International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

Prevalence and predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder among survivors of the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye: The case of a temporary camp 2023 年土耳其地震幸存者中创伤后应激障碍的患病率和预测因素：临时营地案例

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104976

Edip Kaya , Ebru Inal Onal , Sultanay Fatih , Onur Güler

This study aimed to evaluate the potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among survivors of the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes and determine the factors linked to the severity of PTSD. The cross-sectional study was conducted in a temporary camp in Hatay between January 27 and February 2, 2024, approximately one year after the earthquakes. Two researchers visited the camp and offered participation to all the adults who met the study criteria. A total of 412 adults agreed to participate in the study and completed the questionnaire. A survey was used to gather information on various variables related to the context before, during, and after an earthquake. In addition, the Post-Traumatic Diagnostic Scale and the Brief Resilience Scale were used to measure PTSD and resilience, respectively. The screening scale indicated that 17.5 % of participants met the criteria for probable “severe” and 36.2 % met the criteria for probable “moderate to severe” PTSD, approximately 12 months post-earthquake. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that PTSD was predicted by various factors in the within-, pre-, and post-earthquake periods. Among pre-earthquake variables, sex (β = 0.100, p < 0.05) and history of psychiatric illness (β = 0.098, p < 0.01) predict PTSD. Among within-earthquake variables, severity of earthquake exposure (β = 0.190, p < 0.001) predicted PTSD. Among post-earthquake variables, resilience (β = −0.378, p < 0.001) was negatively associated with severity of PTSD. These findings underscore the significance of considering multiple factors when comprehending and addressing PTSD in the aftermath of a natural disaster.

本研究旨在评估 2023 年土耳其地震幸存者中创伤后应激障碍 (PTSD) 的潜在患病率，并确定与创伤后应激障碍严重程度相关的因素。这项横断面研究于 2024 年 1 月 27 日至 2 月 2 日，即地震发生约一年后，在哈塔伊的一个临时营地进行。两名研究人员访问了营地，并向所有符合研究标准的成年人发出了参加研究的邀请。共有 412 名成年人同意参与研究并填写了调查问卷。调查用于收集地震前、地震期间和地震后与环境有关的各种变量的信息。此外，还使用创伤后诊断量表和简易复原力量表分别测量创伤后应激障碍和复原力。筛查量表显示，在震后约 12 个月，17.5% 的参与者符合可能的 "重度 "创伤后应激障碍标准，36.2% 的参与者符合可能的 "中度至重度 "创伤后应激障碍标准。多元线性回归分析表明，创伤后应激障碍可由震中、震前和震后的各种因素预测。在震前变量中，性别（β = 0.100，p < 0.05）和精神病史（β = 0.098，p < 0.01）可预测创伤后应激障碍。在震内变量中，地震暴露的严重程度（β = 0.190，p < 0.001）可预测创伤后应激障碍。在震后变量中，复原力（β = -0.378，p < 0.001）与创伤后应激障碍的严重程度呈负相关。这些发现强调了在理解和解决自然灾害后创伤后应激障碍时考虑多种因素的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive capacity of homeowners in Ghana to improve technical and social flood resilience 加纳房主提高技术和社会抗洪能力的适应能力

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104953

Helene Meyer , Georg Johann , Mariele Evers

Increasing flood resilience involves the implementation of structural and non-structural measures by homeowners to comprehend adaptive capacity to the impacts to flood events. Analyzing homeowners' technical and social capacity creates more knowledge and helps to understand how prepared a system is and what specific actions should be taken. This is the basis for recommending appropriate adaptation measures and increasing resilience. The study identifies homeowners' social and technical capacity aspects in Ghana, West Africa, to effectively improve their resilience. Ghana is particularly vulnerable to flooding, and its flood risk management (FRM) strategy is gradually evolving to encompass a greater role for homeowners. To gain insight into the factors influencing homeowners' capacity to implement measures, a quantitative research design comprising a household survey was employed in three study areas (Accra, Kumasi, and White Volta) with 1168 participating homeowners. The results offered insights into the high risk perception and respondents’ motivation, the significant challenges they face in coping with flood events, their limited knowledge of effective measures, and the heterogeneous implementation barriers and support needs across the region. Based on these findings, this paper outlines the practical implications, actionable steps, and sustainable strategies that can be employed with the FLOODLABEL_GHANA tool for resilience improvement.

