International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

Factors associated with increased preparedness for future bushfires after exposure to a severe bushfire in Australia 在澳大利亚经历了一场严重的森林大火后，与加强对未来森林大火的准备有关的因素

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106018

Ahlke Kip , Lisa Gibbs , Robyn Molyneaux , David Forbes , Colin MacDougall , H Colin Gallagher , Richard Bryant

When recurrent hazards are exacerbated by climate change, the recovery process from one hazard is closely linked to the preparedness for subsequent events. This study investigated associations of long-term bushfire preparedness after previous bushfire exposure, focusing on the Protective Action Decision Model and considering mental health as an additional explanatory variable. Participants included a sample from the Beyond Bushfire study which was conducted 3–4 years after the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires. Analyses were conducted on 1010 residents of Australian communities who were affected to varying degrees by the bushfires. Associated variables of increased bushfire preparedness were investigated using multivariable logistic regression analysis and included sociodemographic variables, risk perception of future bushfires, evaluation of personal choices during the bushfires, severity of exposure, community connectedness, exposure to subsequent hazards, and mental health. Risk perception was positively associated with increased preparedness, while sense of control over choices, comfort over choices made during the bushfires, and depression symptoms were associated with reduced odds of bushfire preparedness engagement. The findings suggest that personal accounts of previous bushfires may be more related to preparedness behaviours than objective disaster consequences. This finding points to the potential benefit of integrating mental health considerations into disaster preparedness and response policies. However, the model explained only 3.8 % of the differences in preparedness, highlighting the complexity of protective action prediction. More longitudinal research is necessary to improve our understanding of mental health influences.

当反复发生的灾害因气候变化而加剧时，从一种灾害中恢复的过程与对后续事件的准备密切相关。本研究调查了先前森林火灾暴露后长期森林火灾准备的关联，重点关注保护行动决策模型，并将心理健康作为一个额外的解释变量。参与者包括来自“超越丛林大火”研究的样本，该研究是在2009年黑色星期六森林大火发生3-4年后进行的。对1010名不同程度受到森林大火影响的澳大利亚社区居民进行了分析。使用多变量logistic回归分析调查了增加森林火灾准备的相关变量，包括社会人口变量、对未来森林火灾的风险感知、森林火灾期间个人选择的评估、暴露的严重程度、社区连通性、暴露于后续危害和心理健康。风险感知与准备工作的增加呈正相关，而对选择的控制感、对森林大火期间做出的选择的舒适感和抑郁症状与森林大火准备工作参与的几率降低有关。研究结果表明，个人对以前森林大火的描述可能更多地与准备行为有关，而不是客观的灾难后果。这一发现指出了将心理健康考虑纳入备灾和救灾政策的潜在好处。然而，该模型仅解释了3.8%的准备差异，突出了保护行动预测的复杂性。更多的纵向研究是必要的，以提高我们对心理健康影响的理解。

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引用次数: 0

A self-organized criticality model of extreme events and cascading disasters of hub-and-spoke air traffic networks 枢纽辐射型空中交通网络极端事件和级联灾害的自组织临界模型

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106009

Mary Lai O. Salvaña , Harold Jay M. Bolingot , Gregory L. Tangonan

Critical infrastructure networks, such as transportation, power grids, and communication systems, exhibit complex interdependencies that can lead to cascading failures with catastrophic consequences. These cascading disasters often originate from failures at critical points in the network, where single-node disruptions can propagate rapidly due to structural dependencies and high-impact linkages. Such vulnerabilities are exacerbated in systems that have been highly optimized for efficiency or have self-organized into fragile configurations over time. The air transportation system in the United States, built on a hub-and-spoke model, exemplifies this type of critical infrastructure. Its reliance on a limited number of high-throughput hubs means that even localized disruptions — particularly those triggered by increasingly frequent and extreme weather events — can initiate cascades with nationwide impacts. We introduce a novel application of the theory of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) to model and analyze cascading failures in such networks. Through a detailed case study of U.S. airline operations, we show how the SOC model exhibits the power-law distribution of disruptions and the long-tail risk of systemic failures, reflecting the real-world interplay between structural fragility and external shocks. Our approach enables quantitative assessment of network vulnerability, identification of critical nodes, and evaluation of proactive intervention strategies for disaster risk reduction. The results demonstrate that the SOC model successfully replicates the observed statistical patterns of disruption sizes — characterized by frequent small events and rare but severe cascading failures — offering a powerful systems-level framework for infrastructure resilience planning and emergency management. The model provides practitioners with actionable insights for anticipating and mitigating systemic risks in complex, interdependent systems.

