Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104905
In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, enhancing flood resilience is essential for mitigating urban flood risk. However, few studies have conducted long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluations of flood resilience and analyzed its influencing factors and mechanisms. Taking the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration as the study area, a long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluation index system based on the “Robustness-Resistance-Recovery” (3Rs) framework was developed to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of flood resilience from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the optimal parameters-based geographical detector model is employed to identify the key influencing factors and mechanisms. The results reveal that pre-flood robustness is lower in coastal areas and higher in inland areas. In the during-flood stage, cities with greater comprehensive power exhibit stronger resistance. Post-flood recovery is higher in city centers and marginal mountainous areas, while coastal and inland low-lying areas show lower recovery. The flood resilience of urban agglomerations has improved in recent years, largely due to the enhancement of urban flood control infrastructure and healthcare capacity. However, disparities between cities persist. From 2000 to 2020, economic factors have been the primary drivers of improved flood resilience, while ecological factors have gained increasing importance over the past decade. These findings provide valuable insights for flood prevention, mitigation, and resilience management in urban agglomerations. The developed dynamic evaluation index system offers a reference framework for evaluating flood resilience in other regions.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of flood resilience in Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104905","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104905","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, enhancing flood resilience is essential for mitigating urban flood risk. However, few studies have conducted long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluations of flood resilience and analyzed its influencing factors and mechanisms. Taking the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration as the study area, a long-term, cross-scale dynamic evaluation index system based on the “Robustness-Resistance-Recovery” (3Rs) framework was developed to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of flood resilience from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the optimal parameters-based geographical detector model is employed to identify the key influencing factors and mechanisms. The results reveal that pre-flood robustness is lower in coastal areas and higher in inland areas. In the during-flood stage, cities with greater comprehensive power exhibit stronger resistance. Post-flood recovery is higher in city centers and marginal mountainous areas, while coastal and inland low-lying areas show lower recovery. The flood resilience of urban agglomerations has improved in recent years, largely due to the enhancement of urban flood control infrastructure and healthcare capacity. However, disparities between cities persist. From 2000 to 2020, economic factors have been the primary drivers of improved flood resilience, while ecological factors have gained increasing importance over the past decade. These findings provide valuable insights for flood prevention, mitigation, and resilience management in urban agglomerations. The developed dynamic evaluation index system offers a reference framework for evaluating flood resilience in other regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104913
In disasters, volunteers who have not been affiliated to official disaster response organisations are likely to enter the scene. Although such unofficial responders (UR) are increasingly recognised as a valuable resource in both research and practice, their full utilisation, integration, and cooperation with the official response (OR) is rare. Although researchers have increasingly examined the barriers and drivers of UR involvement, this “involvement/exclusion paradox”, coined by Harris et al. (2017), remains puzzling. Applying a field-theoretical perspective, this paper argues that disasters are critical moments in which the field itself is put under pressure at multiple focal points. For instance, UR who enter the scene and try to become involved jeopardize the field: they increase the number of involved agents, increase the competition over symbolic profit, and question the definition of proper disaster response. Taking a case-study of a mudslide disaster in the Austrian Alps, this paper examines the strategies by which OR tame pressure associated with UR. Three strategies were revealed: boundary definition, boundary defence, and boundary opening, which aim at establishing and upholding boundaries by increasing both their robustness and elasticity. The findings contribute to a theoretically underpinned understanding of UR involvement and encourage critical reflection on the relations between UR and OR by revealing tensions and latent conflicts.