提高抗洪能力涉及房主实施结构性和非结构性措施，以提高对洪水事件影响的适应能力。通过分析房主的技术和社会能力，可以获得更多知识，有助于了解系统的准备程度以及应采取的具体行动。这是推荐适当的适应措施和提高抗灾能力的基础。本研究确定了西非加纳房主的社会和技术能力方面，以有效提高他们的抗灾能力。加纳特别容易受到洪水的影响，其洪水风险管理（FRM）战略正在逐步发展，使房主发挥更大的作用。为了深入了解影响房主实施措施能力的因素，我们在三个研究地区（阿克拉、库马西和怀特沃尔特）采用了包括家庭调查在内的定量研究设计，共有 1168 名房主参与。研究结果有助于深入了解受访者的高风险感知和动机、他们在应对洪水事件时面临的重大挑战、他们对有效措施的有限了解以及整个地区不同的实施障碍和支持需求。基于这些发现，本文概述了使用 "加纳洪水标签 "工具提高抗灾能力的实际意义、可行步骤和可持续战略。

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引用次数: 0

A participatory foresight approach in disaster risk management: The multi-risk storylines 灾害风险管理中的参与式展望方法：多重风险故事情节

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104972

Claudio Marciano , Antonella Peresan , Andrea Pirni , Massimiliano Pittore , Gabriella Tocchi , Anna Maria Zaccaria

引用次数: 0

Risk assessment of urban infrastructure vulnerability to meteorological disasters: A case study of Dongguan, China 城市基础设施易受气象灾害影响的风险评估：中国东莞案例研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104943

Fan Li , Yan Li , Matteo Rubinato , Yu Zheng , Tao Zhou

Effective forecasting and response to meteorological hazards are crucial for safeguarding life, property, and supporting sustainable socioeconomic development. With the rising frequency and severity of meteorological hazards worldwide, this study proposes an enhanced risk assessment framework for urban infrastructure exposed to extreme weather events, with a focus on cascading impacts to critical services such as electricity, communication, and transportation networks (roads and subways). A disaster-loss model is developed to quantify infrastructure vulnerability at various spatial and temporal scales under heavy rainfall conditions, accounting for secondary effects. The model's performance is validated through empirical analysis of a 15-year rainfall event in Dongguan City, China, occurring from September 7–8, 2023. Results indicate the model's ability to predict real-event outcomes with approximately 70% accuracy. This model offers valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, aiding decision-makers in optimizing emergency resource allocation, enhancing disaster response efficiency, and issuing timely public risk warnings to minimize losses.

有效预测和应对气象灾害对于保障生命财产安全和支持可持续社会经济发展至关重要。随着全球气象灾害的频率和严重程度不断上升，本研究提出了一个针对受极端天气事件影响的城市基础设施的强化风险评估框架，重点关注对电力、通信和交通网络（道路和地铁）等关键服务的连带影响。我们开发了一个灾害损失模型，用于量化强降雨条件下不同时空尺度的基础设施脆弱性，并考虑次生效应。通过对 2023 年 9 月 7-8 日发生在中国东莞市的 15 年降雨事件进行实证分析，验证了该模型的性能。结果表明，该模型能够预测真实事件的结果，准确率约为 70%。该模型为防灾减灾战略提供了宝贵的见解，有助于决策者优化应急资源配置，提高灾害响应效率，并及时发布公共风险预警，最大限度地减少损失。

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引用次数: 0

Disaster risk reduction education (DRRE) in elementary education of Pakistan: Challenges and scaling up endeavours 巴基斯坦初等教育中的减少灾害风险教育（DRRE）：挑战和扩大规模的努力

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104962

Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Nasir Abbas Khan , Wahid Ullah , Abid Khan , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Ayat Ullah , Avianto Amri

Disaster Risk Reduction Education (DRRE) plays a crucial role in building community resilience by equipping children with the knowledge and skills needed to respond to disasters and reduce vulnerabilities. School children are not only among the most vulnerable to disaster impacts but also serve as important agents of change by sharing DRR knowledge with their families and communities. Over the past decade, educational initiatives in Pakistan have gained momentum to mitigate disaster-related damages and foster resilience. This approach has been supported by numerous studies highlighting its effectiveness in achieving positive results. This study examines the factors that can either aid or impede the expansion of disaster risk reduction education for primary school students in four districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The study employed a multi-informant mixed-method approach that gathered data from multiple sources, including elementary school children, school personnel, and child-centered disaster risk reduction non-governmental organizations members. Many teachers in the study believed they could involve children in disaster preparedness and thought disaster risk reduction education should be taught in schools. The study identified six significant challenges (policy blueprint for DRR education, cognizance and availability of DRR educational materials, teacher’s competence to improve learning outcomes, strengthening school partnerships, allocating resources for optimal results, and giving children a voice) and proposed several policies recommendations for making progress. Although these issues may be prevalent in developing and developed nations, the suggested strategies may have applicability beyond the geographic confines of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