关键的基础设施网络，如交通、电网和通信系统，表现出复杂的相互依赖性，可能导致连锁故障和灾难性后果。这些级联灾难通常源于网络中关键点的故障，其中单节点中断可能由于结构依赖和高影响连接而迅速传播。随着时间的推移，这些漏洞在高度优化效率或自组织成脆弱配置的系统中会加剧。美国的航空运输系统，建立在一个中心和辐条模式上，是这类关键基础设施的典范。它对数量有限的高吞吐量枢纽的依赖意味着，即使是局部的中断——特别是那些由日益频繁和极端天气事件引发的中断——也可能引发连锁反应，造成全国范围的影响。我们介绍了自组织临界（SOC）理论的一种新应用，以模拟和分析此类网络中的级联故障。通过对美国航空公司运营的详细案例研究，我们展示了SOC模型如何展示中断的幂律分布和系统性失败的长尾风险，反映了现实世界中结构脆弱性和外部冲击之间的相互作用。我们的方法能够对网络脆弱性进行定量评估，识别关键节点，并评估减少灾害风险的主动干预策略。结果表明，SOC模型成功地复制了观察到的中断规模的统计模式——其特征是频繁的小事件和罕见但严重的级联故障——为基础设施弹性规划和应急管理提供了强大的系统级框架。该模型为从业者提供了可操作的见解，以预测和减轻复杂、相互依赖的系统中的系统性风险。

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引用次数: 0

Floods and flats: Housing market responses to flood risk in Japan 洪水和公寓：日本房地产市场对洪水风险的反应

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.105997

Yanran Ye , Kenji Takeuchi

A significant portion of the global population resides in coastal areas and faces increasing flood risks. This study applies a hedonic pricing model to examine how flood risk affects residential property prices in Japan, using both plan-scale and maximum-scale flood maps. Our analysis indicates that apartments located within plan-scale flood zones are priced 8.5% lower than comparable units outside these zones, while under the maximum-scale flood scenario, prices decline by about 5.8%. Regional heterogeneity is pronounced, with flood risk effect being markedly stronger in metropolitan areas: properties within plan-scale flood zones experience a price reduction of around 25%, and those within maximum-scale zones see a nearly 20% decrease. Height-based analysis further reveals that the housing market incorporates interactions between expected flood depths and floor levels when valuing properties. In addition, the results suggest that Japan’s 2020 mandatory flood disclosure policy has likely strengthened the extent to which potential flood damage is reflected in property prices. These findings highlight the importance of integrating flood risk into climate adaptation planning, particularly in densely populated metropolitan regions.

全球很大一部分人口居住在沿海地区，面临着越来越大的洪水风险。本研究运用享乐定价模型，利用计划比例尺和最大比例尺洪水地图，考察洪水风险如何影响日本住宅物业价格。我们的分析表明，位于规划规模洪水区内的公寓价格比规划规模洪水区外的同类公寓价格低8.5%，而在最大规模洪水情景下，价格下降约5.8%。区域异质性明显，大都市地区的洪水风险效应明显更强：规划规模洪涝区内的房产价格下降了25%左右，而最大规模洪涝区内的房产价格下降了近20%。基于高度的分析进一步表明，在评估房产时，房地产市场包含了预期洪水深度和地板高度之间的相互作用。此外，研究结果表明，日本2020年的强制性洪水信息披露政策可能加强了潜在洪水损失在房地产价格中反映的程度。这些发现强调了将洪水风险纳入气候适应规划的重要性，特别是在人口密集的大都市地区。

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引用次数: 0

Climate extremes and rural livelihoods: Vulnerability and adaptation of aging farmers in the Philippines 极端气候与农村生计：菲律宾老年农民的脆弱性和适应能力

