoulakis Konstadinos

Efforts to reduce flood impacts have shifted towards more dynamic, resilience-based approaches, that encompass community make up and physical impacts. Despite this, there is a lack of understanding and the tools necessary to truly comprehend and measure flood resilience in detail at a community level. Previous community flood resilience models and the corresponding factors do not include the experiences and understanding (lay knowledge) of at-risk community members and hence what in reality makes a community resilient to flooding. A community flood resilience survey was designed and distributed to assess current understanding of community flood resilience, presenting a pre-determined list of 20 community flood resilience factors for consultation. Findings were split into three target groups, members of community flood groups (people who lobby for change in their community), those who have experienced flooding and those who have not experienced flooding. Opinions on community flood resilience differed between the groups, particularly its definition and the applicability of certain social factors (i.e. sense of community or community groups). However, there was consensus on the inclusion of physical factors, implying community flood resilience is still inherently considered physical in nature. Results from this study highlighted the importance of including community members in the analysis of community flood resilience and the design of subsequent community flood resilience frameworks. Ensuring lay knowledge is utilised and providing a community specific flood resilience framework with both established (i.e. land use) and novel (i.e. insurance rates) factors, designed not only for key stakeholders, but also community use.

减少洪水影响的努力已经转向更有活力、更有弹性的方法，包括社区构成和物理影响。尽管如此，在社区层面上，人们仍然缺乏真正理解和详细衡量洪水恢复能力的必要理解和工具。以前的社区洪水恢复力模型和相应的因素没有包括面临风险的社区成员的经验和理解（外行知识），因此在现实中，社区对洪水的恢复力是什么。设计并分发了一项社区洪水恢复力调查，以评估目前对社区洪水恢复力的理解，并提出了一份预先确定的20个社区洪水恢复力因素清单，以供咨询。调查结果被分为三个目标群体，社区洪水团体的成员（游说改变社区的人），经历过洪水的人和没有经历过洪水的人。不同群体对社区抗洪能力的看法存在差异，特别是其定义和某些社会因素（即社区意识或社区群体）的适用性。然而，人们对包括物理因素的共识是，这意味着社区洪水恢复力本质上仍然被认为是物理性质的。本研究的结果强调了将社区成员纳入社区洪水恢复力分析和随后社区洪水恢复力框架设计的重要性。确保外行知识得到利用，并提供一个社区特定的洪水恢复框架，既有既定因素（如土地使用），也有新的因素（如保险费率），不仅为关键利益相关者设计，也为社区使用设计。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the value of information in pricing insurance against multiple hazards: the case of earthquake and liquefaction 评估多重灾害保险定价信息的价值：以地震和液化为例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106052

Susanna Keith , Enrico Tubaldi , Marco de Angelis , Svetlana Stripajova , John Douglas

Pricing of natural hazard insurance requires robust estimates of potential losses from multiple interacting hazards, even in the presence of significant uncertainty in key risk parameters such as site conditions and structural characteristics. This paper presents a framework for quantifying the Value of Information (VoI) provided by targeted, site-specific data to reduce the uncertainty in multi-hazard earthquake and liquefaction risk assessments and to support more informed insurance decision-making. The proposed framework builds on a loss assessment methodology that integrates earthquake shaking and liquefaction hazards, capturing their combined effects on structural vulnerability and expected losses, and applies principles of expected utility theory and decision-making to identify optimal insurance pricing for both clients and insurer.

The approach is demonstrated through a case study in New Zealand, a seismically active country where variability in ground conditions, particularly Vs30, strongly influences seismic risk. A probabilistic graphical model captures conditional dependencies between shaking, liquefaction, and structural damage, enabling realistic estimation of expected losses. VoI is computed separately for insurers and clients, accounting for premium structures and the financial consequences of incorrect insurance decisions. Results show that VoI is greatest in high-risk, high-uncertainty contexts, particularly where low stiffness soils amplify liquefaction-related losses. While data collection consistently benefits clients, insurers may experience diminishing or even negative VoI as clients adopt more conservative insurance strategies.

The VoI framework offers practical insights into balancing data acquisition costs against financial benefits, supporting resilient and equitable insurance systems in regions exposed to natural hazards.