减少灾害风险教育（DRRE）通过向儿童传授应对灾害和减少脆弱性所需的知识和技能，在建设社区抗灾能力方面发挥着至关重要的作用。在校儿童不仅是最容易受到灾害影响的群体之一，而且还通过与家人和社区分享减灾知识，成为推动变革的重要力量。在过去的十年中，巴基斯坦的教育举措在减轻灾害造成的损失和提高抗灾能力方面取得了进展。许多研究都强调了这种方法在取得积极成果方面的有效性。本研究探讨了有助于或阻碍开伯尔巴图克瓦省四个地区的小学生扩大减少灾害风险教育的因素。研究采用了多信息混合方法，从多个来源收集数据，包括小学生、学校工作人员和以儿童为中心的减少灾害风险非政府组织成员。研究中，许多教师认为他们可以让儿童参与备灾，并认为应在学校开展减少灾害风险教育。该研究确定了六大挑战（减灾教育的政策蓝图、减灾教育材料的认知和可用性、教师提高学习成果的能力、加强学校伙伴关系、分配资源以取得最佳效果以及让儿童发表意见），并提出了若干政策建议以取得进展。虽然这些问题可能在发展中国家和发达国家普遍存在，但所建议的战略可能超越巴基斯坦开伯尔巴图克瓦省的地理范围。

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引用次数: 0

Do regional disaster risks determine insurance spending? Evidence from organised manufacturing factories in India 地区灾害风险决定保险支出吗？来自印度有组织制造工厂的证据

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104964

Sohini Bhowmik, Gopal Krishna Roy

Insurance is a crucial risk management tool for firms. This paper examines the factors determining insurance expenditure among organised manufacturing factories in India, focusing on the role of regional disaster risks. We gather information on insurance expenditure and other factory-level factors by utilizing unit-level data from the Annual Survey of Industries for 2018–19. We integrate this data with the spatial disaster risks index across Indian states, obtained from the Disaster Risks and Resilience in India report by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The state-level disaster risk index captures the regional risk environment that influences insurance expenditure at the factory level, even after accounting for factory-specific factors. We test various hypotheses on the determinants of factory-level insurance expenditure using the ordinary least squares method in a multiple linear regression framework. Given that the decision to spend on insurance reflects a corner solution problem, with a substantial share of factories reporting zero expenditure while others incur strictly positive amounts, we employ Tobit and Cragg's hurdle models to ensure robustness. Our results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between the location-based spatial disaster risks index and factory-level insurance expenditure. Factories located in a state with higher disaster risks spend significantly more on insurance expenditure. Among other factory-level factors, our findings indicate that factors such as gross value added, subsidies, the value of imported inputs, export share, type of organisation, age, the value of plant and machinery, and depreciation significantly affect insurance expenditure.

保险是企业重要的风险管理工具。本文研究了决定印度有组织制造业工厂保险支出的因素，重点关注地区灾害风险的作用。我们利用《2018-19 年度工业调查》中的单位层面数据，收集有关保险支出和其他工厂层面因素的信息。我们将这些数据与印度各邦的空间灾害风险指数相结合，后者来自印度政府内政部和联合国开发计划署（UNDP）的《印度的灾害风险和抗灾能力》报告。邦一级的灾害风险指数捕捉了影响工厂保险支出的地区风险环境，即使在考虑了工厂的特定因素之后也是如此。我们在多元线性回归框架下使用普通最小二乘法检验了有关工厂级保险支出决定因素的各种假设。鉴于保险支出的决定反映了一个角解问题，即相当一部分工厂的支出为零，而其他工厂的支出则完全为正数，我们采用了 Tobit 和 Cragg 的障碍模型来确保稳健性。我们的研究结果表明，基于地理位置的空间灾害风险指数与工厂的保险支出之间存在正相关，且在统计上具有显著性。位于灾害风险较高州的工厂的保险支出明显更高。在其他工厂层面的因素中，我们的研究结果表明，总附加值、补贴、进口投入品价值、出口份额、组织类型、年龄、厂房和机器价值以及折旧等因素对保险支出有显著影响。