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106016

Emmanuel M. Preña, Cherrylyn P. Labayo

This study examines the vulnerability and adaptive responses of aging rice farmers in Philippine agrarian reform communities (ARCs) to intensifying climate extremes, including prolonged heat, drought, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability framework and extending the Protection Motivation Theory through the Risk, Coping, and Social Appraisal model, this study integrates structural, cognitive, and social dimensions of climate adaptation. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with older farmers, purposively sampled across three ARCs in Castilla, Sorsogon, Philippines, complemented by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Findings reveal a convergence of high exposure, elevated sensitivity, and uneven adaptive capacity, manifested in chronic heat-related physical strain, disrupted farming calendars due to unpredictable rainfall, and reliance on informal social networks as primary coping mechanisms amid limited institutional support. Farmers demonstrated strong risk appraisal, acknowledging the immediacy and severity of climate threats, yet adaptive action was constrained by low coping efficacy, limited financial and technological resources, and age-related physical limitations. Social appraisal emerged as a critical determinant of resilience, with cohesive farmer organizations and institutional support enabling effective collective adaptation, while weak social cohesion and limited institutional reach exacerbated vulnerability. Policy implications emphasize strengthening coping and social appraisal through targeted investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, tailored extension services for older farmers, community-based adaptation models, and social protection systems such as pensions, crop insurance, and emergency assistance. By addressing structural constraints while leveraging older farmers’ experiential knowledge, these interventions can enhance rural climate resilience and food security.

本研究探讨了菲律宾土地改革社区（ARCs）老龄化稻农对日益加剧的极端气候（包括持续高温、干旱、强降雨和热带气旋）的脆弱性和适应性反应。本研究在政府间气候变化专门委员会脆弱性框架的基础上，通过风险、应对和社会评价模型扩展了保护动机理论，整合了气候适应的结构、认知和社会维度。定性数据是通过对菲律宾卡斯蒂利亚、索索贡三个农村地区的老年农民进行深入访谈收集的，并辅以焦点小组讨论和关键信息提供方访谈。研究结果揭示了高暴露、高敏感性和不均匀适应能力的趋同，表现为慢性热相关的身体疲劳、由于不可预测的降雨而中断的农业日历，以及在有限的制度支持下依赖非正式社会网络作为主要应对机制。农民表现出较强的风险评估能力，承认气候威胁的紧迫性和严重性，但适应行动受到应对效率低、财政和技术资源有限以及与年龄相关的身体限制的制约。社会评价成为恢复力的关键决定因素，有凝聚力的农民组织和机构支持能够实现有效的集体适应，而社会凝聚力薄弱和机构影响力有限则加剧了脆弱性。政策影响强调通过有针对性地投资于气候适应型基础设施、为老年农民量身定制的推广服务、基于社区的适应模式以及养老金、作物保险和紧急援助等社会保护体系来加强应对和社会评估。通过解决结构性制约因素，同时利用老年农民的经验知识，这些干预措施可以增强农村的气候适应能力和粮食安全。

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引用次数: 0

Why we see risk differently: Socioeconomic dimensions of climate hazard and risk perceptions in Auckland, New Zealand 为什么我们对风险的看法不同：新西兰奥克兰气候危害的社会经济层面和风险认知

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106011

Iresh Jayawardena , Sandeeka Mannakkara , Guanghao Wang , Le Wen

Climate-related natural hazards such as floods and landslides pose increasing risks to urban communities. Understanding how diverse individuals perceive these risks is essential for designing effective disaster risk reduction strategies. This study investigates the multidimensional nature of risk perception and its socioeconomic determinants in Henderson-Massey, Auckland—one of New Zealand's most demographically varied urban regions.

Drawing on survey data from 206 residents, the study constructs a five-part Risk Perception Index encompassing cognitive, emotional, experiential, coping, and social trust dimensions. Using Ordinary Least Squares and logistic regression models, the analysis explores how variables such as age, gender, education, income, ethnicity, housing tenure, and place attachment influence both overall and dimension-specific risk perceptions.

Findings reveal that Māori and Pacific Islander respondents exhibit higher levels of cognitive awareness, emotional sensitivity, and coping intentions, yet report significantly lower trust in formal institutions. Income and education are positively associated with experiential and coping dimensions, while emotional distress is more prevalent among lower-income and female respondents. The study also identifies a risk perception paradox, where high exposure does not always translate into heightened concern or preparedness.

By highlighting the differentiated nature of risk perception across social groups, this research contributes to the growing body of literature on urban climate vulnerability and provides actionable insights for policymakers. Tailored, culturally responsive risk communication and inclusive governance are critical to enhancing resilience in multi-ethnic urban settings.