自然灾害保险的定价需要对多种相互作用的灾害的潜在损失进行可靠的估计，即使在场地条件和结构特征等关键风险参数存在重大不确定性的情况下也是如此。本文提出了一个量化信息价值（VoI）的框架，该框架由有针对性的、特定地点的数据提供，以减少多灾害地震和液化风险评估中的不确定性，并支持更明智的保险决策。提出的框架建立在损失评估方法的基础上，该方法整合了地震和液化危害，捕捉了它们对结构脆弱性和预期损失的综合影响，并应用预期效用理论和决策原则，为客户和保险公司确定最佳保险定价。该方法通过新西兰的一个案例研究进行了验证。新西兰是一个地震活跃的国家，其地面条件的变化，特别是Vs30，强烈影响地震风险。概率图形模型捕获了震动、液化和结构损坏之间的条件依赖关系，从而能够对预期损失进行现实的估计。VoI分别为保险公司和客户计算，考虑保费结构和错误保险决策的财务后果。结果表明，在高风险、高不确定性的情况下，特别是在低刚度土壤放大液化相关损失的情况下，VoI最大。虽然数据收集始终有利于客户，但随着客户采取更保守的保险策略，保险公司可能会经历减少甚至负VoI。VoI框架为平衡数据获取成本与经济效益提供了实际见解，支持易受自然灾害影响地区建立有弹性和公平的保险体系。

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引用次数: 0

Flood risk management in historic centres: A scalable typological framework integrating GIS, BIM and VR 历史中心的洪水风险管理：集成GIS、BIM和VR的可扩展类型框架

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106031

Mariella De Fino , Gabriele Bernardini , Caterina Alighieri , Riccardo Tavolare , Enrico Quagliarini , Fabio Fatiguso

The increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disasters underscore the need for reliable and adaptable risk management solutions, especially in complex environments such as historic city centres, where structural and functional characteristics pose unique challenges. To address this issue, the paper proposes a workflow that integrates GIS, BIM, and VR technologies to enable seamless informative integration and effective assessment of key factors related to hazard, building vulnerability, and user exposure in flood prone historic towns. The approach adopts a multi-scalar logic – connecting the macro-scale analysis of the urban built environment with meso-scale modelling of selected blocks and open spaces – alongside a typological framework that abstracts real-case features into representative, idealized clusters. The objective is to build a digital ecosystem capable of identifying priority areas and scenarios based on construction characteristics and occupancy patterns and serving as a foundation for more specialized studies in hazard modelling, evacuation simulation, and virtual training and communication. The proposed workflow is tested on a historic centre in Central Italy exposed to fluvial flood risk, demonstrating its potential to integrate and operationalize data and processes that have typically been addressed separately in the current practice. Ultimately, the aim is to support a guided and accessible technology transfer to technical and administrative stakeholders involved in risk decision-making.

与气候有关的灾害日益频繁和严重，凸显了对可靠和适应性强的风险管理解决方案的需求，特别是在结构和功能特征构成独特挑战的历史城市中心等复杂环境中。为了解决这一问题，本文提出了一个集成GIS、BIM和VR技术的工作流程，以实现与洪水易感历史城镇的危害、建筑脆弱性和用户暴露相关的关键因素的无缝信息集成和有效评估。该方法采用多标量逻辑，将城市建筑环境的宏观分析与选定街区和开放空间的中尺度建模联系起来，同时采用类型学框架，将真实案例的特征抽象为具有代表性的理想化集群。目标是建立一个数字生态系统，能够根据建筑特征和占用模式确定优先区域和场景，并作为灾害建模、疏散模拟、虚拟培训和通信等更专业研究的基础。提议的工作流程在意大利中部一个面临河流洪水风险的历史中心进行了测试，证明了其整合和操作数据和流程的潜力，而这些数据和流程在目前的实践中通常是单独处理的。最终的目标是支持向参与风险决策的技术和行政利益攸关方进行有指导和可获得的技术转让。

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引用次数: 0

The world's largest saddle dam at risk: Multisensor geohazard analysis and downstream impacts 世界上最大的鞍状坝处于危险之中：多传感器地质灾害分析和下游影响

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106045

Hesham El-Askary , Hesham Morgan , Surendra Maharjan , Ali Elgendy , Wenzhao Li , Rejoice Thomas , Austin Madson , Cyril Rakovski