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引用次数: 0

Tailings storage facilities in China: Historical failure incidents, existing status, and database-driven quantitative risk assessment 中国的尾矿库：历史故障事件、现状和数据库驱动的定量风险评估

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973

Chenxu Su , Nahyan M. Rana , Stephen G. Evans , Bijiao Wang , Shuai Zhang

Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have historically resulted in downstream consequences, including fatalities, economic harm, and environmental contamination. However, the nation-wide documentation on existing TSFs is incomplete, and the magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures are poorly quantified. These gaps have impeded ongoing efforts of risk assessment and mitigation. This study collates and analyzes new databases on historical TSF failures and existing TSFs in China. We report 143 TSF failures in China over the period 1957–2023, which exceeds the number (∼20) reported in previous studies. Magnitude-frequency statistics indicate that the mean return period for TSF failures in China with at least 10 fatalities is ∼5 years, while for those with released volumes >1 million m³ is ∼16 years. Our review confirms that there are at least 14,217 existing TSFs in China; therefore, the cumulative failure rate of TSFs in China is estimated to be ∼1 %. We supply a database of 1853 TSFs that lists the statistics such as storage volume and dam height. Using these datasets along with downstream demographic statistics, we undertake a regional risk assessment for Jilin Province, which identifies 11 TSFs with intolerable risks. Among these, the most critical TSF poses a potential loss of 175 lives. Our findings provide the most comprehensive picture of TSFs in China to date. We anticipate that this study will advance tailings disclosure practices in China and support screening-level risk assessments by provincial regulators to help prioritize community engagement and risk mitigation efforts.

中国的尾矿库（TSF）故障历来会造成下游后果，包括人员伤亡、经济损失和环境污染。然而，全国范围内有关现有尾矿库的文献资料并不完整，对故障的严重程度和频率统计也不够量化。这些差距阻碍了当前的风险评估和缓解工作。本研究整理并分析了有关中国历史上 TSF 故障和现有 TSF 的新数据库。我们报告了 1957-2023 年间中国发生的 143 起 TSF 故障，超过了以往研究报告的数量（20 起）。震级-频率统计表明，中国至少造成 10 人死亡的 TSF 故障的平均重现期为 5 年，而释放量达 100 万立方米的 TSF 故障的平均重现期为 16 年。我们的研究证实，中国现有的 TSF 至少有 14,217 个，因此，中国 TSF 的累计故障率估计为 1%。我们提供了一个包含 1853 座水电站的数据库，其中列出了蓄水量和坝高等统计数据。利用这些数据集和下游人口统计数据，我们对吉林省进行了区域风险评估，确定了 11 个存在不可容忍风险的水电站。其中，最严重的 TSF 可能会导致 175 人丧生。我们的研究结果提供了迄今为止中国 TSF 最全面的情况。我们预计这项研究将推动中国的尾矿披露实践，并支持省级监管机构进行筛选级风险评估，以帮助确定社区参与和风险缓解工作的优先次序。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing societal resilience through the whole-of-society approach to crisis preparedness: Complex adaptive systems perspective – The case of Finland 通过全社会危机防备方法增强社会复原力：复杂适应系统视角--芬兰案例

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944

Aino Ruggiero, Wojciech D. Piotrowicz, Lijo John

This study adopts a systemic view to investigate societal resilience within the whole-of-society framework for crisis preparedness, focusing on best practices, challenges, and solutions. Finland serves as the case study due to its pioneering position in crisis preparedness and its adoption of a comprehensive preparedness model that encompasses relationships and interactions among diverse stakeholders. In this study, the Finnish preparedness system is illustrated and analysed through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS). Data are collected through interviews with security actors representing different stakeholder groups, including civil society, businesses, and the public sector. An interpretative approach synthesises insights from literature, reports, and stakeholder interactions to co-create knowledge. The analysis covers the CAS tenets of context, relational constitution, adaptive capacity, emergence, and openness. The study presents an exploratory model anchored in CAS theory, incorporating key practices, processes, and adaptation loops integral to societal resilience from a systemic perspective in the Finnish context. From a theoretical point of view, this study contributes to CAS theory by exploring the role of context as a slow-changing variable, which is often considered a constant in CAS. Furthermore, while emergent behaviour is a critical component of CAS, most studies explore the emergent behaviour of a system within a short time span. However, the findings of this study highlight the importance of long-term emergent behaviour in addition to short-term behaviour. From a practical standpoint, this study not only explores best practices but also identifies the challenges of the Finnish system and provides a benchmark for other countries to develop their own crisis preparedness. However, replicating the system elsewhere may be challenging due to certain unique contextual factors.