在灾害中，未加入官方救灾组织的志愿者很可能会进入现场。尽管在研究和实践中，人们越来越认识到这些非官方响应者（UR）是一种宝贵的资源，但他们的充分利用、整合以及与官方响应者（OR）的合作却很少见。尽管研究人员越来越多地研究了非官方响应者参与的障碍和驱动因素，但哈里斯等人（2017）提出的 "参与/排斥悖论 "仍然令人费解。本文从实地理论的角度出发，认为灾害发生的关键时刻，实地本身会在多个焦点上承受压力。例如，进入现场并试图参与其中的 UR 会危及该领域：他们增加了参与人员的数量，加剧了对象征性利益的争夺，并对正确救灾的定义提出质疑。本文通过对奥地利阿尔卑斯山泥石流灾害的案例研究，探讨了救灾组织如何应对与 UR 相关的压力。本文揭示了三种策略：边界定义、边界防御和边界开放，旨在通过增强边界的稳健性和弹性来建立和维护边界。研究结果有助于从理论上理解 UR 的参与，并通过揭示紧张关系和潜在冲突，鼓励对 UR 与 OR 之间的关系进行批判性反思。
{"title":"Understanding the involvement/exclusion paradox in disaster volunteering from a field-theoretical perspective","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104913","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104913","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In disasters, volunteers who have not been affiliated to official disaster response organisations are likely to enter the scene. Although such <em>unofficial responders</em> (UR) are increasingly recognised as a valuable resource in both research and practice, their full utilisation, integration, and cooperation with the <em>official response</em> (OR) is rare. Although researchers have increasingly examined the barriers and drivers of UR involvement, this “<em>involvement/exclusion paradox</em>”, coined by Harris et al. (2017), remains puzzling. Applying a field-theoretical perspective, this paper argues that disasters are critical moments in which the field itself is put under pressure at multiple focal points. For instance, UR who enter the scene and try to become involved jeopardize the field: they increase the number of involved agents, increase the competition over symbolic profit, and question the definition of proper disaster response. Taking a case-study of a mudslide disaster in the Austrian Alps, this paper examines the strategies by which OR tame pressure associated with UR. Three strategies were revealed: boundary definition, boundary defence, and boundary opening, which aim at establishing and upholding boundaries by increasing both their robustness and elasticity. The findings contribute to a theoretically underpinned understanding of UR involvement and encourage critical reflection on the relations between UR and OR by revealing tensions and latent conflicts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104955
Tropical cyclones (TCs), characterized by strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surges, and flooding, have caused significant economic losses and fatalities in coastal regions globally. However, existing TC risk prediction frameworks often fail to adequately account for the direct impacts of flooding. In this study, we propose integrating flood susceptibility, a critical component of flood early warning systems, into TC risk prediction frameworks. Focusing on Guangdong Province, we employ four tree-based machine learning (ML) models (random forest, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, and categorical boosting) to predict county-level direct economic losses (DELs) based on flood susceptibility, oceanographic-meteorological data, and vulnerability data. These ML models are trained and tested on a dataset of 896 samples, achieving high prediction accuracies, with Pearson correlation coefficients exceeding 0.81 between the predicted and observed DEL values. Among the four models, the light gradient boosting machine demonstrates the best performance, achieving the highest values of R and R2, and the lowest values of MSE, MAE, and MedAE. The integration of flood susceptibility is validated by comparing it with traditional methods that directly incorporate environmental factors. Furthermore, the proposed TC risk prediction framework is applied to forecast the impacts of Super Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, illustrating its potential ability for “real-time” TC risk assessments. These “real-time” DEL predictions not only estimate potential losses but also facilitate timely interventions, thereby enhancing the practical value of the model for disaster prevention and response.