洪水和山体滑坡等与气候有关的自然灾害对城市社区构成越来越大的风险。了解不同个体如何看待这些风险对于设计有效的减少灾害风险战略至关重要。本研究在新西兰人口最多样化的城市地区之一奥克兰的亨德森-梅西调查了风险感知的多维性及其社会经济决定因素。基于对206名居民的调查数据，本研究构建了由认知、情感、经验、应对和社会信任五个维度组成的风险感知指数。使用普通最小二乘和逻辑回归模型，分析探讨了年龄、性别、教育、收入、种族、住房使用权和地方依恋等变量如何影响整体和特定维度的风险感知。研究结果显示，Māori和太平洋岛民受访者表现出更高水平的认知意识、情绪敏感性和应对意图，但对正式机构的信任度显著降低。收入和教育程度与经验和应对维度呈正相关，而情绪困扰在低收入和女性受访者中更为普遍。该研究还发现了一个风险认知悖论，即高度暴露并不总是转化为高度关注或准备。通过强调不同社会群体风险感知的差异性，本研究有助于增加城市气候脆弱性的文献，并为政策制定者提供可操作的见解。量身定制的、符合文化的风险沟通和包容性治理对于增强多民族城市环境中的复原力至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Long-term physical health impacts of disasters: Evidence from the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake 灾害对身体健康的长期影响：来自2006年日惹地震的证据

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106010

Rozana Himaz

This paper looks at the impact of the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake on physical health outcomes 18–24 months after the event. The data come from the longitudinal Indonesia Family Life Survey 2000 and 2007 for a sample of around 4400 individuals representing those affected by the earthquake and a carefully constructed control group. Health outcomes are measured using indices capturing long-term health (Activities of Daily Living), physical pain, sleep disturbance and the effect of chronic illness onset on the ability to take up paid work. These health outcomes are regressed on earthquake destruction and pre-hazard characteristics, accounting for endogeneity via instrumental variable estimation. The results show that a complete (100 %) loss of assets -experienced by over a fifth of those who lived in earthquake-affected areas- is associated with an 11 % increase in difficulty in daily activities relative to baseline and an 8 % increase in pain relative to the control group. It also shows that for the subset of respondents who experienced full asset loss and were diagnosed with at least one chronic illness since the quake, perceived limitations to take up paid work increased by 18.5 % relative to the control group average. Thus, the negative physical health impacts of the earthquake were persistent and significant suggesting the importance of post-disaster health and labour market support well beyond the emergency phase. These findings are highly relevant in the context of more recent disasters such as the 2023 Türkiye-Syria, Morocco and Afghanistan earthquakes where long-term health consequences and recovery strategies are still unfolding.

本文着眼于2006年日惹地震对震后18-24个月的身体健康结果的影响。这些数据来自2000年和2007年的纵向印度尼西亚家庭生活调查，样本包括大约4400名受地震影响的个人和一个精心构建的对照组。衡量健康结果的指标包括长期健康（日常生活活动）、身体疼痛、睡眠障碍以及慢性病对从事有偿工作能力的影响。这些健康结果根据地震破坏和灾前特征进行了回归，通过工具变量估计说明了内生性。研究结果表明，与对照组相比，生活在地震灾区的五分之一以上的人经历的完全（100%）财产损失与日常活动困难增加11%和疼痛增加8%有关。调查还显示，自地震以来经历了全部资产损失并被诊断出至少患有一种慢性病的受访者中，与对照组的平均水平相比，他们认为从事有偿工作的限制增加了18.5%。因此，地震对身体健康造成的负面影响是持久而重大的，这表明灾后健康和劳动力市场支持的重要性远远超出了紧急阶段。这些发现与最近发生的灾害高度相关，例如2023年叙利亚、摩洛哥和阿富汗地震，这些灾害的长期健康后果和恢复战略仍在展开。

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引用次数: 0

Factors influencing return migration after disaster relocation: Housing dissatisfaction and place attachment in the 2021 Mount Semeru eruption, Indonesia 影响灾后移民回归的因素：2021年印尼塞梅鲁火山喷发中的住房不满和地方依恋

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106007

Azura Calista Shafa Kamila , I Dewa Made Frendika Septanaya , Rajib Shaw , Adjie Pamungkas , Kesumaning Dyah Larasati

Disaster-induced relocation is a key disaster risk reduction strategy, yet many programs fail as households return to hazard-prone zones. This study investigates return migration intention among households displaced by the 2021 Mount Semeru eruption in Indonesia, based on a cross-sectional survey of 204 returnee households and analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS). The results show that both housing dissatisfaction (push) and place attachment (pull) significantly influence return migration intention, with housing dissatisfaction exerting a stronger effect (β = 0.630, f² = 0.781) than place attachment (β = 0.307, f² = 0.186), explaining 78.5 % of the variance. These findings reveal the fragility of relocation policies that treat housing as a purely technical intervention, as dissatisfaction with resettlement design and accessibility, combined with strong kinship ties and livelihood dependence, continue to drive households back to unsafe zones. Beyond its empirical contribution, the study advances theoretical debates by showing how inadequate resettlement amplifies processes of risk normalization, while socio-economic dependence and cultural identity sustain livelihood resilience and attachment under bounded rationality in conditions of uncertainty. Relocation success therefore requires multidimensional approaches that integrate community participation, livelihood continuity, cultural recognition, institutional trust, and regulatory measures prohibiting reoccupation of high-risk areas.