本研究采用系统观点，在全社会危机准备框架内调查社会复原力，重点关注最佳实践、挑战和解决方案。芬兰在危机防备方面处于领先地位，并采用了包含不同利益相关者之间关系和互动的综合防备模式，因此将其作为案例进行研究。本研究从复杂适应系统（CAS）的角度对芬兰的备灾系统进行了说明和分析。数据是通过与代表不同利益相关者群体（包括民间社会、企业和公共部门）的安全行动者进行访谈收集的。解释性方法综合了从文献、报告和利益相关者互动中获得的见解，以共同创造知识。分析涵盖了文脉、关系构成、适应能力、新兴性和开放性等 CAS 原则。研究提出了一个以CAS理论为基础的探索性模型，从芬兰的系统角度出发，纳入了社会复原力不可或缺的关键实践、流程和适应循环。从理论的角度来看，本研究通过探索环境作为一个缓慢变化的变量所发挥的作用，为 CAS 理论做出了贡献。此外，虽然突发行为是 CAS 的重要组成部分，但大多数研究都是探讨系统在短时间内的突发行为。然而，本研究的结果强调了除短期行为外，长期突发行为的重要性。从实用的角度来看，这项研究不仅探讨了最佳做法，还明确了芬兰系统所面临的挑战，为其他国家发展本国的危机准备工作提供了一个基准。然而，由于某些独特的背景因素，在其他地方复制该系统可能具有挑战性。

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引用次数: 0

Investigating climate change adaptation strategies among informal residents in Kumasi through the lenses of the social action and social control theories 从社会行动和社会控制理论的角度调查库马西非正规居民的气候变化适应战略

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963

Michael Osei Asibey , Vivian Yeboah

The urban poor in informal settlements in Ghana remain exposed and vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Their exclusion from official adaptation interventions, undeniably, calls for social mechanisms to enable them to adapt to climate change hazards such as heatwaves and floods. Individuals may contribute to exacerbating climate-induced hazards or employ adaptation measures as a common practice or due to their connectedness to a group, as hypothesised by the social action and social control theories, respectively. There is, however, no known study on the empirical and theoretical contributions of these theories to influencing climate change adaptation efforts in urban Africa. At best, studies have looked at the importance of individual and community skills, and assets to adapting to climate change hazards. The study is underpinned by the social action and social control theories to explore how elements of the theories shape hazard reduction and adaptation efforts. 367 household interviews and, four focus group discussions were conducted in two of Kumasi's largest informal settlements – Aboabo and Asawase – in addition to seven relevant agency interviews. We found that most households employed several adaptation measures because they saw other residents do the same which was confirmed by the Chi-square test statistic (χ2 = 4.968, p < 0.000) and as hypothesised by the social action theory. Similarly, as hypothesised by the social control theory, we also found differences in the adaptation measures employed by households belonging to identified environment-related groups (χ2 = 21.465, p < 0.001). This was largely because among other activities, the education and training exercises undertaken by the groups influenced the knowledge levels of members about climate change hazards and adaptation measures. The groups offer emotional, monetary, material, and practical support to cope within the short-term; first to the members, and the general residents, who are affected by disasters. Generally, adopted measures to reduce adverse impacts and build adaptation were unsustainable. This study is among few studies that demonstrate the contribution of the social action and social control theories to managing and adapting to climate change and its associated impacts in African cities.

加纳非正规住区中的城市贫民仍然容易受到气候灾害的影响。不可否认，他们被排除在官方适应干预措施之外，这就要求建立社会机制，使他们能够适应热浪和洪水等气候变化危害。正如社会行动理论和社会控制理论分别假设的那样，个人可能会加剧气候灾害，或作为一种常见做法或由于与群体的联系而采用适应措施。然而，关于这些理论在影响非洲城市气候变化适应工作方面的经验和理论贡献，目前尚无任何已知研究。最多的研究只是探讨了个人和社区技能以及资产对适应气候变化危害的重要性。本研究以社会行动和社会控制理论为基础，探讨这些理论要素如何影响减灾和适应工作。我们在库马西最大的两个非正规居住区--阿博博和阿萨瓦斯--进行了 367 次家庭访谈和 4 次焦点小组讨论，此外还进行了 7 次相关机构访谈。我们发现，大多数家庭都采取了多项适应措施，因为他们看到其他居民也采取了同样的措施，这一点得到了卡方检验统计量（χ2 = 4.968, p <0.000）的证实，也符合社会行动理论的假设。同样，正如社会控制理论所假设的那样，我们还发现属于已确定的环境相关群体的家庭所采取的适应措施存在差异（χ2 = 21.465，p < 0.001）。这主要是因为除其他活动外，团体开展的教育和培训活动影响了成员对气候变化危害和适应措施的认识水平。这些小组首先为受灾害影响的成员和普通居民提供情感、金钱、物质和实际支持，帮助他们在短期内应对灾害。一般来说，为减少不利影响和建立适应能力而采取的措施是不可持续的。这项研究是为数不多的证明社会行动和社会控制理论有助于非洲城市管理和适应气候变化及其相关影响的研究之一。