{"title":"A tropical cyclone risk prediction framework using flood susceptibility and tree-based machine learning models: County-level direct economic loss prediction in Guangdong Province","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclones (TCs), characterized by strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surges, and flooding, have caused significant economic losses and fatalities in coastal regions globally. However, existing TC risk prediction frameworks often fail to adequately account for the direct impacts of flooding. In this study, we propose integrating flood susceptibility, a critical component of flood early warning systems, into TC risk prediction frameworks. Focusing on Guangdong Province, we employ four tree-based machine learning (ML) models (random forest, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, and categorical boosting) to predict county-level direct economic losses (DELs) based on flood susceptibility, oceanographic-meteorological data, and vulnerability data. These ML models are trained and tested on a dataset of 896 samples, achieving high prediction accuracies, with Pearson correlation coefficients exceeding 0.81 between the predicted and observed DEL values. Among the four models, the light gradient boosting machine demonstrates the best performance, achieving the highest values of R and R<sup>2</sup>, and the lowest values of MSE, MAE, and MedAE. The integration of flood susceptibility is validated by comparing it with traditional methods that directly incorporate environmental factors. Furthermore, the proposed TC risk prediction framework is applied to forecast the impacts of Super Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018, illustrating its potential ability for “real-time” TC risk assessments. These “real-time” DEL predictions not only estimate potential losses but also facilitate timely interventions, thereby enhancing the practical value of the model for disaster prevention and response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909
Storm tides, which combine sea level rise (SLR), astronomical tides, and storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, pose significant threats to coastal zones, leading to flooding and substantial damage to property and infrastructure.There is a clear upward trend in the frequency of storms reaching tropical cyclone strength. A notable example is Cyclone Belal, which struck Mauritius on January 2024, during high tide, causing extensive infrastructure damage. This underscores the importance of conducting risk assessments to identify vulnerable areas and develop risk reduction strategies. However, quantitative risk assessments of storm tides are often challenging due to the lack of long-term projections. To address this, we developed a GIS-based flood model for Mauritius to simulate inundation areas and quantify the assets exposed to flooding. Under current conditions, the estimated damage exposure from extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 50–500 years is significant, with 6.2 % and 27.1 % of the area inundated, respectively. By 2100, damage exposure associated with these events is projected to increase by a factor of 1.1, with minimal variation between sea-level rise scenarios (0.3m). However, by 2200 and 2300, damage exposure is expected to rise by factors of 3.1 and 6.6, respectively. In the worst-case scenario for 2500, Mauritius could experience maximum inundation of 66.3 km2, with buildings covering 5.02 km2 submerged. Additionally, this study presents a detemporalized inundation scenario to assess impacts from any coastal flood event. This approach enables the identification of critical thresholds (1.5 m and 4.5 m) and, beyond which significant increases in damage exposure are likely, and allows for evaluating adaptation strategies against user-defined levels of change, rather than relying solely on predefined scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategic sectoral interventions to address the widespread consequences of coastal inundation, especially in light of critical thresholds for remedial action.
{"title":"Assessment of tangible coastal inundation damage related to critical infrastructure and buildings: The case of Mauritius Island","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104909","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Storm tides, which combine sea level rise (SLR), astronomical tides, and storm surges generated by tropical cyclones, pose significant threats to coastal zones, leading to flooding and substantial damage to property and infrastructure.There is a clear upward trend in the frequency of storms reaching tropical cyclone strength. A notable example is Cyclone Belal, which struck Mauritius on January 2024, during high tide, causing extensive infrastructure damage. This underscores the importance of conducting risk assessments to identify vulnerable areas and develop risk reduction strategies. However, quantitative risk assessments of storm tides are often challenging due to the lack of long-term projections. To address this, we developed a GIS-based flood model for Mauritius to simulate inundation areas and quantify the assets exposed to flooding. Under current conditions, the estimated damage exposure from extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 50–500 years is significant, with 6.2 % and 27.1 % of the area inundated, respectively. By 2100, damage exposure associated with these events is projected to increase by a factor of 1.1, with minimal variation between sea-level rise scenarios (0.3m). However, by 2200 and 2300, damage exposure is expected to rise by factors of 3.1 and 6.6, respectively. In the worst-case scenario for 2500, Mauritius could experience maximum inundation of 66.3 km<sup>2</sup>, with buildings covering 5.02 km<sup>2</sup> submerged. Additionally, this study presents a detemporalized inundation scenario to assess impacts from any coastal flood event. This approach enables the identification of critical thresholds (1.5 m and 4.5 m) and, beyond which significant increases in damage exposure are likely, and allows for evaluating adaptation strategies against user-defined levels of change, rather than relying solely on predefined scenarios. These findings highlight the urgent need for strategic sectoral interventions to address the widespread consequences of coastal inundation, especially in light of critical thresholds for remedial action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920
Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial "technology-based" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km2) and 0.84 % (8.16 km2) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km2), 0.13 % (1.31 km2) and 0.03 % (0.33 km2) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km2) and 0.07 % (0.65 km2) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.