灾害引发的搬迁是减少灾害风险的一项关键战略，但由于家庭返回易发地区，许多项目都失败了。本研究基于对204个返回家庭的横断面调查，调查了2021年印度尼西亚塞梅鲁火山喷发后流离失所家庭的返回移民意愿，并使用结构方程模型-偏最小二乘法（SEM-PLS）进行了分析。结果表明，住房不满（推动）和地方依恋（拉动）均显著影响农民工返乡意愿，其中住房不满的影响（β = 0.630, f2 = 0.781）大于地方依恋（β = 0.307, f2 = 0.186），解释了78.5%的方差。这些发现揭示了将住房视为纯粹技术干预的搬迁政策的脆弱性，因为对重新安置设计和可达性的不满，再加上强烈的亲属关系和生计依赖，继续将家庭赶回不安全地区。除了其经验贡献之外，该研究还通过展示不充分的重新安置如何放大风险正常化过程，而社会经济依赖和文化认同如何在不确定条件下维持有限理性下的生计弹性和依恋，从而推进了理论辩论。因此，成功的搬迁需要多方面的方法，包括社区参与、生计连续性、文化认同、制度信任和禁止重新占领高风险地区的监管措施。

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引用次数: 0

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis 优化河流洪水缓解策略：成本效益和社会意识基础设施可行性分析的多目标方法

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106004

Linchao Luo , Chih-Shen Cheng , William Mobley , Katherine Lieberknecht , Juhyeon Kim , Fernanda Leite

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulation-in-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multi-objective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

有效的堤坝规划必须平衡资本成本、降低风险和社区优先事项。这些目标很少同时优化。本研究提出了一种可行性阶段的环内仿真框架，该框架将基于地形的洪水建模与社会感知的多目标优化器相结合。洪水风险以预期的年度暴露人口（EAEP）来衡量，通过整合年度超过概率（AEP）节点的暴露得到，反映了水文工程中心的减少洪水损失分析（HEC-FDA）的预期年度公式，但使用的是人而不是美元。每个情景的暴露量是通过将二元淹没掩模与种群表面叠加在水道水平来计算的。分配公平是通过群体利益份额（GBS）约束进行编码的，该约束要求高svi的地区至少获得年化福利的基线份额。资本成本由适合筛选的高度相关单位成本模型表示。本研究采用非支配排序遗传算法II （NSGA-II）并利用Pareto前沿进行可行性阶段决策，解决了GBS约束下成本和预期年曝光最小化的双目标问题。该框架通过基于地形的洪水建模geofflood实现，用于快速场景评估，并在德克萨斯州东南部进行了演示。结果揭示了成本、风险和社会效益之间的明确权衡，并确定了满足利益共享下限的非主导堤防高度配置。其贡献是一种可扩展的决策支持方法，该方法可操作预期的年度基于人口的风险，嵌入可执行的利益共享保证，并使用轻量级模拟在更高保真度的设计阶段之前探索大型设计空间。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing the resilience of wind energy infrastructure in Iowa: Flood risk assessment and site suitability analysis for critical infrastructure protection 加强爱荷华州风能基础设施的恢复能力：关键基础设施保护的洪水风险评估和场地适宜性分析

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106003

Ege Duran , Ibrahim Demir

As climate change increases the frequency and severity of hydrological hazards, understanding and reducing disaster risk to renewable energy infrastructure has become critical. Iowa, a national leader in wind energy generation, faces enhanced vulnerability due to the intersection of extensive wind turbine deployment and increasing flood risk. This study provides a comprehensive geospatial and statistical evaluation of flood exposure and site suitability for future installation of wind turbines across Iowa, using zonal statistics within buffer areas to evaluate spatial variation in elevation, soil drainage, flood depth, and mean wind profile. Correlation analysis reveals that turbine vulnerability is strongly linked to topographic variability (r ≈ 0.98), and soil characteristics (r ≈ 0.79), underscoring terrain as a key control on localized flood severity. Statewide results show that turbine exposure increases with spatial extent, from about 4 % near turbine bases to over 60 % at broader surroundings, underscoring the sensitivity of flood risk to buffer expansion and indicating that current siting practices may not sufficiently mitigate flood hazards. The research proposes targeted, data-driven recommendations for enhancing the resilience and continuity of wind generation as a vital component of the state's energy infrastructure. These insights support policymakers, engineers, and stakeholders in devising proactive flood mitigation strategies, reinforcing the reliability and security of Iowa's critical energy sector against evolving climate threats.