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引用次数: 0

Normative learning generates behaviour change: The case of drowning prevention 规范学习促成行为改变：预防溺水案例

IF 4.2 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104942

Brian R. Cook , Peter Kamstra , Nicholas Harrigan , Jasmin Lawes , Robert Brander , James Bond , Tom Kompas

Drowning is a risk governance issue of global significance. The majority of coastal drownings occur at unpatrolled beaches. Interventions designed to influence public behaviours are measured in terms of ‘awareness raised’ and ‘intentions to act’ rather than actual ‘behaviours adopted’. As a result, up-scaling impacts defaults to the dubious assumption that the communication of information can raise societal-scale awareness that will result in societal-scale behaviour change. No interventions into coastal drowning prevention, though, have determined the impacts of raised awareness on actual behaviours and, as a result, interventions are presently blind to whether changed behaviours ‘spillover’ to unpatrolled locations; further, no research has applied mixed methods to explain the mechanisms of behaviour changes or spillover effects. We conducted an intervention that combines a 20-min safety lesson with a meaningful engagement involving active reflection. This intervention was paired with a control that involved the engagement only. The study was conducted at Lorne, Australia, and involved 12 lessons with approximately 600 participants; 4–6 months later, participants were contacted to measure impact. After screening for those who had returned to a beach and had had opportunity to alter their behaviours, statistical modelling shows that, relative to the control, the intervention significantly increased the number of risk mitigation behaviours adopted, the number of non-participants told, and the number of behaviour changes adopted at unpatrolled beaches. The major impact pathway of the intervention was normative learning rather than awareness raising. Qualitative analysis explains how the intervention supported normative learning (i.e., through reflection) and the mechanisms through which normative learning supported behaviour change (i.e., self-efficacy and altered worldview). We demonstrate a participatory methodology and innovative mixed-methods approach that results in actual behaviour changes that spillover to non-participants and to the locations where drownings concentrate. More broadly, the implications challenge awareness raising as the basis of risk management.

溺水是一个具有全球意义的风险治理问题。大多数沿海溺水事件都发生在没有巡逻的海滩上。旨在影响公众行为的干预措施是以 "提高意识 "和 "行动意愿 "而非实际 "采取的行为 "来衡量的。因此，扩大影响的假设是，信息传播可以提高全社会的意识，从而改变全社会的行为。但是，目前还没有任何预防沿海溺水的干预措施能确定提高意识对实际行为的影响，因此，干预措施目前还无法确定改变后的行为是否会 "溢出 "到未受监控的地点；此外，也没有任何研究采用混合方法来解释行为改变或溢出效应的机制。我们进行了一项干预，将 20 分钟的安全课程与涉及积极反思的有意义的参与结合起来。该干预措施与仅涉及参与的对照组配对。这项研究在澳大利亚洛恩进行，共有 12 节课，约 600 人参加；4-6 个月后，我们与参加者取得联系，以衡量其影响。在筛选出返回海滩并有机会改变行为的参与者后，统计模型显示，与对照组相比，干预措施显著增加了采用风险缓解行为的人数、未被告知的非参与者人数，以及在无人看守海滩采用行为改变的人数。干预措施的主要影响途径是规范性学习，而不是提高认识。定性分析解释了干预措施如何支持规范性学习（即通过反思），以及规范性学习支持行为改变的机制（即自我效能和改变世界观）。我们展示了一种参与式方法和创新的混合方法，这种方法导致了实际的行为改变，并波及到非参与者和溺水事件集中的地点。从更广泛的意义上讲，这对将提高认识作为风险管理的基础提出了挑战。

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