{"title":"Geospatial analysis of alarmingly increasing flood vulnerability and disaster risk within the northeast himalaya region of India","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geoenvironmetally the eastern part of the Himalaya region is highly vulnerable to flood and other natural disasters as it consists of fragmented and tectonically active geology and geomorphology, very high monsoon rainfall (>360 cm) and subsequent runoff, rugged hilly terrain with high ranges of elevation and slope, dense drainage density etc. Other hand, the unplanned developmental activities keep going and scaling up this vulnerability and risk to floods and other disasters. Addressing this burning issue, a geospatial technology-based case study of the Kohima district, Nagaland state (India), is presented here. The geospatial \"technology-based\" analyses employed in the study are thematic GIS mapping of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk controlling factors; and performing overlay operation using the AHP model in GIS software to generate spatio-temporal map layers of flood vulnerability and disaster risk. Results reveal that the region is under a high rate of monsoon climate change (increasing temperature, rainfall, rainy days, rainfall events and flood events with an annual rate of 0.35 %, 1.12 %, 0.36 %, 2.67 % and 4 % respectively), land use degradation (increasing built-up area with 0.60 %, annual rate decreasing forest, shrubs and water bodies with 0.80 % accumulated annual rates respectively) and demographic changes (increasing urban as well and rural population density with 0.53–2.10 % and 0.55–2.14 % respectively). Accumulated impacts of climate change, land use degradation and demographic changes causing an increase in flood hazard, vulnerability and disaster risk. Flood hazard zones and vulnerability zones extending with 0.50 % (4.89 km<sup>2</sup>) and 0.84 % (8.16 km<sup>2</sup>) annual rates respectively, subsequently the flood risk zones categorized as a moderate, high and very high potential risk, have been spreading out with a yearly rate of 0.07 % (0.65 km<sup>2</sup>), 0.13 % (1.31 km<sup>2</sup>) and 0.03 % (0.33 km<sup>2</sup>) respectively. It decreases the area under low and very low-risk zones by 0.17 % (1.63 km<sup>2</sup>) and 0.07 % (0.65 km<sup>2</sup>) annual rates respectively. Following up on these annual rates, the spatial distribution of flood hazard, vulnerability and risk zones for the next decade (2031–2040) have also been projected, revealing alarming situations, if flood disaster risk reduction (F-DRR) measures were not implemented in timely. It is strongly believed that the proposed study will be very useful for district-level planners and administrators to implement sustainable development planning, for the scientific fraternity to enhance their research work in the field of flood disaster management and for individuals for their safety in terms of life and property.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900
The development of emergency preparedness and response skills is crucial for ensuring individual safety and well-being during natural disasters. Realistic and engaging games can effectively promote these skills. This paper explores the impact of introducing additional game objects as distractors and time pressure on user experience and willingness to prepare for emergencies in an Augmented Reality (AR) game. Additional, distracting game elements and time pressure are included in the game scenario to simulate the cognitive demands and stress experienced in real emergency situations. To investigate the impact of distracting game elements and time pressure, a within-subjects study was conducted with 52 participants who played two different versions of an AR game designed to help locate recommended items for an emergency grab bag. In the first version, participants focused solely on finding the recommended items, while in the second version, distractors and a timer were introduced to emphasize the urgency of packing the bag. The results showed no significant difference in user experience between the two versions. However, the version with time pressure and distractors demonstrated a significant improvement in attitudes and perceived behavioral control regarding immediate actions in response to evacuation warnings. Qualitative feedback from participants supported these effects. These findings suggest new directions for further research and highlight the potential of AR games to enhance emergency response strategies.