随着气候变化增加水文灾害的频率和严重程度，了解和减少可再生能源基础设施的灾害风险变得至关重要。爱荷华州在风力发电方面处于全国领先地位，由于风力涡轮机的广泛部署和洪水风险的增加，爱荷华州面临着更大的脆弱性。本研究对爱荷华州的洪水暴露和未来安装风力涡轮机的地点适宜性进行了全面的地理空间和统计评估，使用缓冲区内的分区统计来评估高程、土壤排水、洪水深度和平均风廓线的空间变化。相关分析表明，水轮机脆弱性与地形变异性（r≈0.98）和土壤特征（r≈0.79）密切相关，强调地形是局部洪水严重程度的关键控制因素。全州范围内的结果表明，涡轮机暴露度随着空间范围的扩大而增加，从涡轮机基地附近的约4%增加到更广泛环境的60%以上，这强调了洪水风险对缓冲区扩展的敏感性，并表明目前的选址做法可能不足以减轻洪水危害。该研究提出了有针对性的、数据驱动的建议，以提高风力发电的弹性和连续性，风力发电是该州能源基础设施的重要组成部分。这些见解支持政策制定者、工程师和利益相关者制定积极的洪水缓解战略，加强爱荷华州关键能源部门应对不断变化的气候威胁的可靠性和安全性。

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引用次数: 0

Construction material supply for post-Cyclone Gabrielle transport infrastructure recovery in New Zealand: Challenges and strategies 新西兰加布里埃尔飓风后交通基础设施恢复的建筑材料供应：挑战和策略

IF 4.5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

International journal of disaster risk reduction

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106005

Kenan Liu , Alice Chang-Richards , Seosamh B. Costello , Cécile L'Hermitte , Nan Li

A shortage of local construction materials and inefficient supply chains can severely impede post-disaster reconstruction and recovery. Yet, the extant literature offers limited insights into the material supply processes in relation to transport infrastructure recovery and extreme weather events. To address the gap, this paper adopted a case study approach, including literature reviews, semi-structured interviews and on-site observations, to examine the key challenges impeding material supply for the rapid recovery of transport networks following the 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand. Intervention measures and their effectiveness were also evaluated. The findings revealed that high-specification aggregates (e.g., sealing chips), asphalt concrete and rock armour experienced various supply issues, such as shortages, high haulage costs, delivery delays, and substandard quality. These problems primarily stemmed from six critical challenges, which fall into four domains: 1) geo-conditions, 2) resource management and allocation prioritisation, 3) supply chain planning and development, and 4) project governance and procurement management. The challenges interacted to create systematic complexity in material supply systems. While the intervention measures demonstrated promise in addressing these issues, the persistence of adverse outcomes underscores the necessity for future efforts to shift the focus upstream toward prevention and drive broader systemic transformation. Accordingly, a strategic framework was proposed to enhance construction material supply for rapid and effective transport infrastructure recovery after future extreme weather events.

当地建筑材料短缺和供应链效率低下可能严重阻碍灾后重建和恢复。然而，现有文献对与运输基础设施恢复和极端天气事件相关的材料供应过程提供了有限的见解。为了解决这一差距，本文采用了案例研究方法，包括文献综述、半结构化访谈和现场观察，以研究2023年新西兰“加布里埃尔”气旋袭击后阻碍运输网络快速恢复的材料供应的主要挑战。并对干预措施及其效果进行了评价。调查结果显示，高规格骨料（如密封片）、沥青混凝土和岩石装甲经历了各种供应问题，如短缺、高运输成本、交货延迟和质量不合格。这些问题主要源于六个关键挑战，分为四个领域：1)地理条件，2)资源管理和分配优先级，3)供应链规划和发展，4)项目治理和采购管理。这些挑战相互作用，使材料供应系统变得复杂。虽然干预措施显示出解决这些问题的希望，但持续存在的不良后果强调了未来努力将重点转向上游的预防和推动更广泛的系统转型的必要性。因此，提出了一个战略框架，以加强建筑材料供应，以便在未来极端天气事件发生后快速有效地恢复交通基础设施。

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