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Saddle Dam, which holds approximately 89% of the main reservoir's live storage, is one of the largest and most critical auxiliary dams globally; its construction on Ethiopia's Blue Nile has consequently raised significant regional and international concerns regarding potential environmental impacts and geohazard risks. This study presents a comprehensive risk assessment of the GERD Saddle Dam by integrating high-resolution satellite data (GRACE, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, WorldView-3), hydrological modeling (SWAT), Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI), geospatial analysis, and advanced statistical techniques. The results highlight critical structural vulnerabilities, including groundwater infiltration estimated at approximately 41 ± 6.2 billion cubic meters during reservoir filling, differential settlement of up to 40 mm, and emerging seepage and leakage pathways. Moreover, anomalous seismicity spatially aligned with pre-existing fault systems has been observed, with Poisson regression analysis indicating increased regional seismicity potentially linked to volcanic activity and the reservoir impoundment process, underscoring the dam's transboundary geohazard risks. A dam-breach simulation reveals catastrophic downstream flood risks extending to Sudan and Egypt, with potential impacts on millions. These findings underscore the urgent need for international risk monitoring frameworks and contribute to advancing global dam safety protocols and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 9, 11, and 13).

大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝（GERD）鞍坝拥有约89%的主水库活水，是全球最大和最重要的辅助水坝之一；它在埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上的建设引起了地区和国际对潜在环境影响和地质灾害风险的关注。本研究通过整合高分辨率卫星数据（GRACE、Sentinel-1、Sentinel-2、WorldView-3）、水文建模（SWAT）、持续散射体干涉测量（PSI）、地理空间分析和先进的统计技术，对GERD马鞍坝进行了全面的风险评估。结果强调了关键的结构脆弱性，包括水库填充期间地下水入渗估计约为41±62亿立方米，高达40毫米的差异沉降，以及新出现的渗流和泄漏途径。此外，观测到的异常地震活动在空间上与先前存在的断层系统一致，泊松回归分析表明，区域地震活动的增加可能与火山活动和水库蓄水过程有关，强调了大坝的跨境地质灾害风险。一项大坝决口模拟显示，灾难性的下游洪水风险延伸至苏丹和埃及，可能影响数百万人。这些发现强调了建立国际风险监测框架的迫切需要，并有助于推进全球大坝安全协议和可持续发展目标（可持续发展目标9、11和13）。

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引用次数: 0

Complex network-based detection and forecasting of high-intensity tropical cyclones 基于复杂网络的高强度热带气旋探测与预报

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106030

Ziyu Jiang , Kaiwen Li , Ming Wang , Kai Liu , Shraddha Gupta , Jürgen Kurths

Accurate detection and forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks using limited climate variables and data is challenging. Here, we propose an innovative time-evolving complex network approach for detecting and forecasting high-intensity tropical cyclones (HITCs) based on mean sea level pressure and relative vorticity at 850 hPa. This approach enables us to successfully reproduce the tracks of HITCs of the Western North Pacific, achieving a mean detection rate exceeding 0.8 and a track error below 120 km in most cases. When applied to forecast 2023 HITC tracks using medium-range weather forecast data, we achieve a detection rate above 0.65 and a track error of less than 260 km for forecasts within 5 days. Our results highlight the strong potential of network-based approaches as data-integrative, physically interpretable statistical tools for HITCs detection and short-term forecasting, leveraging complex climate connectivity to enhance predictive skill.

利用有限的气候变量和数据准确探测和预报热带气旋路径是一项挑战。本文提出了一种基于850 hPa平均海平面气压和相对涡度的高强度热带气旋（HITCs）探测和预报的创新时变复杂网络方法。这种方法使我们能够成功地再现北太平洋西部hitc的轨迹，在大多数情况下，平均检测率超过0.8，轨迹误差低于120公里。我们利用中期天气预报资料预测2023年HITC轨道，在5天内的预报中，探测率达到0.65以上，轨道误差小于260公里。我们的研究结果突出了基于网络的方法作为数据整合、物理可解释的统计工具的巨大潜力，用于hitc检测和短期预测，利用复杂的气候连通性来提高预测技能。

引用次数: 0

Assessing the temporal qualities of indirect impacts of flooding on traffic 评估水浸对交通的间接影响的时间性质

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106035

Aditya Rebally , Caterina Valeo , Saeid Saidi , Jianxun (Jennifer) He

The temporal nature of flood impacts on traffic is assessed using the flood model HEC-RAS and the micro-scale traffic model SUMO. The 2013 flood in Calgary, Canada is used to demonstrate the direct, indirect and cascading impacts, and identify short and medium scale temporal patterns. The addition of rainfall is considered through nine different scenarios before, during and after the flood. A penalty model is proposed that realistically models the indirect impact to traffic. For all static and dynamic simulations, the flood increases time delay roughly 12–65%, increases distances travelled by 30–45%. With the addition of rain, the delays increase further by 2–15% and distances by roughly 14%, respectively. The delay across these simulations experienced increases in the range of 10–68% (average 24%) with the inclusion of the penalty. A theoretical concept that identifies indirect and cascading impacts of flood and rainfall on transportation in flood impact assessments is proposed.