培养应急准备和响应技能对于确保自然灾害期间的个人安全和福祉至关重要。逼真且引人入胜的游戏可以有效提高这些技能。本文探讨了在增强现实（AR）游戏中引入额外游戏对象作为干扰因素和时间压力对用户体验和应急准备意愿的影响。在游戏场景中加入了额外的、分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力，以模拟真实紧急情况下的认知需求和压力。为了研究分散注意力的游戏元素和时间压力的影响，我们对 52 名参与者进行了一项主体内研究，他们玩了两个不同版本的 AR 游戏，游戏的目的是帮助找到应急包的推荐物品。在第一个版本中，参与者只专注于寻找推荐物品，而在第二个版本中，则引入了干扰因素和计时器，以强调打包的紧迫性。结果显示，两个版本的用户体验没有明显差异。不过，有时间压力和分心因素的版本在应对疏散警告时立即采取行动的态度和感知行为控制方面有明显改善。参与者的定性反馈也支持这些效果。这些研究结果为进一步的研究提出了新的方向，并强调了 AR 游戏在增强应急响应策略方面的潜力。
{"title":"Exploring the effects of time pressure and distracting elements in an Augmented Reality game for emergency preparedness","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of emergency preparedness and response skills is crucial for ensuring individual safety and well-being during natural disasters. Realistic and engaging games can effectively promote these skills. This paper explores the impact of introducing additional game objects as distractors and time pressure on user experience and willingness to prepare for emergencies in an Augmented Reality (AR) game. Additional, distracting game elements and time pressure are included in the game scenario to simulate the cognitive demands and stress experienced in real emergency situations. To investigate the impact of distracting game elements and time pressure, a within-subjects study was conducted with 52 participants who played two different versions of an AR game designed to help locate recommended items for an emergency grab bag. In the first version, participants focused solely on finding the recommended items, while in the second version, distractors and a timer were introduced to emphasize the urgency of packing the bag. The results showed no significant difference in user experience between the two versions. However, the version with time pressure and distractors demonstrated a significant improvement in attitudes and perceived behavioral control regarding immediate actions in response to evacuation warnings. Qualitative feedback from participants supported these effects. These findings suggest new directions for further research and highlight the potential of AR games to enhance emergency response strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930
Fragility curves (FCs) are extended decision-making tools for estimating the structural performance of systems exposed to seismic hazards. However, selecting an inappropriate FC can significantly affect the accuracy of loss and damage calculations in seismic risk assessments.
This article enhances the “Select.FC” method, a recently proposed novel approach that allows the selection of FCs with a higher degree of reliability. This method utilizes a multidimensional index incorporating a comprehensive set of variables about various aspects of FCs. A calibration and validation process is conducted on the variable scores of this multidimensional index based on a worldwide survey of experts. The implementation of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method further enhances the objectivity and dependability of the scores calculated from the experts' responses.
The proposed approach not only allows for the evaluation of FCs but also provides a practical tool for researchers. This evaluation of FCs is crucial, as it enhances the accuracy and reliability of seismic vulnerability and risk assessments.
The results obtained from the expert survey and the FAHP reveal several discrepancies between the calibrated new scores assigned to specific variables and those proposed in the original methodology. However, in the aggregate, these discrepancies disappear. Therefore, the “Select.FC” method and its proposed classification of FCs into six categories based on the score obtained in the final multidimensional index seem quite robust regarding important changes in the weights of some of the variables.
{"title":"A methodology to assess and select seismic fragility curves: Calibration from expert survey and fuzzy analysis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104930","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fragility curves (FCs) are extended decision-making tools for estimating the structural performance of systems exposed to seismic hazards. However, selecting an inappropriate FC can significantly affect the accuracy of loss and damage calculations in seismic risk assessments.</div><div>This article enhances the “Select.FC” method, a recently proposed novel approach that allows the selection of FCs with a higher degree of reliability. This method utilizes a multidimensional index incorporating a comprehensive set of variables about various aspects of FCs. A calibration and validation process is conducted on the variable scores of this multidimensional index based on a worldwide survey of experts. The implementation of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method further enhances the objectivity and dependability of the scores calculated from the experts' responses.</div><div>The proposed approach not only allows for the evaluation of FCs but also provides a practical tool for researchers. This evaluation of FCs is crucial, as it enhances the accuracy and reliability of seismic vulnerability and risk assessments.</div><div>The results obtained from the expert survey and the FAHP reveal several discrepancies between the calibrated new scores assigned to specific variables and those proposed in the original methodology. However, in the aggregate, these discrepancies disappear. Therefore, the “Select.FC” method and its proposed classification of FCs into six categories based on the score obtained in the final multidimensional index seem quite robust regarding important changes in the weights of some of the variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940
Currently, 1 billion residents inhabit informal settlements characterized by a lack of urban services, inadequate housing, insecure land tenure, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related hazards. With minimal governmental support, these communities bear the burden of managing climate risks. This systematic review utilized Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify and synthesize peer-reviewed literature investigating global climate-related hazards in informal settlements over the past 23 years. Search terms included "Informal Settlements OR Slums" AND "Landslide" OR "Heat Stress" OR "Heatwaves " OR "Urban Heat Island" OR "Flooding" OR "Water Scarcity". The review reveals a rising trend in published articles on climate-related hazards in informal settlements, particularly in the last six years. Of the 415 papers identified, the majority (approximately 70 %) focus on flood risk impacts and adaptation measures. We identified six emerging trends, including 1) gender analysis, 2) scaling demographies, 3) adaption actions, 4) transferability, 5) GIS and remote sensing, and 6) building climate resilience. Despite the prevalence of high temperatures in informal settlement areas, studies addressing heat-related hazards, such as heat stress or Urban Heat Island, are underdeveloped. Individuals or households predominantly carry out risk reduction and adaptation efforts, with few transformative, multi-stakeholder initiatives observed. Developing a transferable, community-based climate risk assessment model could significantly enhance resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and disaster risks in informal settlements, emphasizing the need for collaborative, multi-scale strategies.
{"title":"A global (South) collective burden: A systematic review of the current state of climate-related hazards in informal settlements","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104940","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, 1 billion residents inhabit informal settlements characterized by a lack of urban services, inadequate housing, insecure land tenure, and heightened vulnerability to climate-related hazards. With minimal governmental support, these communities bear the burden of managing climate risks. This systematic review utilized Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify and synthesize peer-reviewed literature investigating global climate-related hazards in informal settlements over the past 23 years. Search terms included \"Informal Settlements OR Slums\" AND \"Landslide\" OR \"Heat Stress\" OR \"Heatwaves \" OR \"Urban Heat Island\" OR \"Flooding\" OR \"Water Scarcity\". The review reveals a rising trend in published articles on climate-related hazards in informal settlements, particularly in the last six years. Of the 415 papers identified, the majority (approximately 70 %) focus on flood risk impacts and adaptation measures. We identified six emerging trends, including 1) gender analysis, 2) scaling demographies, 3) adaption actions, 4) transferability, 5) GIS and remote sensing, and 6) building climate resilience. Despite the prevalence of high temperatures in informal settlement areas, studies addressing heat-related hazards, such as heat stress or Urban Heat Island, are underdeveloped. Individuals or households predominantly carry out risk reduction and adaptation efforts, with few transformative, multi-stakeholder initiatives observed. Developing a transferable, community-based climate risk assessment model could significantly enhance resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and disaster risks in informal settlements, emphasizing the need for collaborative, multi-scale strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935
There are a large number of high-value heritage sites in the historic villages preserved in the mountainous areas of southern China. These sites are exposed to major fire risks due to their compact layout and wooden building materials. By improving the fire risk assessment method for engineering (FRAME), we proposed a dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages. On one hand, a balance between universality and pertinence was established regarding the assessment indexes and weighting system by integrating general factors with unique regional factors. On the other hand, a connecting link between prescriptive fire codes and performance-based design adjustments was established through the cyclic operation path of assessment-intervention-reassessment. Xiaozhai village, which has experienced serious fire incidents, was selected as an example. Its original fire risk, established fire interventions, actual fire results, and optimized fire protection plan were compared and analyzed to validate the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment method. This study reveals the correlation between various factors of the village and building fire risk. Among these factors, building proximity, traditional customs, and fire protection layout, which are not included in the original FRAME, have a significant impact on fire risk. The results of this study can serve as a reference for fire prevention in historic villages with similar characteristics worldwide. Additionally, the proposed methodology can provide insights into the development of fire risk assessment methods for various types of historical settlements, thus promoting the sustainable development of built heritage in these settlements.