利用洪水模型HEC-RAS和微尺度交通模型SUMO评估了洪水对交通影响的时间性质。以2013年加拿大卡尔加里洪水为例，分析了直接、间接和级联影响，并确定了中短期尺度的时间模式。在洪水之前、期间和之后，通过九种不同的情景来考虑降雨量的增加。提出了一个能够真实地模拟对交通间接影响的处罚模型。对于所有静态和动态模拟，洪水增加了大约12-65%的时间延迟，增加了30-45%的行进距离。加上下雨，延误时间分别增加了2-15%，距离增加了大约14%。在这些模拟中，包括惩罚在内的延迟增加了10-68%（平均24%）。在洪水影响评价中，提出了识别洪水和降雨对交通的间接和级联影响的理论概念。

引用次数: 0

Time poverty and disaster readiness: How routine constraints shape hurricane preparation 时间贫乏和灾难准备：常规限制如何影响飓风准备

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106037

Yan Wang , Ziyi Guo , Christopher McCarty

Disaster warnings offer critical lead time for preparation, but how people use the time is shaped by their daily routines and demands. Although prior research has examined psychological and demographic vulnerabilities in disaster preparedness, the impact of time-poverty – especially during back-to-back disasters – has received little attention. As a result, some groups may experience heightened time stress, lack sufficient time to prepare, or even face increased safety risks. Thus, we conducted an in-depth investigation of time poverty and time use in hurricane preparation, focusing on Florida communities affected by at least one of the consecutive 2024 hurricanes, Helene and Milton. Using geographically targeted surveys from 1,069 hurricane-affected residents, we examined how time poverty, employment status, family responsibilities, and socio-economic vulnerability influenced time use, perceived time insufficiency, and time stress. Latent Class Analysis identified five routine time-poverty profiles, including Young Time-Balanced Workers, Time-Rich Nonworkers, Affluent Professionals, Working Overloaded Caregivers, and Strained Low-Income Caregivers. Moderated regression analyses revealed that time-poor caregivers and busy professionals experienced significantly greater time stress and completed fewer preparations, while those with flexible routines reported less stress. We also found that perceived timely warnings alleviated time insufficiency, but this benefit diminished with the onset of the second hurricane. Despite less time spent on preparation and fewer uncompleted tasks, participants reported higher time stress for the second event. Our findings highlight the need for targeted, timely alerts and institutional measures, such as flexible work arrangements and caregivers support, to address structural time poverty and improve disaster readiness, especially under compound disasters.

灾害预警为准备工作提供了关键的提前时间，但人们如何利用这段时间取决于他们的日常生活和需求。虽然先前的研究已经检查了备灾过程中的心理和人口脆弱性，但时间匮乏的影响——特别是在连续发生灾害时——很少受到关注。因此，一些群体可能会经历更大的时间压力，没有足够的时间准备，甚至面临更大的安全风险。因此，我们对飓风准备中的时间匮乏和时间利用进行了深入调查，重点关注了至少受到2024年连续飓风海伦和米尔顿其中一次影响的佛罗里达州社区。通过对1069名受飓风影响的居民进行地理定位调查，我们研究了时间贫困、就业状况、家庭责任和社会经济脆弱性如何影响时间使用、感知时间不足和时间压力。潜在阶层分析确定了五种常规的时间贫困特征，包括年轻的时间平衡工作者、时间丰富的非工作人员、富裕的专业人员、工作超负荷的照顾者和紧张的低收入照顾者。适度回归分析显示，时间不足的护理人员和忙碌的专业人员经历了更大的时间压力，完成的准备工作更少，而那些灵活的日常工作报告的压力更小。我们还发现，感知到的及时预警缓解了时间不足，但这种好处随着第二次飓风的到来而减弱。尽管花在准备上的时间更少，未完成的任务也更少，但参与者报告说，第二项活动的时间压力更大。我们的研究结果强调，需要有针对性的、及时的警报和制度措施，如灵活的工作安排和护理人员的支持，以解决结构性时间不足和提高灾害准备，特别是在复合灾害下。

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引用次数: 0