{"title":"A dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages based on the improved FRAME","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are a large number of high-value heritage sites in the historic villages preserved in the mountainous areas of southern China. These sites are exposed to major fire risks due to their compact layout and wooden building materials. By improving the fire risk assessment method for engineering (FRAME), we proposed a dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages. On one hand, a balance between universality and pertinence was established regarding the assessment indexes and weighting system by integrating general factors with unique regional factors. On the other hand, a connecting link between prescriptive fire codes and performance-based design adjustments was established through the cyclic operation path of assessment-intervention-reassessment. Xiaozhai village, which has experienced serious fire incidents, was selected as an example. Its original fire risk, established fire interventions, actual fire results, and optimized fire protection plan were compared and analyzed to validate the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment method. This study reveals the correlation between various factors of the village and building fire risk. Among these factors, building proximity, traditional customs, and fire protection layout, which are not included in the original FRAME, have a significant impact on fire risk. The results of this study can serve as a reference for fire prevention in historic villages with similar characteristics worldwide. Additionally, the proposed methodology can provide insights into the development of fire risk assessment methods for various types of historical settlements, thus promoting the sustainable development of built heritage in these settlements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932
Since we cannot predict earthquakes, it is critical to better anticipate them and thus to save time in enabling timely implementation of appropriate protection measures. To this end, several types of tools based on real-time monitoring have been proposed over the past ten years, namely: Operational Earthquake (or Aftershock) Forecasting, (ii) Earthquake Early Warning and (iii) Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems. This paper assesses the opportunity to transfer these three socio-technical systems into operational tools for the territory of Martinique (French West Indies), and more generally for the Lesser Antilles regions.
The research design relies on an user-centered approach based on an in-depth three-steps consultation of stakeholders in the territory of Martinique, by implementing (i) an online survey, (ii) a targeted interview with key actors and finally (iii) a workshop bringing together all stakeholders. This sequential consultation approach enables to start from individual considerations and to progressively refine the diagnosis of the applicability of earthquake alerting tools, first for each type of entity, then for the territory as a whole. Coupled with an analysis of international experience in seismic alerting and the regional context of seismic risk governance, this leads to the elaboration of perspectives at three scales: (i) the local scale of Martinique, (ii) the regional scale of the French West Indies on one hand, and of Lesser Antilles on the other, and (iii) the international scale. In particular, the findings of this study emphasize the need for an “informational continuum” of decision support for practitioners before, during and after the occurrence of earthquakes and their aftershocks. This leads to a reconsideration of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems as intrinsically complementary, while not having the same level of operational applicability.
{"title":"Co-defining a user-based desirable future for seismic alert systems with stakeholders: application to martinique, French west indies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since we cannot predict earthquakes, it is critical to better anticipate them and thus to save time in enabling timely implementation of appropriate protection measures. To this end, several types of tools based on real-time monitoring have been proposed over the past ten years, namely: Operational Earthquake (or Aftershock) Forecasting, (ii) Earthquake Early Warning and (iii) Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems. This paper assesses the opportunity to transfer these three socio-technical systems into operational tools for the territory of Martinique (French West Indies), and more generally for the Lesser Antilles regions.</div><div>The research design relies on an user-centered approach based on an in-depth three-steps consultation of stakeholders in the territory of Martinique, by implementing (i) an online survey, (ii) a targeted interview with key actors and finally (iii) a workshop bringing together all stakeholders. This sequential consultation approach enables to start from individual considerations and to progressively refine the diagnosis of the applicability of earthquake alerting tools, first for each type of entity, then for the territory as a whole. Coupled with an analysis of international experience in seismic alerting and the regional context of seismic risk governance, this leads to the elaboration of perspectives at three scales: (i) the local scale of Martinique, (ii) the regional scale of the French West Indies on one hand, and of Lesser Antilles on the other, and (iii) the international scale. In particular, the findings of this study emphasize the need for an “informational continuum” of decision support for practitioners before, during and after the occurrence of earthquakes and their aftershocks. This leads to a reconsideration of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems as intrinsically complementary, while not having the same level of operational applicability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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